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Boxing: Canelo Alvarez vs Daniel Jacobs Odds and Prediction

Alvarez vs Jacobs Betting Odds

A title unification match will highlight the Cinco de Mayo card at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas on May 4 as Canelo Alvarez defends his WBA and WBC middleweight belts and tries to capture the IBF middleweight title from Daniel “Miracle Man” Jacobs. Alvarez, the No. 3 pound-for-pound boxer, is a -500 favorite while Jacobs comes back as a +350 underdog.

Odds Analysis

This is the first time that Jacobs has been an underdog since he closed as a +500 underdog vs Gennady Golovkin in 2017. Miracle Man was the first man to go the full 12 rounds with GGG, ending his streak of 23 straight knockouts, but ultimately fell via unanimous decision.

Meanwhile, Canelo is used to being the favorite, closing as an underdog only in his two fights against GGG and against Floyd Mayweather Jr. in 2013. Alvarez and GGG fought to a draw in their first bout, while Alvarez earned a majority decision win in the second. Against Floyd, Canelo lost by majority decision, the only defeat on his record. Most recently, he closed as a -2500 favorite vs Rocky Fielding and won in the third round.

Alvarez vs Jacobs

Alvarez (-500) brings his impressive 51-1-2 record into the ring, with his only defeat coming to the undefeated Floyd Mayweather Jr. in 2013. The 28-year-old showed a real evolution in his game in his two wars with Gennady Golovkin in 2017 and 2018. Canelo was predominantly a counter-striker, capitalizing on his opponents’ mistakes and making them pay with his thunderous shots to the body.

However, in the rematch with GGG, the Mexico native said he was going to meet the Kazakhstan native in the middle of the ring and exchange hands, and for the most part, he did just that, which is probably why he got the win in that tight battle. Alvarez went back to the body in his WBA super middleweight title fight with Rocky Fielding, dropping the England native multiple times with body shots en route to a third-round knockout victory.

Jacobs (+350) has picked up three straight victories following his unanimous decision defeat to Gennady Golovkin in 2017, just the second loss in his 37-fight career. The New York native had a streak of 12 straight fights that he won by knockout ended in that loss to GGG. Since then, over his current three-fight winning streak, each bout has gone the distance, and he hasn’t earned a knockout victory since 2016.

Make no mistake, though, the 32-year-old has outstanding power that has ended 29 of his 35 professional wins. He also does a good job answering punches with a long stiff jab as his opponents fire at him. Miracle Man doesn’t use a lot of extra energy by running around the ring, but rather uses great head movement and reflexes to avoid strikes. His left hand is extremely fast and he will often double it up, with a jab to the body followed by a jab to the head.

Jacobs slowed in the later rounds vs GGG and Canelo’s bodywork could result in a similar situation in their bout. I don’t think the Miracle Man can beat Canelo in a technical battle and will have to put him away with his tremendous speed and power. For Alvarez, I think he needs to play a more conservative game, as he usually does, work the body to put money in the bank and look to pick up the pace in later rounds searching for the finish.

Prediction: Canelo Alvarez (-500) via decision

Canelo Alvarez vs Daniel Jacobs Betting Odds
BoxerOdds
Canelo Alvarez-500
Daniel Jacobs+350

Odds as of May 2 at Bovada

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