The Premier League relegation odds aren't always fun to think about because we're betting on three teams failing so badly that they're kicked out of the Prem. But that's just the reality of the league, three teams have to be relegated. So which ones?
This year points deductions for breaking financial fair play rules might just have a larger impact than the games themselves.
Premier League Relegation Odds
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Sheffield United | -10000 |
| Burnley | -700 |
| Luton Town | -300 |
| Nottingham Forest | +275 |
| Everton | +300 |
| Brentford | +1600 |
Odds as of April 4
English Premier League Points Deductions So Far
Rarely do we see a team have points taken off the board. But this season we've seen Everton and Nottingham Forest receive points deductions. And we've still yet to learn what might come of Manchester City's 115 financial rule breaches or if Chelsea broke any rules after spending a billion on new players.
Everton received a 10-point deduction in November for £124.5 million in losses (over three years). That deduction was later reduced to six points. Effectively taking away two of Everton's eight wins on the year.
Nottingham Forest was docked four points in March because they lost £34.5 million above the threshold of £61 million (over the last two years) allowed by the Premier League. That takes away a precious win (of which they only had six) and one of seven draws.
English Premier League Relegation Favorites
There's no value in taking Sheffield or Burnley. They'll need a miraculous run of games a la Leicester in 2014-15 to avoid relegation. That year the Foxes won seven of their last nine games to move up from 20th to 14th.
Both Sheffield and Burnley are going to be relegated. As the odds suggest. They just don't have the right combination of offense and defense to get the job done down the stretch.
English Premier Leauge Relegation Best Value Bet: Everton
It looks like the Toffees have run out of gas. Everton hasn't won a game since a 2-0 win over Burnley in mid-December. In their 13 subsequent games, Everton has scored nine goals and conceded 22 goals. That's exactly a -1 goal differential per game. Horrible.
Think back to Leeds last year. They were 13th at the start of April 2023 but over their next 10 games, they went 0-2-8 and had a -2.2 goal differential per game.
While Everton isn't quite as bad as The Whites were last year, they're in the discussion. Which isn't what those on the blue side of Liverpool want to hear.
We might see the first of the original Premier League sides get the drop.
English Premier League Current Bottom Six
| Position | Team | Points |
|---|---|---|
| 20 | Sheffield United | 15 |
| 19 | Burnley | 19 |
| 18 | Luton Town | 22 |
| 17 | Nottingham Forest | 25 |
| 16 | Everton | 26 |
| 15 | Brentford | 28 |
Bold = In relegation zone. Table as of April 4
Last 10 Years Of Premier League Relegations
Looking over the last 10 years of the Premier League, here are the three relegated sides by season.
| Year | Relegated Team 1 | Relegated Team 2 | Relegated Team 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Southampton | Leeds United | Leicester City |
| 2022 | Norwich City | Watford | Burnley |
| 2021 | Sheffield United | West Brom Albion | Fulham |
| 2020 | Norwich City | Watford | Bournemouth |
| 2019 | Huddersfield | Fulham | Cardiff City |
| 2018 | West Brom Albion | Stoke City | Swansea |
| 2017 | Sunderland | Middlesbrough | Hull City |
| 2016 | Aston Villa | Norwich City | Newcastle United |
| 2015 | Queens Park Rangers | Burnley | Hull City |
| 2014 | Cardiff City | Fulham | Norwich City |
Looking at this list, you really get a sense of the struggles that Norwich City has gone through. They've been relegated four times in the past decade.
Fulham isn't too far behind with three relegations in the past 10 years. But unlike Norwich, the Cottagers have been able to stick in the Premier League. With Marco Silva at the helm as manager, Fulham made the top 10 for the first time since 2011-12.
