When Canadian Liberals meet on March 9 to select a new leader, they will do so just a few days before the Ides of March, the date in 44 BC that dictator Julius Caesar had a dagger inserted in his back by political colleague Brutus, who had decided Caesar had to go for the good of Rome.
In Shakespeare’s version of the events, Caesar uttered the words “Et tu, Brute?” (you too, Brutus?) as he lay dying.
There have been no odds posted on a Liberal leadership candidate saying “Et tu Chrystia?” over the next couple of months to Chrystia Freeland, the former deputy prime minister who decided Justin Trudeau had to go for the good of Canada, and whose unexpected resignation is seen as the figurative knife in the back that ended Trudeau’s reign.
Carney current chalk at -280 odds
But you can get odds on Freeland being the next leader of the Liberal party - currently listed at +125 at FanDuel - in second place behind odds-on favorite Mark Carney (-280), who has served as the governor of both the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England but has never run for public office.
Political wagering is a growth area for the gambling industry, along with other non-traditional bets sometimes called novelties.
“Novelty markets are a unique FanDuel Canada offering that merges the worlds of pop culture and entertainment, social media trends, sports, politics, and creates culturally relevant bets that resonate with Ontario customers,” said a statement FanDuel Canada made in response to a request from Odds Shark.
FanDuel also said that while traditional sports betting does attract a diverse group of adults passionate about sports, novelty welcomes fans with broader interests.
“FanDuel creates a space where all fans can engage in the excitement of making a prediction, whether it's betting on your favourite team to win the Super Bowl or wagering on who Kendrick Lamar will bring on stage at the Super Bowl LIX halftime show,” said the statement.
“Whether its traditional sports or novelty markets, FanDuel provides fans with odds that reflect the real time insights and updates. Setting the lines of a novelty or a sports market follows a similar process by predicting the likelihood of an outcome occurring through historical and current data, trends, and news developments.”
Commitment to responsible gaming
FanDuel also said it puts low maximum bets in place on novelty bets as part of its commitment to responsible gaming.
At PowerPlay.com, Sportsbook Product Manager Bill O’Brien said people bet differently on politics than they do on sports, based partly on demographics.
“In general, the bets tend to reflect the political leaning of the region. Recreational bettors tend to bet with their hearts,” said O’Brien. “For example, the Maple Leafs are the book’s biggest loser in Ontario every year despite not having won a Stanley Cup in 60 years. Their fans convince themselves they have a great chance going into each new season, despite all of the disappointments. If someone supports Donald Trump or Kamala Harris, they might also convince themselves they have a better chance of winning than they actually do. We found certain provinces were more likely to bet Trump, others more likely to bet Kamala, and generally this aligned with the political leaning of the province.”
One unintended consequence of betting on politics becoming more common is that as people in government are more exposed to wagering, there could be a trickle-down effect on decisions that impact the regulated industry.
“Betting on sports and politics are activities that are here to stay. The ability to do so will not just disappear, no matter which politicians are exposed to wagering,” O’Brien said. “Any political decisions that are made to negatively impact the regulated industry will result in the growth of the unregulated black market. In the black market there is no oversight, which can lead to some very unethical practices taking place. The regulated market is the safest place for bettors to place their wagers, and politicians trying to make this more difficult would be counterproductive, to say the least.”
O’Brien said for PowerPlay.com, it’s not necessarily easier or harder to set lines on a political contest than on a football game, but it is different, with the size and popularity of the market among the considerations.
“The U.S. presidential election, for example, is a huge global market with massive liquidity. When we offer this market, we mostly follow the global market’s lines - especially in the weeks/months leading up to the election,” he said. “Further out from an election when there is less liquidity, there will be more personal opinion factored into the odds. On smaller markets, like ‘Next Party Leader’, this is much more based on the opinion of the person setting the lines. Odds will then change depending on liabilities, and ‘sharp’ money will be respected. Obviously, for lots of these markets, there is the possibility that some bettors will have the inside track, and therefore odds will be adjusted when a selection is seeing lots of action.”
Debates could move lines
O’Brien added that the lines for an election can change for a number of reasons, such as a televised debate, an interview or a poll.
“Lines may not move for weeks or even months if the election is a long way out, or if the date of the market settling is unknown (for example, betting on the new leader of a party/leader of a country when the current leader is showing no signs of being likely to leave any time soon). Again, to bring it back to the U.S. election last November, in the couple of days leading up to the election there were so many line movements it could almost have been compared to the live betting of a sporting event,” he said.
“However, two years earlier, line movements on the market would have been seen much less frequently.”
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