NFL Best and Worst Home Underdogs

The vaunted home dog in the NFL hasn’t been all that vaunted over the past six seasons. NFL home teams catching points are 263-250-8 (51.26%) against the spread since 2006. That success rate isn’t making any money.

But there are a few home-field advantages that have come into play consistently in recent seasons, none more so than CenturyLink Field where the mighty Seattle Seahawks are 14-7-1 ATS as a home dog.

The Arizona Cardinals also have had success as home dogs, going 14-7 ATS in the desert heat when catching points.


NFL best bets at home

When you think of NFL powerhouses that always win at home, you think New England, Green Bay and Pittsburgh.

In reality, only Pittsburgh deserves that public perception, while the Seattle Seahawks and San Diego Chargers also rank among the best NFL home teams against the spread.

As we prepare for the full-fledged kickoff to the NFL season, it’s always good to review which teams continually exceed oddsmakers’ expectations at home and which ones consistently fail to meet them. (Dolphins, Raiders, we’re looking at you).


Best NFL Road Favorites Against the Spread

No team comes close to the New England Patriots when it comes to ATS road wins as a favorite over the past six years.

The Pats are 22-12-2 ATS in 36 games, taking care of betting business in a big way. Only two teams – the Saints and Eagles – have as many 16 ATS road wins as chalk during the time.

Interestingly, the Pats and Giants – Super Bowl combatants twice during this 6-year period – have the best records. The Giants are not favored nearly as often as the Patriots, but they are 14-6 ATS, which is a better percentage of road chalk victories.


Best NFL Road Teams Against The Spread

Winning on the road in the NFL is one of the toughest tasks in professional sports and covering the spread on the road is even harder.

It’s why the New York Giants record of 35-17 ATS over the past six seasons is so remarkable and part of the reason they have been able to roll to a pair of Super Bowls during that timeframe.

Big Blue finished on an 8-2 ATS road last year (counting the Super Bowl which was a neutral siter, but was away from home). They won five straight on the road to end the season, all as underdogs.


Best NFL Home Favorites Against the Spread

New England has been a home favorite more times than any other NFL team in the past six seasons and won more games at Gillette Stadium, but that does not make them the best NFL home team.

The Patriots have been home chalk 55 times and covered the spread 25 times, but losing 29 times – by far the most of any team. The team with the most ATS home wins as a favorite is the Pittsburgh Steelers, who are 28-21-1 ATS.

That stat shows just how difficult it can be turning a profit at online sportsbooks by betting only home favorites. The best team is only marginally over .500.


Carolina vs Tampa Bay Pick

Needing every win they can get to keep up with Atlanta and New Orleans in the AFC South, the Carolina Panthers and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers meet in a key rivalry game Sunday at Raymond James Stadium.

And this game shapes up as a battle between two of the worst Week 1 teams of the past decade. Carolina is 2-7 ATS and Tampa is 3-8 ATS.

Coming off of one of the best rookie campaigns for a quarterback ever, all eyes are on Cam Newton. Will he hit a sophomore slump or take his game to the next level? His Panthers are a 2.5-point road favorite at TopBet.

Carolina crushed Tampa Bay in both of their meetings last season, going 2-0 straight up and ATS and winning the two games by a combined score of 86-35.

Of note, the OVER is 7-1 the past 8 meetings between these teams in Tampa Bay. (Best OVER line, check out Bovada)


Jets vs Bills Betting Prediction

Two AFC East rivals clash Sunday in the Meadowlands when the New York Jets host the Buffalo Bills at MetLife Stadium.

Tim Tebow will make his debut in the Big Apple running plays out of the wildcat formation behind starter Mark Sanchez.

New York is a 3-point favorite at home at TopBet and the Jets have won each of their last five games against Buffalo, going 4-1 ATS over that span.

But the Bills are 6-1 ATS past 7 season openers, a trend that contrasts with their 1-7 SU pattern in games against the Jets.


Vikings vs Jaguars Pick: Odds Preview

After winning only three games last year, the Minnesota Vikings are hoping for a win Sunday when they host the Jacksonville Jaguars at the Metrodome.

But they do so against the team that has been the best Week 1 against-the-spread foe of the past 13 years.

The Jaguars (+3.5 at 5Dimes) just became a much tougher out Sunday though with news that star running back Maurice Jones-Drew has ended his holdout. And their 11-2 ATS run in 13 season openers means they bring it in Week 1, even if they don't for the rest of the regular season.

Rashad Jennings is still expected to start Week 1. Minnesota is 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS in its last five games at home and is also a profitable 8-2 ATS past 10 season openers.


Falcons vs Chiefs Week 1 Pick

The Kansas City Chiefs host the Atlanta Falcons, a team that struggled on the road in season openers, Sunday afternoon at Arrowhead Stadium.

Matt Ryan leads what should be a high-powered offense into Arrowhead as the Falcons look to take advantage of New Orleans’ suspensions and win the NFC South. But the Falcons are just 1-4 ATS past 5 season openers on the road.

Atlanta is a slight 2-point road favorite at, a fact that plays into a Kansas City trend. The Chiefs are 9-2 ATS in their past 11 games as an underdog.

The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Kansas City’s last 11 games and in nine of Atlanta’s last 13.


Dolphins vs Texans: Week 1 Prediction

The Houston Texans kick off their AFC South title defense against the Miami Dolphins Sunday at Reliant Stadium in a game that has seen the biggest line move of the week.

Matt Schaub, Arian Foster and Andre Johnson lead a stacked offense that will need to score in bunches to cover this week as an 11-point chalk at Bovada. But the line is even higher at 5Dimes where the number moved from -6.5 to -13.5.

Houston has never lost to Miami, going 6-0 SU and 4-2 ATS in six career meetings.

But the point spread might not be the best play here. Miami has played 5 straight September UNDERs and bring a rookie QB to town to face a Super Bowl contender.



Subscribe to RSS - NFL