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Nover: QBs the Key For Road Favorites

By Wednesday afternoon it was official. The marketplace had received enough significant money to turn the Packers into a favorite against Washington. Now, for the first time, all four road teams are favored in the NFL Wild Card Playoffs.

How can this be?

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Home Dogs are a Red-Hot Wild Card Bet

Houston Texans JJ Watt

Home underdogs have always been an attractive play for NFL bettors, but just how profitable have they been when playoff time rolls around? According to recent history, they’ve been cashing at a rapid pace.

Out of the last 22 games that have closed with home dogs in the Wild Card round, 15 have covered the spread (15-6-1 ATS). They’re slightly more pedestrian straight up (13-9 SU), but it’s worth noting just how much playing in front of their hometown fans has helped bettors.

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NFL Wild Card Betting Trends Analysis

The Cincinnati Bengals have made the playoffs each of the previous four years with the same result - a loss and non-cover. The common denominator has been quarterback Andy Dalton. He has been the quarterback every time and has played beyond bad.

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NFL Wild Card Opening Odds Analysis

Road teams have the respect of the oddsmaker judging by early numbers in the NFL Wild Card playoff round. Perhaps by kickoff all four visiting clubs will be favored.

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NFL Regular Season Betting Recap

The 2015 NFL regular season wrapped up on Sunday, and like every season before it, it wasn’t short on storylines, both on and off the field. It was also an interesting and unpredictable year at the betting window, as some teams had their backers laughing all the way to the bank, while others contributed to their backers’ Christmas debt.

Here’s the best and worst of the NFL season along with the results of some preseason player props:

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SNF Betting Preview: Vikings at Packers

Adrian Peterson Vikings

The NFC North crown is on the line when the Minnesota Vikings travel to Lambeau Field to take on the Green Bay Packers Sunday night. The Vikings enter the game as an underdog and that is just where they like to be as Minnesota is 7-0 ATS in their seven games as a road dog.

The last two games have seen the Vikings dominate opponents with a combined score of 87-34 in favour of Minny. Though Teddy Bridgewater deserves his credit, five touchdowns passes and no turnovers in those two games, the Vikings defense has been phenomenal. The Vikings D has recorded nine sacks, four interceptions and forced three fumbles in those games.

The Packers are coming off one of the worst ass-kickings of the year when they lost 38-8 to the Cardinals last week. Aaron Rodgers was abused in that game as he was sacked eight times and had his lowest quarterback rating since December 2012.

When these teams met for the first time this season it was the Packers defense that took the game over as they held Adrian Peterson to 45 yards on 13 carries and sacked Bridgewater six times. 

Game ID: 
701282
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NFL Week 17 OddsShark Computer Picks

Green Bay Packers Randall Cobb

We've reached the final week of the 2015 NFL campaign, but like any good team, the OddsShark Super Computer is not going to fade down the stretch. According to the Computer, football fans should surprisingly expect a lot of tightly contested affairs this week.

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NFL Week 17 Expert Betting Odds Picks

A pair of underdogs and a total are my NFL Week 17 recommendations. The total is under 39.5 in the Washington-Dallas matchup.

The Redskins are locked into the fourth seed by virtue of winning the NFC East Division. So this game means very little to them. I expect Jay Gruden to rest his starters, including hot quarterback Kirk Cousins, much of the game.

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NFL Week 17 Betting Trends Analysis

This last week of the NFL regular season can be the toughest. Who really knows the mindset of the players on teams out of postseason contention? Perhaps some trends and angles can help.

Chip Kelly didn't make it through his third season with Philadelphia, fired five days before the Eagles play at the New York Giants. The Eagles have had the Giants' number winning and covering 12 of the past 15 times, including 27-7 in Week 6.

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UNDER Trending at Home for Falcons

Atlanta Falcons Julio Jones

The Falcons have been anything but a dependable bet this season as they’ve gone 2-9 ATS over their last 11 games. They’ve been a much more reliable O/U bet, however, as the UNDER has hit in five straight of their home games and in all but one of their seven home games so far this season. The Falcons will welcome the New Orleans Saints to the Georgia Dome on Sunday.

Shark Bites
  • The Saints are 14-5 SU in their last 19 games against the Falcons.
  • The Saints are 2-7 SU and 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine games after a win.
  • The Falcons are 4-0 SU and ATS in their last four games after winning as an underdog.

The Saints are coming off a 38-27 home win over the Jacksonville Jaguars, but have failed to put up big numbers on the road lately as they’ve averaged just 14.6 points over their last three road games. The Saints are just 2-5 SU on the road this season and lost a close 37-34 game the last time these teams met in Atlanta.

After losing six straight games, the Falcons are riding a two-game winning streak after putting an end to the Panthers’ perfect season. You’d think any offense that features Julio Jones would rank amongst the top offenses in the league, but the Falcons are ranked in the bottom half of the league with just 21.5 points per game. Even worse for the Falcons, they’ve averaged a measly 14.3 points in their last three games.

Game ID: 
701275
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