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Sunday Setup: Revenge for Falcons?

With four games under every team’s belt, football bettors now have enough of a sample size to start formulating selections based on this year’s performance instead of just speculation.

But while that’s a good starting point, as is always the case in betting football there is more to handicapping than just the numbers.

Here are some angles and updates to consider as you round out your card heading into Sunday for Week 5.

Revenge Weekend


NFL Line Moves: Titans Meet Steelers

Hard to believe that a quarter of the NFL season is already in the books, but every team has now played four games and betting lines get sharper as cards get smaller due to bye weeks. Even with the smaller card, there are still plenty of lines that bettors and the house don’t agree on.

Here’s a look at four games that have seen big line movements in Week 5.

Tennessee Titans @ Pittsburgh Steelers (from -6.5 to -3.5 at TopBet)


NFL Betting Lines: Texans lose Johnson

The biggest name to hit the injury list over the weekend was Texans wide receiver Andre Johnson, who left Houston’s game against Pittsburgh in the second quarter with a hamstring injury.

That injury is projected to keep Johnson out of action for three weeks, so he won’t be available this Sunday when Houston takes on the Oakland Raiders at home. With Johnson out and backup running backs Derrick Ward (ankle) and Ben Tate (groin) both considered questionable, look for Arian Foster to get plenty of work.


Over Unders Dominate Week 5 Trends

If you bet UNDER the total the last eight times the Saints visited the Panthers, you'd have cashed eight winning tickets.

With that perfect 8-0 situation looming on the Week 5 NFL odds menu, is it too tempting to pass up, especially given that 11 of 13 meetings overall between New Orleans and Carolina have gone UNDER the number?

Or is it fool's gold with Cam Newton and Drew Brees ready to blow the lid off the opening total of 52.5?


Lions vs. Bears: Opening NFL Lines

Last week’s NFL action once again showed that no lead is safe, but it also showed that the Detroit Lions just might be the real deal. For the second straight week, they overcame a huge deficit on the road to win, this time at the expense of the Dallas Cowboys.

This week, Detroit gets the spotlight on Monday Night Football, where they are a 6-point favorite at home against the division rival Chicago Bears.


Week 5 odds - Buccaneers vs. 49ers

Tampa Bay BuccaneersSan Francisco 49ers
Oct 9, 4:05 PM | Grass of Candlestick Park

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs San Francisco 49ers Odds


The result of the Battle of the Bays (Tampa vs San Francisco) is almost always an UNDER play (12-3 past 15 games since 1984).

But this serves as an intriguing battle of surprising 3-1 teams where the visiting Buccaneers are 9-2 SU in their last 11 games on the road. Tampa won here 21-0 last season, snapping an 8-game losing skid dating back to 1980.

The Bucs play on a short week after defeating the Colts on MNF, so watch for the opening point spread and total to be posted.


New York favored by 10 against Seattle on Sunday

Seattle SeahawksNew York Giants
Oct 9, 1:00 PM | Turf of MetLife Stadium

Seattle Seahawks vs New York Giants Odds


Seattle hasn't won at the Giants since 1983, losing five straight since that time, and they were hammered by New York last season.

The Seahawks would like to hit their bye week at 2-3, but face a good and lucky Giants team that is 3-1. The Giants opened as huge 11-point home favorites, but some early Seahawk action knocked the number down.

It bears watching during the week.


Game Preview - Cardinals underdogs vs Vikings at Minnesota

Arizona CardinalsMinnesota Vikings
Oct 9, 1:00 PM | Turf of The Metrodome

Arizona Cardinals vs Minnesota Vikings Odds


Minnesota will try to shed its choker label at home against a team with its own choking problems in 2011.

The Vikes opened as small favorites against Arizona, which is 1-3 and heading for its bye week needing a win. But the Cardinals have lost 8 of 10 trips to the Metrodome, a tough trend to snap against a winless team that has blown leads in all four games so far.

Arizona has been close, but no cigar in its three losses and has been a reliable OVER bet in October (15-3-1 past 19 games).


Jacksonville Jaguars vs Cincinnati Bengals in NFL odds tilt

Cincinnati BengalsJacksonville Jaguars
Oct 9, 1:00 PM | Grass of EverBank Field

Cincinnati Bengals vs Jacksonville Jaguars Odds


The Bengals don't win on the road and they never seem to beat Jacksonville, yet they open as a small road underdog in Week 5 NFL betting action.

Cincy is 1-7 SU in their past 8 road games, 2-9 SU past 11 against the Jaguars, and just 2-9 ATS in their past 11 games in October. Jacksonville meanwhile has just 23 total points in three straight losses and has seen all four games plunge under the total, which opened at 35.5 and was quickly bet higher.


Colts vs Chiefs Preview

Kansas City ChiefsIndianapolis Colts
Oct 9, 1:00 PM | Turf of Lucas Oil Stadium

Kansas City Chiefs vs Indianapolis Colts Odds


One of only two games where both teams are heading to a bye sees the winless Colts desperate for a win before getting their annual break.

The Chiefs meanwhile can rest somewhat easier having broken their victory cherry in Week 4 against the Vikings. Indy meanwhile suffered more injuries and seem headed for the first overall pick in the draft.

Indy is 10-1 SU and 9-2 ATS in their past 11 games with KC but this is not the same Colts team.



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