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Naoya Inoue vs Jason Moloney Odds Analysis & Prediction

Inoue vs Moloney Betting Odds

Naoya Inoue, the No. 3 pound-for-pound boxer in the world, is ready to defend his WBA (Super), IBF and The Ring bantamweight titles against Jason Moloney on Saturday at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas, Nevada. A quick look at the Inoue vs Moloney odds shows the Japanese fighter, Inoue, is a sizable favorite with the Australian, Moloney, coming back as an underdog.

It is fitting that Inoue is getting the spotlight on Halloween. Nicknamed “The Monster,” with his record supporting that ring name, he is 19-0 with 16 knockouts and 13 of those fights ending in the sixth round or earlier.

As for “The Smooth One,” he is once again fighting for the IBF strap, after competing for it in 2018 against Emmanuel Rodriguez in a fight he lost by split decision. That was Moloney’s first and only pro loss as he brings to the ring a 21-1 record with 18 wins by knockout. Only two of his fights have reached the 10th round.

Online sportsbook Bovada has released the Inoue vs Moloney odds and Inoue is the -1000 chalk with Moloney the +600 underdog. This means that you would have to wager $1,000 to profit $100 with an Inoue victory, while a $100 bet on Moloney would profit you $600.

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According to our sports betting calculator, Inoue’s odds of -1000 have an implied win probability of 90.91 percent while Moloney’s odds of +600 have an implied win probability of 14.29 percent.

Naoya Inoue vs Jason Moloney Odds

BoxerOdds
Naoya Inoue-1000
Jason Moloney+600

Odds as of October 30 at Bovada

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Inoue vs Moloney Broadcast Information

  • Date/Time: October 31, 7:30 p.m. ET
  • Arena: MGM Grand Conference Center
  • Location: Las Vegas, Nevada
  • Where to Watch: ESPN, ESPN+

Inoue vs Moloney Odds Analysis

It’s no surprise to see The Monster as a large favorite as he has never been an underdog, though these are longer odds than he has seen in four of his last five fights. As Inoue climbed the ranks, very seldom could you find a line shorter than -4000, however, more recently the odds have been a little closer and around -700.

For most of The Smooth One’s career, he was the favorite in the range of around -650, though in his lone defeat against Rodriguez, he was a +500 underdog. It was a close contest that ended in a split decision, so what did he learn that he can put in place in this fight?

Inoue vs Moloney Preview & Prediction

Inoue is able to score knockouts at such a high rate due to his exceptional punching power, of course, but also because he sets up the head by working the body early and often. He is a bully in the ring and because he rarely has to load up on his punches, he can quickly close the distance, snap a jab or a quick hook to the body, and then get out without absorbing much damage.

The Monster does a good job when he enters the pocket to throw combinations, which he will vary from the body to head. His right hook is the punch his opponents have to be worried about because he throws it from awkward angles and if he lands it clean, it’s usually lights out for his foes.

Moloney has really good footwork which he uses to slide out of danger and laterally move to create angles for areas to land his punches. The Smooth One typically likes a phone-booth style of fight, making it gritty and ugly while going shot for shot with his opponents. His hooks are very accurate and powerful and he does a good job varying the speed of his attacks, which can catch his opponents off guard.

At times, he can be pressured, when he just keeps his guard high and lets his opponents throw against him, which could be dangerous against a power puncher like Inoue. As well, intentionally or not, Moloney will leave his punches long, perhaps to draw out a response from his counterpart so he can counter. When he gets the fight in tight, his winging body shots can wear on his foes, tiring them out while he continues his pressure until they break.

There are some recent factors that make betting on Moloney interesting. Last year when Anthony Joshua made his U.S. debut, he was stopped by Andy Ruiz. This, of course, is Inoue’s U.S. debut, and he is the No. 3 pound-for-pound fighter in the world. We just saw the former No. 1 pound-for-pound fighter, Vasyl Lomachenko, lose.

That said, Inoue’s got faster hands and more power. I think Moloney opens his body up frequently and that’s where The Monster will take advantage and ultimately stop The Smooth One.

Prediction: Naoya Inoue (-1000) via knockout in Rounds 7-9 (+300)