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Why the Colts will Beat the Jets

Can the New York Jets pull off a third-straight upset on Sunday when they take on the Indianapolis Colts in the AFC Conference Championship?

The Jets Colts odds seem to suggest not, but the Jets upset streak began with Cincinnati in the Wild Card round and continued last week with their surprising win over San Diego in the Divisional round. The Jets were an 8.5-point underdog versus the Chargers, but came away with a 17-14 win.

For those keeping track at home, that makes eight wins in 10 games as an underdog and the Jets are also 7-1 ATS overall past eight.

Mark Sanchez continued to do just enough at quarterback and completed 12-of-23 passes for 100 yards with a touchdown and an interception. Rookie running back Shonn Greene also continued his recent stellar play while rushing for 128 yards and a touchdown on 23 carries.

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The Colts clashed with Baltimore in the Divisional round and easily knocked off the Ravens 20-3 as a 6-point favorite. Peyton Manning passed for 246 yards with a pair of touchdowns and an interception and Reggie Wayne had eight receptions for 63 yards and a score.

The Jets and Colts met up earlier this season back in Week 16, but don’t take too much from the result. New York defeated Indianapolis 29-15 as a 3-point road underdog, but the Colts didn’t play their starters for the entire game. Indy had already clinched home field advantage throughout the post season at that point and pulled their starters in the third quarter with a 15-10 lead.

With their starters, including Manning, Wayne and Joseph Addai watching from the sidelines the Colts offense dried up from that point on while the Jets put up 19 unanswered points to win 29-15.

AFC Championship Game odds – History, trends and odds

Including their Week 16 victory the Jets are 3-2 SU in their last five games against the Colts. They’re even better ATS in those five contests with a 4-1 mark. Looking back even further the trends tilt the Colts way, as Indy is 6-4 SU in their last 10 against the Jets. However, the Jets still paid bettors with a 6-3-1 ATS record in those 10 contests.

At Indianapolis the story is pretty much the same. In their last five homes games versus the Jets the Colts are 3-2 SU and 2-3 ATS. In their last 10 homes versus New York the Colts are 7-3 SU with a 4-6 record ATS.

The latest odds on Sunday’s game at Bovada have the Colts pegged as an 8-point favorite, while the total has been set low at 39.

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