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DEN-NE: OVER Trends Flying off the Page

Broncos Patriots Brady Manning

Here we go again. For the 17th, and quite possibly last time in their illustrious careers, Tom Brady and Peyton Manning will faceoff, and a trip to Super Bowl 50 is on the line. The Patriots come into Denver opening as 3-point favorites, but the real story might be the O/U total, as OVER trends are at an eye-popping level.

With the total sitting at 44, O/U bettors will want to give strong consideration to the OVER. The Patriots have posted a record of 8-3 O/U this season in games with a total of less than 50 points. Digging even deeper, over the past five seasons, the Patriots have gone 18-5 O/U when facing a total of 45 or lower, averaging 30 points in those games. The Patriots also tend to put up big numbers in revenge situations, as the total has gone OVER in an amazing 15 straight Pats games after they lost the previous game in a matchup. Even more—these teams have gone OVER in six of their last seven games against each other. As always when betting totals, keep an eye on the weather as the game approaches.

As for the 3-point spread—that’s a number the Patriots haven’t responded well to. New England has lost three straight games both SU and ATS as a favorite of 3-points or less, with each of those games being on the road. The 3-point mark might be a magic number for the Broncos, however, as they’re a perfect 5-0 SU and ATS in their last five games as an underdog of 3-points or less.

The Broncos got the better of the Patriots in a Week 11 game in Denver—30-24. For better or worse though, the Broncos will look like a much different team this time around, as Brock Osweiler filled in for Manning under center in the game. Denver’s offensive attack was highlighted by 29 carries between C.J. Anderson and Ronnie Hillman who rushed for a combined 172 yards and three touchdowns.

Despite being the top seed in the AFC, the Broncos have been a team to stay away from at the betting window, as they’ve now failed to cover the spread in five straight weeks, going 0-3-2. Unfortunately for Patriots backers, they also have an ATS trend working against them, as they’ve gone 1-5 ATS in their last six road games.

Looking for an edge based on the history of Manning vs Brady? Brady’s gone 11-5 SU and 9-6-1 ATS vs Manning in their careers, while they’ve split four playoff games against each other, both SU and ATS. For more on Brady vs Manning, check out our breakdown of their head-to-head matchups.

Game ID: 
724467
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Expert Picks: NFL Championship Sunday

Cam Newton Panthers

The 2016 NFL playoffs return for the Conference Championship Round this weekend. All four home teams advanced through the Divisional Dound, a week after all four road teams won in the Wild Card Round. This marks the first time since 2004 that the top two seeds in each conference advanced.

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NFC Title Game: CAR Cruising at Home

Cardinals Panthers Newton Fitzgerald

The NFL’s Divisional Round is in the books, and now we know the road to Super Bowl 50 will go through Arizona or Carolina. While the signal-callers in the AFC semifinals will hog the headlines this week, football fans—and particularly bettors— shouldn’t overlook the potential classic matchup brewing in the NFC. 

<h5>Shark Bites</h5>

<ul class="content-list">
<li>The Panthers are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games.</li>
<li>Carolina is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at hom.</li>
<li>The Cardinals are 1-6 ATS vs teams with winning records.</li>
</ul>

The Carolina Panthers (16-1 SU, 12-5 ATS) will welcome the Arizona Cardinals (14-3 SU, 9-8 ATS) to town in what’s looking like an incredibly evenly matched affair. The Cards opened as 3-point underdogs, which shouldn’t be particularly surprising considering Carolina’s dominance at home. 

Arizona has been profitable in this spot, however, going 6-0 SU and ATS in its last six games when tabbed as an underdog of 3-points or less. Cam Newton and company have not lost at home since November 16, 2014—a streak that reached 12 in the wake of last weekend’s 31-24 victory over the Seattle Seahawks. Arizona went 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS away from home in the regular season. 

Totals bettors, take note: the OVER is 6-2 in the Panthers’ last eight games heading into this one. Carolina was one of the top OVER teams in the NFL this year (10-5-1 O/U). Five of the Cards’ previous seven games in the month of January have also gone above the closing total. The OVER/UNDER opened at 47 at most shops. 

Another trend that favors bettors banking on high-scoring games: Carolina (31.2) and Arizona (30.3) were the only two teams in the NFL that averaged over 30 points per game this season. 

A date with either Tom Brady and the New England Patriots or Peyton Manning’s Denver Broncos is on the line for the right to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl. Considering how strong both teams are on defense, it’s looking like it’s going to come down to an old fashioned quarterback shootout between grizzled veteran Carson Palmer and young hot shot Cam Newton.

Who do you give the edge to in this game? Let us know who you’re backing in the comment section below.

Game ID: 
724466
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Brady vs Manning Betting Trends

Tom Brady Peyton Manning NFL

Two of the greatest quarterbacks the game has ever seen will meet one more time as Tom Brady of the New England Patriots and Peyton Manning of the Denver Broncos square off for the AFC Championship in Denver Sunday afternoon.

Early odds at online book Bovada see Manning and the Broncos tabbed as 3.5-point home underdogs for the meeting. The total is currently off the board.

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Hochuli Slated to Work Pats-Broncos

Ed Hochuli NFL

While there is barely any room for more subplots in the AFC Championship game between the New England Patriots and Denver Broncos this weekend, what with Tom Brady vs Peyton Manning set to dominate the narrative for the week, there is one note that will interest sports bettors and it involves referee Ed Hochuli.

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Nover: Manning Stumbles to Title Game

One of the saddest things in sports is watching an all-time great hang on too long. I'm old enough to have seen Mickey Mantle bat .237 in his final year, bringing his lifetime batting average under .300, and to have viewed Willie Mays stumble after flyballs as a member of the New York Mets.

Those cringeworthy moments reappear now seeing Peyton Manning.

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NFC/AFC Title Game Facts & Trends

The four best teams in the NFL are set to clash with a trip to Levi’s Stadium and Super Bowl 50 on the line this weekend. The AFC Championship Game will feature a heavyweight bout between Peyton Manning and Tom Brady, while the NFC Championship features the two teams that sat atop the conference all season long.

With a trip to the big game on the line, we take a look at the hottest trends and stats of how the Conference Championship games have gone for bettors over the past 20 seasons.

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NFL Conf. Championships Betting Trends

The New England Patriots are bucking several trends/angles being a road favorite against Denver in the AFC Championship Game.

Away teams have lost 10 of 14 times in the conference championship games during the last seven years. The Patriots are 1-5 against the spread (ATS) during their last six road matchups, losing straight-up to the New York Jets and Miami in their last two. New England also is 1-5 ATS during its last six conference championship finals.

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NFL Conf. Championships Odds Analysis

Funny what one-half of a football game can do to a betting line.

The NFL betting markets likely would have been looking at an opening number of Carolina minus 4 or 4.5 against Arizona following the first half of the Panthers-Seattle game when the score was 31-0 in favor of Carolina.

But when the Seahawks fought back to score 24 unanswered points in their 31-24 Divisional Round Playoff loss this past Sunday, oddsmakers opened Carolina as just a field goal favorite at home against the Cardinals in the NFC Championship Game. The total is 47.

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Exact Super Bowl 50 Result Odds

Carolina Panthers Cam Newton

There may be only four teams remaining in the hunt for Super Bowl 50, but that doesn’t mean there’s limited betting options at sportsbooks.

Online shop 5Dimes is dealing a prop on the exact result of the big game, and it’s quite apparent oddsmakers are expecting to see a New England Patriots-Carolina Panthers final.

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