In a Super Bowl that’s rich with storylines that mainly center around the quarterbacks, let’s focus on the storylines that matter most to bettors—the spread and the total. With a number of trends, both recent and historical favoring each team, here’s what you need to know before placing a wager on Super Bowl 50.
It’s been mainly good news for the Panthers and their backers this season as the team enters the game with three straight covers. With the spread fluctuating since it was originally set on Sunday night, the Panthers are in the ballpark of being -4.5-point favorites at most sportsbooks, and this number should be music to the ears of anyone leaning towards Carolina. In games this season as a favorite of 4.5 or less, the Panthers are an almost perfect 8-1 ATS. With the probability of the spread growing larger, it should also be noted that the Panthers went 9-4 ATS in games as a favorite of seven points or less this season.
As for the Broncos, they’re a team that probably shouldn’t be messed with when they’re an underdog, as they’ve posted a 5-1 SU and 5-0-1 ATS record in their last six games as underdogs. There’s something about winning as an underdog that seems to sparks this team, as they’ve managed to go 9-2 SU in their last 11 games after winning as a dog. The Broncos were also a much better bet outside of Denver this season, with a 4-2-2 road ATS record.
From a historical perspective, here’s where things get scary for those siding with the Panthers: The favored team has lost four straight Super Bowls SU and ATS and have only covered in three of the last 15.
Fortunately for Panthers backers, history is also working against the Broncos, as the AFC representative has gone just 11-20 SU and 10-20-1 ATS in the last 21 Super Bowls.
Totals bettors might have a conundrum on their hands here as both teams were at completely different ends of the spectrum this season. The Broncos saw 10 of their games finish with a combined total of 40 points or less, whereas the Panthers saw nine of their games finish with a total of 50 points or more. With the total for the Super Bowl hovering around the 45 point mark at most sportsbooks, the Panthers have gone OVER that number in 12 games this season, while the Broncos have gone UNDER that mark in 12 games.
This will be the eighth time the Broncos have played in the Super Bowl, and in each of their previous six appearances, the total went OVER. This year’s version of the team has been hitting the UNDER more often than not though, posting an O/U record of 6-10-2 and going UNDER in five of their last seven games.
High scoring games are nothing new for the Panthers, especially lately, as they’ve averaged 39.3 points per game over their last three contents. They haven’t needed much help going OVER the total in the three games, as their defense has held the opposition to an average of 16.3 points during that stretch. On the season they’ve posted a 12-6 O/U record, which includes going OVER in three of their last four road games.
We’ll continue to track the line and total movement as the game approaches and provide updates specific to those numbers.
Now that you know the facts, let us know who you’re leaning towards. Place your SU, ATS, and Total predictions in the comment section below.