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UFC: Aldo vs McGregor Odds Breakdown

UFC 194 has all the makings to be the best card in the company’s history. The card features two of the best title fights the UFC could possibly make and a main card filled with top-tier fights that could headline events in their own right.

With more betting angles than you could know what to do with, we talked to UFC commentator and Team OddsShark member Jon Anik to breakdown both the featherweight and middleweight title fights.

(Note: This interview took place on December 3, 2015)

Jose Aldo vs Conor McGregor

“The featherweight title unification bout between Jose Aldo and Conor McGregor could be the biggest fight in UFC history,” Anik says.

These two were originally scheduled to fight at UFC 189 in July, but Aldo pulled out of the fight late with a rib injury.

“I believe this matchup is about as close as it gets. One mistake on either side could create an opening for the other fighter,” Anik explains. “Right now, McGregor is about a -170 favorite and, while I am likely to pick him in the fight, there really isn't any value at that number. Conversely, the +150 price on Aldo is juicy and figures to entice a lot of avid MMA fans to make a wager.”

There is no doubt that these are the two top fighters in the featherweight division, with a win in this fight possibly cementing either one as the best pound-four-pound fighter on the planet. Aldo’s lone career loss came over a decade ago and McGregor has not lost a fight since 2010.

“Aldo's resume is such that he could just be the greatest MMA fighter of all time.  This is an otherworldly athlete whose combination of speed and power is the best I've ever seen.  I think he will have the speed advantage against McGregor, but only slightly,” Anik explains.

“I lean towards McGregor because I love his frame for this division, he hits like a truck, and his self-belief may just be his biggest weapon,” Anik explains. “I like the way he handled the adversity against Mendes...not only was he challenged in the fight, but his knee was in terrible shape entering the contest...hanging by a thread, according to some sources I talked to.”

The line for this fight has been all over the map since this initial clash was announced back in January. Aldo was originally the favorite, but since his win over Mendes, McGregor has become the favorite seeing a lot of action from fans.

“If you're not confident betting either side - and it'd be hard to blame you if that is your take - I would look to find a prop on this fight ending inside the distance. Given the finishing ability on both sides, I don't think the judges will be needed for this one.”

Chris Weidman vs Luke Rockhold

McGregor and Aldo are getting most of the attention, but Chris Weidman vs Luke Rockhold is one of the most intriguing fights that an MMA fan could ask for.

“We talk a lot about McGregor's confidence, but I'm not sure I've met two more sure-of-themselves fighters in my time with the UFC than Weidman and Rockhold,” Anik theorizes. “Weidman is about a -150 favorite right now and deserves that distinction, but I think you'll find that a lot of pro fighters will be backing Rockhold in this fight.”

Rockhold is 4-1 since joining the UFC with three wins coming by submission and one by a body kick. Weidman believes he has been overlooked during his time in the UFC, despite a flawless record. The ‘All-American’ has beaten Anderson Silva twice, but both could come with question marks if fans wanted to raise them.

“I do believe Luke to be the more dynamic athlete and finisher and I believe he has more paths to victory,” Anik says. “Rockhold says Weidman has gotten by on his wrestling and toughness and believes him to be a limited and flat-footed striker. That said, wrestling and toughness are two of the biggest keys to modern-day MMA success. So I'm not sure it's a bad thing that the champion has leaned on his wrestling, his chin, and his sound mental game while remaining undefeated.”

Only six of Weidman and Rockhold’s combined 29 fights have ever made it to the judges’ scorecard. Anik would be surprised to see this fight go all five rounds with this history.

“A big factor for me will be how Rockhold responds if and when he gets taken down.  If he can get back up easily, I think it's his fight to lose. But if Weidman can keep him there for any significant amount of time and deliberately soften him up with his ground-and-pound, the champion will be hard to beat.”

“Ultimately, these are two of the greatest middleweights of all time,” Anik says. “They've been on a collision course, really since 2012 in the eyes of many, and I cannot wait to see them close the Octagon door behind them.”

Make sure to check out Anik and co-host Kenny Florian breaking down the entire UFC 194 main card as well as making their official selections on the Anik and Florian Podcast this week.

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