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Nover: Packers Need a Change at Coach

I said it after Green Bay choked away the NFC Championship Game against Seattle: Mike McCarthy should be fired. His game decisions were instrumental in the Packers losing.
 
The Packers, who have a key matchup on Sunday afternoon when they face the rival Vikings in essentially a pick'em game, have gotten worse this season.
 

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NFL Week 11 Betting Trends Analysis

It takes a special set of circumstances for the Jacksonville Jaguars to be laying points in a game. The Jaguars need to be home and playing a really bad team.
 
That's the combination Thursday as the Jaguars are a field goal favorite hosting Tennessee. Before this matchup, the Jaguars had been favored just twice during their last 51 games.
 

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NFL Odds: Colts Suddenly Solid ATS Bet

The Georgia Dome is the stage for Week 10’s clash between the Indianapolis Colts and the Atlanta Falcons, where the Colts will be seeking to remain red-hot at the betting window. After an ugly four-game ATS skid to start the season, Indy has covered in four out of their last five games ahead of the tilt.

Historically speaking, Indianapolis has been solid as outright winners when coming off the bye. Indy is 6-0 SU in their last six games coming off the bye – the position they’ll be in once again on Sunday. 

Atlanta hasn’t exactly been lighting the world on fire when tabbed as home faves. Matt Ryan and company, who opened at -6 at most sportsbooks, are 1-5 ATS in their last six games as home chalk.

Matt Hasselbeck will start at quarterback for the Colts in place of Andrew Luck, who’s expected to miss at least a month with a lacerated kidney. In two starts this season, Hasselbeck has thrown three touchdowns and no interceptions.

Game ID: 
701181
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NFL Week 11 Odds - Ravens vs Rams

Just how bad have the Baltimore Ravens been this season? Baltimore’s 2-7 SU record looks bad enough, but they’re also 1-7-1 ATS on the year including 0-4 ATS at home. Joe Flacco’s club will be attempting to right the ship in Week 10 against the St. Louis Rams.

<h5>Shark Bites</h5>

<ul class="content-list">
<li>The Ravens are 13-5 SU in their last 18 games after losing as favorite.</li>
<li>The Rams are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games in Week 11.</li>
<li>The total has gone under in five of the Rams' last six games on the road.</li>
</ul>

St. Louis will need to enter the matchup with a short-term memory in the wake of a 37-13 drubbing at the hands of the Chicago Bears. The Rams failed to get star rookie running back Todd Gurley involved early and looked bad on offense, while getting exposed by Teddy Bridgewater and the Vikings on defense. The Rams are now 4-5 ATS on the season.

These teams have a history of participating in a lot of high-scoring affairs. In the last eight meetings between the Rams and Ravens, the OVER has gone 6-2. 

Game ID: 
701182
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Nover: How to Beat NFL Thursday Games

Want to know the secret on how to beat NFL Thursday night games? It's a simple handicap: Go with the experienced head coach. They know how to get their teams ready during a short turnaround week.
 
Teams with an experienced coach are 8-0 against the spread this season when going against a first or second year coach on Thursday night, taking advantage of inexperienced head coaches that haven't been in this unique spot before.
 

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Seahawks are Red-Hot ATS vs 49ers

The San Francisco 49ers and Seattle Seahawks are no strangers to one another, but the teams that are set to face off in Week 11 appear to be shells of their former selves compared to what we’ve seen over the last few years. To say Seattle has had the upper hand at the betting window in this series would be a massive understatement, however. The Seahawks are a red-hot 9-0 ATS in their last nine against the Niners.

<h5>Shark Bites</h5>

<ul class="content-list">
<li>The 49ers are 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS in their last six games on the road.</li>
<li>The Seahawks are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games in Week 11.</li>
<li>The total has gone OVER in five of the Seahawks' last seven games at home.</li>
</ul>

San Fran has struggled mightily this season in light of an offseason exodus of players that included the departure of their former head coach, Jim Harbaugh. The 49ers (3-6 SU, 4-5 ATS) are just 1-4 ATS at home but have covered the spread in three out of their four road tilts this year.

Seattle (4-5 SU, 2-6-1 ATS) has been far from a sure thing, too. The Seahawks, fresh off a crushing last-minute loss to the New England Patriots in Super Bowl XLIX, have struggled to get anything going this season and must pick up their socks soon or the playoffs may not be a possibility for Pete Carroll’s squad this year.

Game ID: 
701191
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Cowboys Total Wins & Tony Romo Props

Tony Romo Dez Bryant Dallas Cowboys

This season could very well go down as a lost season for the Dallas Cowboys. The team entered the season with high expectations thanks to winning the NFC East last season and had it not been for a questionable no-catch ruling against Green Bay in the playoffs, they would have been in the NFC Championship Game. Any aspirations of a deep playoff run this season were quickly dashed thanks to a rash of injuries that affected key players on both sides of the ball.

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Vikings Seeking Ninth Straight Cover

Adrian Peterson Vikings

The Green Bay Packers have been the kings of the NFC North for the better part of the last decade, but a new player has emerged in 2015: the Minnesota Vikings. The Vikings (7-2 SU) have looked great this season and have particularly been strong for bettors, posting an 8-1 record ATS including an eight-game streak where they have covered the spread.

<h5>Shark Bites</h5>

<ul class="content-list">
<li>The Vikings are 0-4 SU and ATS in their last four games in Week 11.</li>
<li>The Packers are 0-4 ATS in their last four games.</li>
<li>The total has gone UNDER in five of the Packers' last six games.</li>
</ul>

It seems as if no one can figure out what is going on in Green Bay right now. The Packers fell to the Denver Broncos and Carolina Panthers—two teams who were undefeated at the time, before returning to Wisconsin to face the lowly Lions. But the Packers (who closed as healthy 10.5-point favorites) laid an egg, falling to Detroit 18-16—the first time the Lions have topped the Packers at Lambeau Field since 1991.

Home field advantage has been crucial in recent contests between the NFC North rivals. Home sides are 7-2 SU in the last nine meetings between the clubs.

Game ID: 
701188
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NFL Odds: Chargers Struggle Off the Bye

Rivers Chargers NFL

There are a lot of reasons the San Diego Chargers have had an underwhelming 2015 campaign, but the finger can’t be pointed at starting quarterback Philip Rivers. Rivers has 3,033 passing yards for 19 touchdowns and seven interceptions so far this year and will have an opportunity to pad those stats against the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 10.

 

<h5>Shark Bites</h5>

 

<ul class="content-list">

<li>The Chiefs are 7-3 SU and ATS in their last 10 games as road favorites.</li>

<li>The Chargers are 1-4 SU and ATS in their last five games as home underdogs.</li>

<li>The Chiefs are 4-1 SU and ATS in their last five games after winning as an underdog.</li>

</ul>

It turns out extra rest hasn’t been a good thing for the Bolts in recent years, however. The Chargers are 0-4 ATS in their last four games after the bye—a trend that won’t appeal to San Diego backers in the wake of the team’s bye week.

Game ID: 
701192
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NFL Week 11 Backup Quarterback Props

Denver Broncos Brock Osweiler

There will be three different backup quarterbacks starting under center this weekend that did not start in their team’s previous game. Brock Osweiler starts for the Denver Broncos over Peyton Manning, the St. Louis Rams have turned to Case Keenum over Nick Foles and Mark Sanchez gets the call for the Philadelphia Eagles due to an injured Sam Bradford.

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