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Why Conor McGregor Will Beat Floyd Mayweather

On Saturday, Conor McGregor will step into the boxing ring for the first time and attempt to shock the world by defeating Floyd Mayweather. The truth, however, is that a McGregor win shouldn’t be considered much of a shock at all. There’s an avalanche of evidence pointing in his direction and profits to be made by betting on the UFC superstar who’s younger, bigger, more powerful and more confident than the over-the-hill Mayweather.

Here’s why I think McGregor is the man to bet on in the Money Fight:

714 Days

Mayweather’s last fight was back on September 12, 2015, which means he’ll have gone 714 days between fights. This is the longest layoff of his career. If Mayweather was making his comeback to the sport in his prime physical years, this might not be a huge issue, but he’s coming back at 40 years old, far removed from his best years as an athlete.

Combining those two factors equals an incredible amount of ring rust that the more active and athletic McGregor will be able to take advantage of. It’s not realistic to expect a man who’s going to be 41 years old in February to win a fight vs a savage like McGregor who’s at the peak of his abilities as a fighter. He’s too old and has been away from high-level competition for too long.

Length Matters

Eleven consecutive fights spanning 10 years. This is the period of time that Mayweather has had the reach advantage vs his opponents. The last time he didn’t have the reach advantage was vs Oscar De La Hoya in 2007. This is a big deal as his reach often comes into play for his defensive, pitter-patter style of boxing, but it’s a luxury he won’t have vs McGregor.

Living on the outside and taking advantage of his 74-inch reach is what has always given McGregor a serious edge in the standup game. Combining that with a style and stance Mayweather has never seen before will lead to lots of confusion. A popular argument against McGregor is that he’s never been in a boxing match before, but I believe this will work in his favor. Mayweather can’t properly train for something the world has never seen before.

Safety will not be the best policy

There’s no debate about the fact that Mayweather is a very boring fighter. He deserves the distinction as the best defensive boxer ever, but it’s a style that won’t help him vs a bigger man like McGregor. The covering up and constant offensive timidness will result in him being a punching bag vs the much more powerful man. Mayweather will land more punches in this fight but he lacks the punching power to flat out stop McGregor.  He’ll try to cover up, he’ll try to use the jab to back McGregor off, but eventually, he’ll get caught.

Desperate man and an arbitrary number

Mayweather took this fight for all the wrong reasons and is making a big mistake. Ironically, ‘Money’ Mayweather is having trouble paying off his taxes and is suing the IRS to delay a payment of more than $20 MILLION until after this fight. It appears as if the leader of ‘The Money Team’ is blowing through all his dough and has no choice but to resort to a ‘Money Fight’ with the UFC’s lightweight champ.

The 49-0 record that Mayweather sports has nothing to do with this fight and won’t help him. He was a much younger and better boxer when he strung those wins together. Coming back at 40 to chase the number 50 was not a wise decision, but a desperate man who’s in debt like Floyd is doesn’t have any other options. He’s backed into a corner and will come out of it 49-1.

How To Bet on McGregor

McGregor wins this fight by one way and one way only – T/KO. Beating Mayweather by decision is out of the question. McGregor will go for the KO early and often, and that’s why you should bet the McGregor by T/KO prop at +500 as opposed to a straight-up win at +400 – odds courtesy of Bovada.

McGregor has already gone all-in with his prediction to finish Mayweather inside of four rounds. He’s been right with his bold prediction many times in the past and if you believe in the power of Mystic Mac, you can bet McGregor in round 1-4 at +700. I’ll be playing it a little safer and grabbing the T/KO prop.

Another question McGregor backers need to consider is when to place their bets on the Irishman. This line has moved like nothing I’ve ever seen before — after opening at -2250, Mayweather is now in the -600 range. I think once we get closer to the fight, some big money will start to come in on Mayweather, which will provide a more profitable number to bet McGregor at. Monitor the line movement closely, but I’ll likely be placing my bet within days of the fight.

My co-worker Justin Hartling has submitted his application to join The Money Team and is backing Mayweather. See his reasons here.