NFL Week 17 Betting Trends Analysis

This last week of the NFL regular season can be the toughest. Who really knows the mindset of the players on teams out of postseason contention? Perhaps some trends and angles can help.

Chip Kelly didn't make it through his third season with Philadelphia, fired five days before the Eagles play at the New York Giants. The Eagles have had the Giants' number winning and covering 12 of the past 15 times, including 27-7 in Week 6.


UNDER Trending at Home for Falcons

Atlanta Falcons Julio Jones

The Falcons have been anything but a dependable bet this season as they’ve gone 2-9 ATS over their last 11 games. They’ve been a much more reliable O/U bet, however, as the UNDER has hit in five straight of their home games and in all but one of their seven home games so far this season. The Falcons will welcome the New Orleans Saints to the Georgia Dome on Sunday.

Shark Bites
  • The Saints are 14-5 SU in their last 19 games against the Falcons.
  • The Saints are 2-7 SU and 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine games after a win.
  • The Falcons are 4-0 SU and ATS in their last four games after winning as an underdog.

The Saints are coming off a 38-27 home win over the Jacksonville Jaguars, but have failed to put up big numbers on the road lately as they’ve averaged just 14.6 points over their last three road games. The Saints are just 2-5 SU on the road this season and lost a close 37-34 game the last time these teams met in Atlanta.

After losing six straight games, the Falcons are riding a two-game winning streak after putting an end to the Panthers’ perfect season. You’d think any offense that features Julio Jones would rank amongst the top offenses in the league, but the Falcons are ranked in the bottom half of the league with just 21.5 points per game. Even worse for the Falcons, they’ve averaged a measly 14.3 points in their last three games.

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Lions Dominating Bears in Recent Games

Detroit Lions Calvin Johnson

Dominating isn’t often a word used to describe the Detroit Lions, but after five straight wins over the Chicago Bears, it seems appropriate. With basically nothing on the line for either team (except a better draft pick for the loser), the players will simply be playing for the love of the game, or for pending free-agents, fatter contract offers in the offseason.

Shark Bites
  • The visiting team is 2-7-1 ATS in the last 10 games in this matchup.
  • In 13 career games vs the Lions, Jay Cutler has 18 TD passes and eight interceptions.
  • The total has gone OVER in the Bears' last four games.

Some alarming trends stick out for the Bears heading into the game. Most disturbing for the team and their season ticket holders is the team’s 1-9 SU home record in their last 10 games. They’ve also been a bad bet against divisional opponents, posting a 6-14 ATS record in their last 20 games vs divisional foes.

The Lions will be looking to end the season on a three game win streak, after winning their last two games, both SU and ATS. The Lions won a close game over the Bears on October 18th—37-34. Matthew Stafford went off in the game for 405 passing yards and four touchdowns, while Calvin Johnson had his only 100+ receiving yard game of the season—catching six balls, for 166 yards and a touchdown.

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Jets are on an ATS Roll

Ryan Fitzpatrick New York Jets

With a playoff spot in their grasp, the Jets will travel upstate for a divisional matchup in Buffalo against the Bills. The Jets are getting hot at the right time as the season winds down—winning five straight games, while going 4-0-1 ATS during that stretch.

Shark Bites
  • The Jets are 0-4 SU and ATS in their last four games against the Bills.
  • The Bills are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games as home underdogs.
  • The Jets are 2-9 SU in their last 11 games after winning as an underdog.

The Bills’ playoff hopes are long gone, but they’ll be trying to spoil the Jets’ postseason aspirations. New York opened as 2.5-point favorites, but the Bills have been a strong ATS play at home over their last 10 home games—going 7-3 ATS. There’s something about playing in January that hasn’t quite clicked for Buffalo though, as they’ve gone just 1-6 SU and ATS in their last seven games in January.

During their five game winning streak the Jets have averaged 27.2 points per game while allowing just 16.8 points. Ryan Fitzpatrick has been a major reason for the Jets’ recent success as he’s thrown 13 touchdowns and just one interception during the five games. Brandon Marshall has also been giving opposing defenses nightmares, as he’s recorded 115 or more receiving yards in four of the five games.

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Where Will Kelly Be Coaching Next Year?

Philadelphia Eagles Chip Kelly

Chip Kelly has been officially fired by the Philadelphia Eagles. It was clear from the beginning that Kelly was going to live and die by the sword when he completely rebuilt the roster during his tenure in Philly.


