When it comes to predicting political outcomes, it appears American betting markets aren’t the only ones that might be better than the national pollsters.
In five of the six latest polls, the gap between Remain and Leave was gauged to be three points or less. Sportsbook odds, on the other hand, suggest there is a 76 percent chance the UK will vote to Remain part of the EU.
That’s a bloody big difference.
The UK book has ‘Remain’ set as a cracking -400 favorite and currency markets suggest that bettors might be a little ahead of the polls here. The British pound rose to a five-month high this week and European markets saw their biggest three-day surge in over a year.
Although more wagers have come in on the ‘Leave’ side at Sportsbook and other books, it’s the bigger money that is pouring in on ‘Remain’. The average bet for ‘Remain’ is £376 compared to just £72 per ‘Leave’ wager even with 62 percent of bets are coming in on the latter.
Sportsbook reports a similar scenario where the average stake per Remain bet is £408.45 and the average per Leave bet is £77.54.
It’s a situation that’s a little like the one in the U.S., where bettors had a better handle on forecasting the U.S. Presidential situation than political pundits did when Donald Trump ultimately won the GOP nomination.
Vegas Dave bets $1 million on Miesha Tate
Dave Oancea, who is also known as Vegas Dave, made a YouTube video stating he’s risking $1 million on MMA star Miesha Tate to beat Amanda Nunez at UFC 200.
The bet will pay out $400,000 with a Tate victory at -250 odds and Oancea goes on to describe why he likes Tate in the video.
Oancea is known for calling some big MMA upsets in the past like Tate over Holly Holm and he received a $2.5 million payout on a $100K bet when the Kansas City Royals won the World Series last year.
New York passes Daily Fantasy bill
Don’t argue with me over whether or not DFS is gambling. We all know it is.
Yet many states continue to argue over this fact and New York is the latest to decide that playing Daily Fantasy is totally fine in their state – as long as they get their cut. The Senate passed a bill on the weekend that will allow DFS as long as pros declare themselves to other players and the state will get 15.5 percent of the profits that will go toward an education fund.
Hungary-Portugal go bananas
The best international fixedball match in years may have happened Wednesday afternoon when Hungary tied Portugal 3-3 at Euro 2016 in a back-and-forth wave of fun.
Paddy Power Tweeted that 29 of their punters had bet on the correct score finishing at 3-3 with 10 of them at 225/1 odds.