Max Verstappen won another stunning, nail-biting race in Austin, somehow staving off the power of Lewis Hamilton in the last few laps to increase his lead in the drivers standings. The F1 calendar now moves south to Mexico for Sergio Perez’s home race. Odds Shark breaks down the F1 odds for the Mexican Grand Prix below.
According to the F1 odds at BetOnline, Verstappen is heavily favored in the F1 odds to win the Mexican Grand Prix, followed by Mercedes’ Hamilton and Red Bull’s Perez.
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F1 Odds To Win Mexican Grand Prix
Odds as of November 4 at BetOnline Sportsbook
If there were any doubts whether Max Verstappen had the skill to stave off chasing cars, they would have been spectacularly quashed after his race defense on Lewis Hamilton at COTA to extend his lead in the drivers standings.
Hamilton made a sprightly start along the uphill straight up to turn 1 after the lights went out in Austin but couldn’t hold on, which allowed Verstappen to stretch his lead atop the standings.
Hamilton split the two Red Bull drivers on the podium while his Mercedes colleague Valtteri Bottas finished sixth. Charles Leclerc finished fourth and Daniel Ricciardo put in yet another classy drive to pick up vital points with a P5 finish.
Hamilton Or Verstappen?
Lewis Hamilton has moved up and down the F1 oddsboard for the last few races, almost purely for technical reasons instead of skill or form. His F1 odds for this Mexican Grand Prix have risen sharply to +200, which is more than just compelling for arguably the best F1 driver in the world.
He has lost some ground on his rival Verstappen after finishing second in Austin. However, he would be determined as ever not to yield more ground on Verstappen with just five races to go. Nonetheless, the return with these F1 odds is simply too strong a proposition to ignore.
“We gave it everything we had, and they were just quicker than us this weekend, for whatever reason,” Hamilton said after Austin. “I can’t pinpoint it. It looked like they had just a better rear end, a little bit less sliding than we had. We go into at least the next two tracks which are very strong circuits for Red Bull – so that’s going to be tough, for sure.”
Verstappen’s F1 odds to win the Mexican Grand Prix are -150, making him a heavy favorite. That is because along the straights of Mexico, you would expect this Red Bull car to be simply too strong in comparison to the W12.
Verstappen Is A Safe Bet
Without racing, Verstappen is simply too strong, which makes him a heavy favorite to also win qualifying and start from the pole. The likelihood from there is that he protects his lead again and picks up more points en route to a sensational drivers championship.
“We lost out in the start so we had to try and do something else, but the tire wear is quite high around this track so we did go aggressive and I was not sure it was going to work, but yes, the last few laps were fun,” Verstappen said after the race. “A bit sideways through the high-speed corners but super happy, of course, to hang on.”
Left-Field F1 Betting Predictions For Mexican Grand Prix
Sergio Perez (+1200) is back at home in Mexico. He has returned Red Bull’s faith with a couple of podium finishes. He has already won a race this season in Baku. If there is a clash between Hamilton and Verstappen (and don’t discount this from happening again after Monza), then Perez will be there to pick up the pieces.
Other noteworthy options are Mercedes’ Valtteri Bottas (+2000), who has been in sprightly and blistering speed after his constructor announced he will be moving to Alfa Romeo next season. The irony of that aside, Bottas is no pushover, not by any means.
The McLaren drivers have also picked up in the second half of the season, with Daniel Ricciardo (+6600) and Lando Norris (+4000) in good racing form. Apart from the appalling shoey, Ricciardo is a well-supported driver in decent rhythm.
History Of The Mexican Grand Prix
This track has a rich history behind its construction. The father of Ricardo and Pedro Rodriguez, a famous racing sibling pair from the country, pitched the idea of building a racetrack in Mexico City’s Magdalena Mixiuhca sports park using the internal roads to then president Adolfo Lopez Mateo. The track was completed within a year, in 1959.
The first race was in 1963, won by Jim Clark. This track returned to the F1 calendar in 2015 after a brief hiatus. The lap record at this track is a time of 1:18.741, set by Valtteri Bottas in 2018.
There will be a total of 305.354 kilometers of racing in Mexico, split into 71 laps of 4.304 kilometers each. After a couple of counter-clockwise tracks, Formula 1 will return to clockwise racing here. There are a total of 16 turns, with two DRS detection zones: the first between turns 9 and 10 and the second between 14 and 15.
This track sits two kilometers above sea level, which could make it a high-octane, energy-sapping experience for the drivers. The entire first sector, with the notable exception of a couple of turns, is along a straight representing an L. Watch for the tow and the slipstream to aid overtaking.
There is almost no chance of rain on Sunday in Mexico City, which will be good news for Red Bull and Mercedes as they let the power of their respective engines and car aerodynamics reign over the rest of the chasing pack.
Betting Strategy For The Mexican Grand Prix
Hamilton’s F1 odds are too good to ignore. From a technical standpoint, it looks like Red Bull are too strong and should continue to ride on their recent momentum. Their engine has been too powerful on straights and that will continue here in Mexico.
If you’re looking for probability, then the likelihood is that Red Bull and Verstappen should be too strong in Mexico. If you’re looking for an underdog, then Hamilton is the best choice. Personally, I’d go for Hamilton because there is a bit more experience when it comes down to the last few races of a grueling season.
Odds For Grid Position Of Winner
|3rd or 4th place||+500|
|5th, 6th or 7th place||+1200|
|8th to 13th place||+2000|
|Any other position||+2000|
Odds as of November 4 at BetOnline Sportsbook
How To Bet Grid Position Of Winner
This is a technical market, so you might want to treat it as such. Here are the factors that will be at play. The long straight up to turn 1 and the second long straight after the first few turns are perfect for the tow. Not so much as it is in Sochi but not insignificant either.
The DRS detection zones will not come into play until much later in the lap but these are stretches where the engines of Mercedes and Honda will power their cars forward, move a driver into a slipstream and then significantly increase overtaking potential.
Based on this information, the driver that starts from second place (+250) seems to be the ideal choice. There are good odds that the driver who starts second is either Verstappen or Hamilton. If it’s Verstappen, then these odds will shorten further.
Odds Shark will return in a fortnight to update you with the new F1 odds as this fascinating season moves from Central America to South America with the Brazilian Grand Prix.