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UFC 129 Betting Preview

For the first time in years Georges St-Pierre has an opponent worthy of challenging for his UFC Welterweight title. Jake Shields has come to the UFC from Strikeforce with one thing in mind, but he’s got a big mountain to climb before Dana White puts the Welterweight strap around his waist in Toronto at UFC 129.

Shields has a legitimate chance to beat St-Pierre if he can find himself on top of the champion on the ground. But putting St-Pierre on his back is no easy task. He’s one of the best wrestlers in MMA and he can have his way with Shields during any stand-up portion of the fight. Shields will not be ready for what St-Pierre has in store for him, and this is reflected in the MMA odds.

St-Pierre is a heavy favorite to retain his title at UFC 129. The cheapest line available is -440 at 5Dimes, and some books have him at -500. We expect it to be business as usual for the champ and consider him safe money, even with the submission threat that Shields will bring to the Octagon. Underdog lines on Shields will pay as much as +350 at 5Dimes.

As much as the local fans in Toronto will want Ontario native Mark Hominick to become the next UFC Featherweight champion the MMA odds are not predicting that it’s going to happen. Jose Aldo is one of the most complete fighters in the world, and there isn’t a situation where Hominick has an edge over the champ. Aldo will be safe money at the 5Dimes price of -410, likely stopping Hominick in the middle rounds. If you disagree the best upset line on Hominick is +350 at Bovada.

Randy Couture may be fighting his last battle in the Octagon if he suffers another defeat at UFC 129. He will face the elusive Lyoto Machida in a three-round fight to see who’s still relevant in the Light Heavyweight division. Oddsmakers at Bovada have the cheapest favorite line on Machida at -325, while a Couture upset pays a 5Dimes underdog price of +265. This matchup will not fit well for Couture, who will likely lose via unanimous decision.

Former WEC Lightweight champion Benson Henderson will make his Octagon debut against another hometown underdog in Mark Bocek. Henderson is unproven in the UFC and comes in as a bargain at -125 at 5Dimes. The best upset payout of +115 on Bocek is at Bovada, but it just isn’t big enough for our action.

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