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UFC 207: Prop Bets That Offer The Most Value

UFC 207, though hampered by injuries, is a card stacked with close, exciting fights. Lines can be tight with such good matchmaking, so you may need to go searching to find yourself value as a bettor.

Don’t worry if you don’t have the time to pore over the huge list of props and meticulously nitpick for value. That’s what I get paid for. So here you are, four props that offer you the best bang for your buck on UFC 207.

Dominick Cruz Wins By 5 Round Decision (+145)

Dominick Cruz is one of the smartest fighters to ever grace the world of MMA, so it is highly unlikely he gets into a firefight with Cody Garbrandt. ‘No Love’ has rare power for the division and Cruz knows that boxing with Garbrandt frequently is far too dangerous.

Cruz doesn’t exactly have a ton of pop in his punches anyway and would rather pick his opponent apart over the course of 25 minutes. Since the beginning of 2009, ‘The Dominator’ has gone 11-0 with nine victories by decision, including four of those going 25 minutes. 

If you’re backing Cruz, you likely know his path to victory is chipping away at Garbrandt. Getting plus money for Cruz to win on the scorecards is much better than laying tons of chalk on him straight up.

Amanda Nunes vs Ronda Rousey Starts Round 2 (+128)

Both Amanda Nunes and Ronda Rousey are aggressive finishers but this fight could be different. Rousey has openly said she has to outlast Nunes, who has always had poor cardio. Ronda knows she needs to keep her space and let Nunes punch herself out because getting into a slugfest with the champion is incredibly dangerous.

To Nunes’ credit, she has acknowledged her questionable cardio and has seemed to attempt to pace herself better. The coaching staff at American Top Team will almost certainly continue to work on this aspect of Nunes’ game, especially knowing Rousey has publicly talked about it. 

Both Rousey and Nunes understand the risk the other poses. This fight is not going five rounds, but five minutes is reasonable.

Amanda Nunes Wins Via Submission (+611)

Most people are going to say this is insane, but you don’t get value like this based on public perception. Nunes is an underrated submission fighter, as she does have a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu. ‘The Lioness’ has unbelievable power and questionable offensive wrestling, which has made her rely on her striking more than her grappling. That doesn’t mean she can’t grapple.

Rousey’s submission game is built around her judo, as the discipline features takedowns that isolate an opponent’s arm naturally and lead to her famous armbar. Ronda is also exceptionally composed in scrambles, which has made her deadly in the frantic pace that can happen on the mat. However, Rousey has never fought anyone with Nunes’ submission experience and strength.  

We also need to consider Nunes’ ability to get a fight to the mat with her punches. The champ has won two of her past three fights via rear naked choke, but that was because she forced both Miesha Tate and Sara McMann to the canvas with punches before taking their back.

Is this the most likely outcome of this fight? No. But at this line, there is enough evidence to say that it is at least worth a punt. 

Antonio Carlos Junior vs Marvin Vettori UNDER 2.5 Rounds (EVEN)

Most people don’t know either of these fighters but both have impressive submission skills. Antonio Carlos Junior is a black belt in BJJ and a world champion in grappling multiple times. Though Vettori doesn’t have the accomplished grappling career that Junior does, he has won eight of his 13 pro fights via submission.

Vettori is incredibly aggressive once a fight hits the mat, which can leave him exposed. This has never been exploited so far in his relatively young career, but Junior has all the skills to take advantage of any holes he sees.

Either Junior’s experience or Vettori’s aggressiveness is going to pay off and it’s a pretty safe bet that this bout won’t be making it to the judges.

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