NFL Week 17 Opening Odds Analysis

Not since the preseason has there been such volatility in the NFL betting lines. Welcome to Week 17, where numbers appearing early could be drastically altered by kickoff as playoff berths and seeds get determined.

Oddsmakers usually play it straight going by power ratings to make their numbers. But during this last week of the regular season there is more line inflation on teams in must-win situations.


Suddenly Red Hot Rams Visit The 49ers

Todd Gurley Rams

The final quarter of the NFL schedule has seen the St. Louis Rams start to put the pieces together. The Rams are 3-0 SU and ATS in their past three games while outscoring opponents 75-54. The Rams will look to end their season on a four-game winning streak when they visit the San Francisco 49ers Sunday.

The Rams late season surge has a lot to do with the reimagined offense. Rob Boras was promoted to offensive coordinator following the firing of Frank Cignetti and he emphasized a simplified gameplan. Case Keenum also came in as starter and has managed to do what Nick Foles never could, protect the football.

There is no sugar coating this; the 49ers suck. When Blaine Gabbert, a backup quarterback at best, is your best offensive player you can’t argue that your team sucks. The 49ers are averaging the fewest points per game (14.6) in the NFL by a wide margin.

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Week 17 NFL Odds: Panthers vs Bucs

Carolina Panthers Josh Norman

The Panthers are no longer perfect but there’s still plenty to play for as they can clinch home field advantage throughout the playoffs with a victory over the Buccaneers on Sunday. The Panthers were simply outplayed by the Falcons in their first loss of the season, and after being a strong ATS bet for most of the season, they’ve been unable to cover the spread in three of their last four games.

Shark Bites
  • The Buccaneers are 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS in their last five games against the Panthers.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 12 of the Panthers' last 16 games vs divisional opponents.
  • The Panthers are 9-0 ATS in their last nine games after consecutive ATS losses.

Tampa Bay has been on a serious slide since the end of November, going just 1-4 SU and ATS over their last five games. Despite averaging the seventh most yards per game this season (375.2), they rank in the bottom half of the league with just 22.1 points per games.

The teams met on October 4th, with the Panthers winning by a score of 37-23. Jameis Winston struggled in the game, throwing four interceptions—one of which was returned by Josh Norman for a touchdown.

The Bucs opened as 12 point underdogs, which is the third largest underdog they’ve been since 2010. It’s also the second highest favorites the Panthers have been since 2008.

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Can Anyone Stop The Streaking Chiefs?

Jeremy Maclin Chiefs

The Kansas City Chiefs have shocked the football world by winning their last nine games and booking themselves a trip to the playoffs. Not only have the Chiefs been getting it done on the field, but they have also been getting it done at the betting window as they have gone 7-2 ATS in their past nine games. Kansas City will look to end their season on a 10-game winning streak when they host the Oakland Raiders Sunday.

Quarterback Alex Smith has been putting up some ridiculous numbers during the Chiefs winning streak as the former No.1 overall pick has completed 68.6 percent of his passes for 12 touchdowns and two interceptions. KC’s defence has been playing off the charts as well as they have allowed a mere 12.3 points per game in their past nine games.

The Raiders success this season is directly related to how Derek Carr plays. In the Raiders seven wins so far this season, Carr has 18 touchdowns with just two interceptions, but the sophomore quarterback has thrown 13 touchdowns and 10 picks in eight losses.

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UNDER Trending in SD-DEN Tilt

San Diego Chargers Philip Rivers

The Denver Broncos officially clinched a playoff berth in the wake of Week 16’s 20-17 victory over the Cincinnati Bengals, but before they can advance to the postseason they’ll face off against the lowly San Diego Chargers at home– a game that will mercifully end the Chargers’ season.

Shark Bites
  • The UNDER is 4-0 in the Chargers' last four games.
  • The Broncos are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in January.
  • The UNDER is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings between the Broncos and Chargers.

San Diego (4-11 SU) suffered through one of its worst years since Philip Rivers came into the fold in 2004. While the Bolts have nothing to play for, they’d certainly love nothing more than to stick it to their division rivals one last time before they clean out their lockers.

UNDER bettors have fallen in love with Mile High Stadium this season, and for good reason. The UNDER has gone 1-5-1 in the Broncos’ seven home contests this year.

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