Paul vs Perry Odds & Picks: Don't Expect A KO

Jake Paul will be a -330 favorite over Mike Perry (+240 underdog) when the two fighters meet in a boxing match on July 20 at Amalie Arena in Tampa Bay, Florida.

Paul was in line to fight Mike Tyson, but that fight has been rescheduled for later this summer. In the meantime, the Paul vs Perry odds offer us some decent value to play with.

Here's our full Jake Paul vs Mike Perry betting preview, featuring odds and best bets. 

Jake Paul vs Mike Perry Odds

Jake Paul-330
Mike Perry+240

Odds as of July 15

According to our sports betting calculator, Paul's -330 odds give him a 76.74% chance of winning, and a $100 bet on him nets $130.30. Perry's +240 status gives him an implied 29.41% chance, with $100 paying out $340. 

Paul vs Perry Predictions: Who Will Win?

There is a flurry of factors to consider. How will Perry, a bare-knuckle fighting champ, handle large gloves? Can "Platinum" keep his gas tank for eight rounds? How will Paul handle a fighter willing to scrap?

Betting Preview: How Paul Wins

Paul has the size and power advantage, especially with this fight's weight limit set at 200 pounds. That's a cut for Paul, while Perry won't cut at all. "The Problem Child" wins this fight by abusing his simple combos and touching Perry up. Paul doesn't have to crush his opponent with every blow, but there needs to be an emphasis on consistent contact to back Perry up.

There's a rhythm in traditional boxing that doesn't exist in bare-knuckle fighting. Perry is like lightning in those rapid exchanges, but he'll struggle with a boxing cadence. Paul can thrive if he finds his rhythm early.

I like a bet on Paul to win by decision, as I'll bet he stymies Perry's offense.

Betting Preview: How Perry Wins

Perry must work quickly to capitalize before his energy wanes. The bare-knuckle format features five two-minute rounds, and that's without heavy gloves. Perry loves to duck in close and let it rip, but that strategy won't be effective with heavy gloves.

In short, Perry must mitigate his five-inch reach disadvantage. He can't just "be a 'dog" and swing to make things violent. Paul will sidestep those attacks and reset. Feints are Perry's friend, as are his counterstrikes and uppercuts that sneak inside Paul's guard.

Perry's underdog value makes a ML bet perfectly fine. But you can bet him by KO for more value, as an eight-round decision doesn't favor the ex-UFC fighter.

Jake Paul vs Mike Perry Picks

Perry's head is made of bricks. He'll take damage and keep going. This guy understands bare-knuckle damage, and he won't even come close to that level of pain in an eight-round dancefest with Paul.

If we rule out Perry being stopped, then I'll pick Paul to win by decision. He is bigger and utilizes a longer reach in the squared circle. 

Pick: Paul to win by decision (TBD)

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