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Will Justin Trudeau And The Liberals Be Re-elected?

Trudeau Election Odds June 5 2018

As daily drama and scandal can sometimes overtake the narrative of American politics, the neighbors up north in Canada may have their own issues to deal with soon for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. Trudeau is in the midst of his third year in the top job in Ottawa and sportsbooks have released odds on whether the Boy Wonder and the Liberal party will be re-elected the next time Canadians go to the polls.

Online sportsbook Bovada has Trudeau and the Liberals listed as a -200 favorite to be back at 24 Sussex Drive after the next federal election, scheduled for October 21, 2019.  

Here are some factors to consider should you want to dabble in Canadian politics betting:

Why are the Liberals currently in power?

When the Grits won the federal election in 2015, the party jumped from 34 seats to 184, which is the single biggest jump in federal election history. The Liberals also had the distinction of becoming the first federal party to win a majority without having been the incumbent or the official opposition prior to the election.

breakdown of the 2015 Federal Election
  • 184 seats for Liberals (39.5%)
  • 99 seats for Conservatives (31.9%)
  • 44 seats for NDP (19.7%)
  • 10 seats for Bloc Quebecois (4.7%)
  • 1 seat for Green Party (3.5%)

Trudeau was seen in the media as a youthful new voice for Canadians since he had been voted in as the Liberal leader in 2013. The Grits used “Real Change” as his campaign slogan which piggybacked off the Obama campaign’s “Yes We Can” mantra to remove the old guard. Canadian voters came out in droves for the 2015 federal election and it had the highest voter turnout since 1993.

The Honeymoon Period Is Over

That being said, a lot has changed since 2015 and the good vibes brought in by Trudeau have dissipated as stagnant growth in Canada’s economy along with the potential overhaul of NAFTA have made his critics much more vocal in these “woke” times we live in.

Liberal Justin Trudeau is a -200 favorite to be re-elected.

Another factor that could intrude on Trudeau’s majority is the resurgence of the NDP under the leadership of Jagmeet Singh. The New Democrats dropped to 44 seats in 2015 after having a 95-seat hold as the official opposition in the House of Commons. In order for Trudeau to be re-elected, he would need a minimum of 170 seats and his rival parties most likely will be focusing heavily on ridings that were taken over by the Liberals in 2015 to prevent another majority.

But with the new faces of Singh and Andrew Scheer (Conservative leader) hovering around a full year in their respective roles, it’s hard to envision a full overhaul in the House of Commons, which makes a +160 wager on the Liberals to lose a potential sucker bet. It’s also worth noting that a back-to-back majority government is very common in Canada with only Stephen Harper not achieving this feat since 1980.

If you want to see the betting odds for how the 2020 U.S. federal election may unfold, click here.

Will Justin Trudeau and the Liberals be re-elected in next federal election?
  • Yes -200
  • No +160

Odds as of June 5 at Bovada

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