Virginia Has Been Dominant ATS As Faves

The Virginia Cavaliers have booked themselves what should be an easy first game against the Hampton Pirates Thursday by claiming the top seed in the Midwest Region. Virginia will enter the game as massive favorites, but the Cavs have been excellent at covering when giving up points, as the team is 8-0 ATS in their past eight as faves.

It will be interesting to see if Virginia can cover the huge spread, as they tend to play a slowed down, defensive game. The Cavaliers have won by 20-points or more six times this season, but three of those occasions came in the early part of the season against watered down competition.

Hampton comes into their matchup with Virginia as winners of eight of their past nine games. Quinton Chievous has been a big reason for the Pirates surge, as the big guard has averaged 19.6 points and 14.3 rebounds in their seven victories. Chievous missed the one loss during that span.

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Kansas’ Quest Begins Versus Austin Peay

Kansas Jayhawks Austin Peay Governors NCAA March Madness

The Kansas Jayhawks are playing like the best team in the country entering the NCAA Tournament and start their championship hunt versus the Austin Peay Governors. The Governors shocked the Ohio Valley conference tournament en route to their spot in the Big Dance and are huge underdogs once again in their tourney opener.

Shark Bites
  • OVER is 6-0 in Austin Peay’s previous six games.
  • Kansas is 10-5 ATS in 15 games as double-digit chalk this season.
  • Kansas is just 2-7 ATS in last nine tournament games as double-digit chalk.

Kansas has been on an absolute tear and has more than justified its position as the number 1 team in the country. The Jayhawks have won 14-straight games and has gone 11-3 against the spread in the process. The final three games during their streak came as they won the Big 12 tournament, defeating Kansas State, Baylor and West Virginia.

The Governors enter the tournament on a comparatively-modest six-game winning streak. They have gone 5-1 ATS in those games to finish the season playing their best basketball.

It wasn’t always that rosy for Austin Peay, however. They finished 18-17 on the season and pulled upset after upset in the Ohio Valley Tournament earlier in March. Consider this: Austin Peay was the lowest seed in the OVC tourney and was an underdog of +4.5, +7.5, +10 and +4.5 in their four games en route to the title.

Bettors take note: Austin Peay has been a dog of 25 or more points three times in the past 20 years and is 2-1 ATS in such spots.

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Miami Shouldn’t Have Trouble with Buffalo

The No. 3 seed Miami Hurricanes will try to make quick work of the 14 seeded Buffalo Bulls in the opening round of the NCAA tournament. The ‘Canes opened as -14 favorites, and if you’re considering picking an upset in this one, you should reconsider. As double-digit favorites this season, Miami went 10-1 SU and a profitable 7-3-1 ATS at the betting window. Also, Buffalo is 0-4 SU as double-digit dogs this season.

Miami has also taken care of business against teams with winning records, as they’ve gone 9-3 SU in their last twelve games vs teams above the .500 mark (The Bulls went 20-14 SU this season). Buffalo, however, who’s coming of a 64-61 win over Akron as 5-point underdogs, are 9-2 SU in their last 11 games after winning as a dog.

Miami backers concerned with the 14-point spread should rest easy, as the team went 12-6-1 ATS this season as favorites of 14 points or less. Miami also has 11 wins of 14 or more points this season. As double-digit dogs this season, Buffalo went 1-2-1 ATS.

The teams combined to go 32-30-1 OVER/UNDER, so there might not be too much of an edge if you’re betting the total. With the total hovering in the 148 range, it’s worth noting that Buffalo went 5-11 O/U in games with a total of 148 or more points.

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UNDER Trending Ahead of Yale-Baylor

You’ll have to excuse the No. 12 Yale Bulldogs if they’re looking a little out of place ahead of their Round of 64 matchup with the No. 5 Baylor Bears. Thursday’s contest will mark the first time the Ivy League school has been in the NCAA Tournament since 1962, but it won’t be easy. Sportsbooks are expecting the Bears to show their experience, opening them as 5.5-point favorites for the affair.

Shark Bites
  • Yale is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games.
  • Baylor is 1-5 SU in its last six games in March.
  • The total has gone UNDER in Yale's last four games as underdogs.

The UNDER is trending ahead of this one. Each of Baylor’s last four have gone below the closing total, while Yale is 0-4 O/U in their previous four as underdogs.

Yale, who is making just its fourth NCAA bid in school history, will be forced to be without one of its top players in Jack Montague. Montague was expelled from the school last month.

The winner of the game will be forced to face either fourth-seeded Duke or No. 13 UNC-Wilmington in the Round of 32.

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Duke Struggling At Covering Spreads

The Duke Blue Devils will kick of their bid to win this year’s NCAA Tournament against the UNC Wilmington Seahawks Thursday. Though Duke will enter the game as a big favorite on the spread and in the public consciousness, the team has been struggling to cover, as they are 0-5 ATS in their past five outings.

Duke enters Thursday alternating wins and losses through their past eight games with wild fluctuations in their offensive output in that span. The Blue Devils have averaged 81.3 points in their past four wins, but just 69.3 in their past four losses.  Brandon Ingram’s unique paying style has started to grow into it’s own as of late, with the freshman averaging 15.8 points and 8.3 rebounds per game in March.

UNC-Wilmington has been one of the best offensive teams in the nation, with the unheralded program averaging nearly 80 points per game. Junior Chris Flemmings paces the team as the wing player has averaged 16.1 points on 51.3 percent shooting this season. 

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Betting Numbers for March Madness

I've pored over so much March Madness data I'm dreaming about numbers in my sleep.

In an effort to save you some time, I've compiled some of the most interesting stuff I've come across over the last few days to help you with your wagers and maybe even entertain you a little.

Here's the list:  

76 – West Virginia’s winning percentage against the spread in the NCAA tournament going back to the 95-96 season (19-6 ATS). It’s the highest ATS winning percentage of any team in this year’s March Madness tournament.   


March Madness Seeds: 1 vs 16

- Check out all the seed vs. seed breakdowns for the Round of 64, from the lopsided 1 vs. 16 matchup through the hotly-contested 8 vs. 9 matchup.


Cinderella Teams in The 2016 Tourney

It's that time of year for the annual Cinderella hunt.

Before you settle on your date for the ball you should know this: she's probably going to leave you hanging. Only eight teams over the last 16 years have made the Elite Eight as a No. 9 seed or worse.

So the truth is that there's not a Cinderella just as often as there is one.


March Madness Seeds: 8 vs 9

You would think the No. 8 vs No. 9 March Madness matchup would be the most even betting situation in the bracket. While historically it has been, the past five years have seen the No. 8 seeds win 17 of 24 matchups with No. 9 seeds straight-up while covering 15 times.


March Madness Seeds: 7 vs 10

The difference between a No. 10 seed and a No. 7 seed is often very small and a spot in the March Madness bracket where you can usually find some good pick and betting value.

Those No. 10 seeds had been money makers recently at the sportsbooks, going 11-5 against the spread and 9-7 straight-up in the four NCAA Tournaments from 2009 through 2012. However, the No. 7 seeds have rebounded over the past three years, winning eight of 12 games and going 8-3-1 ATS at the payout window.



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