Another race another win for Red Bull’s Max Verstappen. It was an absolutely dominant display from Verstappen who effectively lead from start to finish on his home track. There may have been a bit of controversy due to the nature of Yuki Tsonada’s retirement from the race on lap 44, but it likely changed little in the overall scheme of things.
Naturally, Verstappen is the favorite going into the Italian GP according to sportsbook Sportsbook. But the gap between Verstappen and Leclerc, who’s second on the oddsboard is, quite something. Verstappen is a -275 favorite, a 73.33% implied odd to win, according to our odds calculator. Leclerc's odds are +600 to win in Ferrari’s home.
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Odds To Win Italian Grand Prix
Odds as of September 11 at Sportsbook
Who's The Favorite For The Italian GP?
Winning the last four races on the F1 calendar is a good place to start his justification for being the favorite here. His win last weekend may not have been as dominant as in Belgium where Max raced his way from the back to the lead, but not winning the Dutch GP didn't seem like a possibility.
In Italy, Max starts seventh due to a five-place grid penalty. His cars exceeded the number of power units. He had the second-fastest qualifying time after Ferrari's Charles Leclerc, but the power unit violation pushes him back. Starting in seventh, though, won’t be a big issue. Again, in Belgium, he began the race at the back of the pack and still took the race, comfortably.
Italian GP Likely Winner: Max Verstappen
The Dutch driver hasn't won this race yet in his so far impressive career. Adding the Italian GP to his resume of wins would continue that impressive push in 2022. Verstappen has made wins look easy of late.
The key this week will be to stay out of the pit lane as often as possible. Monza is a fast track, losing out by having to pit for what amounts to about 20-seconds is a massive loss for any driver.
Verstappen and Red Bull took a power unit violation pushing him back in qualification. That extra power is what Verstappen needed in 2020 to stay at the front of the pack on a course that prioritizes and rewards power. With that, the Red Bull driver has everything he needs to pull a first win in Italy.
Italian Grand Prix Props
Fastest Lap: Lewis Hamilton (+2000)
Hamilton has taken the fastest lap in Monza in twice of the last three races. In 2021, Australian Daniel Ricciardo took it as well as the checkered flag. Ricciardo’s top lap time in 2021 was 1:24.812. Both of Hamilton’s fastest lap times beat that. In 2019 Hamilton won the extra point with a 1:21.779 and in 2020 it was 1:22.746.
If not for a collision between Hamilton and Verstappen on lap 22 that saw both drivers force themselves out of the race, Hamilton could have potentially taken the extra point for a third Italian GP in a row.
That’s the potential for a $2,000 profit for a $100 winning bet on Hamilton taking the fastest lap gain
Winning Margin: Under 5 seconds (+160)
Over the last five Italian GPs only once has the winning margin over five seconds. That was in 2018 when Lewis Hamilton beat out Kimi Raikkonen by 8.705 seconds. Over the last three seasons, the winning margin has been 1.747, 0.415 and 0.835 seconds.