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Three Billboards The Odds-On Favorite To Win Best Picture

After a somewhat shocking performance at the Golden Globes and the Screen Actors Guild Awards, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri has become the favorite to win Best Picture at the 90th Academy Awards. Victories at the Globes and SAGs are not a guaranteed predictor of the results at the Oscars but they are certainly a good indication of which way the voters will lean.

Three Billboards has already created a division between critics and fans alike. Dark humor is something that does not play well with all audiences, it can be argued that the character of police officer Jason Dixon (played by Sam Rockwell) was far from excellent and race was handled terribly. However, the movie sports great direction and an all-star cast filled with an Oscar-worthy performance from Frances McDormand.

Undoubtedly, the biggest competition for Three Billboards will come from The Shape Of Water (+140). The Guillermo del Toro-led film landed the most Oscar nominations and is likely the best-crafted piece of cinema of his career. The touching love story between outcasts feels incredibly timely considering the atmosphere within America, most specifically. However, will the committee be anxious to vote for a film about the love of a mute woman and a fish man?

There will absolutely be buzz surrounding Get Out, which is probably the best-received film among both critics and audiences. However, the film is a horror comedy, two categories that are almost always ignored when it comes to big awards (it was winless at the Golden Globes).

90th Academy Awards – Odds To Win Best Picture
  • Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri -115
  • The Shape Of Water +140
  • Get Out +550
  • Lady Bird +1400
  • Dunkirk +3300
  • Call Me By Your Name +6600
  • The Post +10000
  • Darkest Hour +10000
  • Phantom Thread +10000
Odds as of March 1 via Bovada

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Though we are months away from the night itself, odds have hit the board for which film will win Best Picture at the 90th Academy Awards. Of course, with Oscar season just rolling around, it does feel a little presumptuous to declare potential nominations, let alone winners, but that’s not going to stop us.

Dunkirk is currently a +200 favorite. The Christopher Nolan-helmed film is less a film about war and more a film about survival. The grandeur and scope of the cinematography is counterbalanced by the dread and nearness viewers feel to the characters. Though it came out in the usual summer Hollywood blockbuster season, which could hurt because of the relative short memory of our culture, Dunkirk has proven to be the first legit Oscar contender of the year.

A film that may have gone overlooked by the more casual moviegoer is Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (+300). On the surface level, the movie seems like typical Oscar bait, as it is centered around a mother – played by Frances McDormand – who lost her young daughter before the film takes place. However, the film’s true focus is one of anger, the unfairness of life and maybe hope. Martin McDonagh’s script is fantastic, as the In Bruges director/writer creates a film that is entirely based on reality and not the black-and-white that films can fall into.

Looking toward value for bettors, The Florida Project could be an intriguing option at +1200. Much like Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, this film did not exactly make a huge pop culture landmark on the general consciousness. The story itself is a simple one but it’s in the minutia that this film excels. The smaller details make the entire film feel real and organic. Sean Baker’s writing and direction make this film feel entirely three-dimensional and all too real. 

90th Academy Awards – Odds To Win Best Picture
  • Dunkirk +200
  • Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri +300
  • The Post +450
  • The Shape Of Water +500
  • Call Me By Your Name +600
  • The Darkest Hour +900
  • Lady Bird +1000
  • The Florida Project +1200
  • Get Out +1400
  • Blade Runner 2049 +1800
  • Detroit +2000
  • Downsizing +2000
  • I, Tonya +2000
  • The Big Sick +2500
  • The Greatest Showman +2800
  • The Disaster Artist +2800
  • Wonder Woman +6600
Odds as of November 16 at BetOnline