The No. 9 pound-for-pound boxer in the world is set to entertain once again as Juan Francisco Estrada defends his WBC super flyweight title and looks to unify belts by taking Roman Chocolatito Gonzalez’s WBA super flyweight strap.
Estrada and Chocolatito will collide on March 13 at the American Airlines Center in Dallas, Texas, in a bout that can be seen on DAZN and is a rematch that was more than eight years in the making – Gonzalez earned a unanimous-decision victory over Estrada in 2012.
Looking at the Estrada vs Chocolatito odds, it is the WBC champ who is the slight favorite.
Online sportsbook Bovada has released Estrada vs Chocolatito odds with Juan Francisco listed as the -170 favorite and Gonzalez coming back as a +140 underdog. This means you would have to wager $170 to profit $100 on an Estrada win, while a $100 bet on a Chocolatito win would profit you $140.
Estrada vs Chocolatito Odds
|Juan Francisco Estrada||-170|
|Roman Chocolatito Gonzalez||+140|
Odds as of March 4 at Bovada
Looking at the Estrada vs Chocolatito odds with our sports betting calculator, Juan Francisco’s odds of -170 represent an implied win probability of 62.96 percent while Gonzalez’s implied win probability is 41.67 percent.
Estrada vs Chocolatito Odds Analysis
You would have been hard pressed to find value on Chocolatito when he was the No. 1 pound-for-pound boxer in the world from late 2015 to early 2017 according to The Ring magazine. Seeing him as an underdog is extremely intriguing but perhaps his best days are behind him and Estrada is the man with the value now?
Not the first time Gonzalez is an underdog
You don’t have to look too far back to see the last time that Roman Gonzalez was an underdog. He came in as the plus-money option two fights ago in late February 2020 against Khalid Yafai. Chocolatito won that fight via ninth-round knockout to win the WBA super flyweight belt. Outside of that fight, though, Gonzalez had been a large betting favorite, including being -5000 chalk in his prior bout against Diomel Diocos.
Does Estrada have revenge on his mind?
“El Gallo” has three decision losses on his record, vs Juan Carlos Sanchez Jr., Roman Gonzalez and Srisaket Sor Rungvisai. He has avenged two of those defeats with only Chocolatito remaining. Estrada has been in and around the -200 betting line for a few of his recent fights so -170 in this bout isn’t anything new. He was a large -5000 favorite in his first super flyweight title defense against Dewayne Beamon in August 2019, though.
Estrada vs Chocolatito Preview
Juan Francisco has exceptional counters but essentially only fires back when his opponent misses a punch rather than using his head movement or footwork to avoid the damage. As a result, he does have a bad tendency to stand in the pocket with his hands low looking to counter rather than defending the strikes.
Estrada’s great at putting guys away
Although El Gallo is primarily a counter-striker, he arguably does his best work when he becomes the aggressor. Furthermore, he is a shark with blood in the water when he knows that he has hurt his opponent, throwing powerful hook and uppercut combinations in his attempt to try to close the night out.
Chocolatito lives in the pocket
While Estrada tends to carry his hands low and looks to counter, Chocolatito usually marches forward with his hands glued to the sides of his head looking to close the distance and exchange hands in a phone booth. His check lead hook often stops his opponents in their tracks and it is usually followed by a more powerful hook.
Gonzalez can be hit on the body frequently with his high guard but dropping your level leaves openings for counter shots to the head. He’s most dangerous with his tight hook, the punch he relies on more times than not, but when he throws his right straight, he tends to have a lot of success.
Estrada vs Chocolatito Pick
Estrada should have the power advantage but leaving his hands low in the pocket could be his demise. Additionally, Chocolatito’s aggressive style won’t allow El Gallo to take rounds off as he has in the past, so he will have to make sure he conserves his energy properly or he could be worn down in the middle rounds. Ultimately, I think the odds are set just about right but I like Chocolatito to pick up a second win over Estrada with his forward pressure and success in the pocket.
Prediction: Roman Gonzalez (+140) via decision
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