Mercedes continued their dominance in the constructors’ standings with P1 and P5 in Turkey, while Max Verstappen regained the lead of the drivers’ standings with P2 in the previous race. How will this enthralling season pan out after the United States Grand Prix? Odds Shark breaks down the race in Austin along with prop betting suggestions for the US Grand Prix below.
According to the F1 odds at Sportsbook, Lewis Hamilton (-110) is a heavy betting favorite for the United States Grand Prix followed by Max Verstappen (+160), Valtteri Bottas (+1200), and Sergio Perez (+2000).
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Who Are The Favorites To Win the 2021 United States Grand Prix?
Odds as of October 20 at Sportsbook
Valtteri Bottas continued his fine run of form in F1 after Mercedes announced his move to Alfa Romeo next year. He helped Mercedes sustain their lead in the F1 constructors’ standings with a win in Turkey in wet conditions.
"I think from my side, I have to say, probably one of the best races I’ve had ever,” Bottas said after the race. “Just apart from that one little slide, everything was under control, but like I said before the race, the car has been good in every condition. It’s not easy to choose the strategy here with these conditions, when to stop and which tire and everything, but I’m glad everything went smooth for once for me and that’s nice.”
Lewis Hamilton had to start at P11 after taking a 10-placed grid penalty for a new combustion engine. He raced his way up to third at one point in that race before he was convinced to change his intermediate tires, which ended up costing him two spots.
Max Verstappen finished second in the new-look white Red Bull followed by his colleague Sergio Perez, who rounded off the podium spots. Charles Leclerc, who had to pit with wearing tires, finished fourth to pick up some vital points for the Scuderia Ferrari.
Hamilton Or Verstappen?
Lewis Hamilton has been in steady form through the last few races, a run of form that was sparked by a sensational performance at Silverstone. He has been much better than Verstappen in the last few races, which has seen his F1 odds for the US Grand Prix shorten to -110 presently. Armed with a new combustion engine as well, Hamilton could be a force along the straights of Austin as well as the corners.
“I spent plenty of time speaking to the team about how we can advance and improve,” Hamilton said. “I’ve been doing this a long time, so I’ve found ways personally, and what works for me won’t work for everyone, but I know what makes me tick, what puts me on course and what can put me off course, and I stick to them.”
Verstappen will now be pleased with retaking the lead in the drivers’ standings after finishing P2 in Turkey. That pushed him six points ahead of Hamilton. However, he is up against not just Hamilton but also the in-form Bottas, who could be used as and when needed by Mercedes to stall Verstappen.
In a sport of such fine margins, that could be the difference between P1 and a finish outside the top six. For now, Verstappen has F1 odds of +160 for the race in Austin.
“We have always been competitive in the US and have got close to some good results,” Verstappen said, “so it's about converting that into a win now. We go to every track now knowing that we can fight at least for a podium now, but also a win and that is different to past years. We are focussed on doing the best we can and always trying to win the race, and that will be no different in Austin.
Left-Field F1 Betting Predictions for The 2021 US Grand Prix
Bottas’ incredible form has pushed him up the F1 oddsboard for Austin. He had a spectacular race in Monza as he raced back to the podium after starting 20th. He also won the Turkish Grand Prix. These are signs of a driver free of the shackles of an uncertain future. Suddenly, F1 odds of +1200 for a driver in Mercedes is more than just compelling.
Even though Sergio Perez finished on the podium in Turkey, he has not quite been at his best this season. Still, he is in a quick car armed with a powerful Honda engine. So, discount him at your own peril.
History of the United States Grand Prix
The Circuit of The Americas was designed by Hermann Tilke along with HKS, an American architectural firm. The first grand prix at this circuit was back in 2012, a race that was won by Lewis Hamilton for the final time in a McLaren car. The lap record at this track was set by Charles Leclerc with a time of 1:36.169.
There will be a total of 308.405 kilometers of racing on Sunday, split into 56 laps with a circuit length of 5.513 kms. There will be 20 turns, split into three sectors. There are also two DRS detection zones: the first between turns 10 and 11 and the second between turns 18 and 19.
This track will also run counterclockwise. In terms of the slipstream, drivers will likely be able to use the tow on two long straights. The first is from the grid up to turn 1 and the second between turns 11 and 12.
There are scattered showers forecast for Sunday in Austin. Not so much that it should impact the race like it did in Turkey though. This might be a race for the dry tires through the duration of Sunday.
Betting Strategy For The US Grand Prix
Even though the F1 odds for Hamilton have shortened drastically and quickly, I’d still be looking at him for the Sportsbook in Austin. He has played the long game for a while now, limiting his damage and taking the available points on offer. Now will be his time to pounce on any opportunities he gets.
This season has probably come down to one crucial DNF, which will define the campaign. With Bottas in fantastic form, Mercedes might be the constructor to back in Austin.
Odds as of October 20 at Sportsbook
Who To Bet On To Finish On The Podium?
Lewis Hamilton and Max Verstappen are two simple answers but their F1 odds of -350 and -300 respectively are not exactly compelling. For the third spot, there are several options, in the value category as well as a likely favorite.
Based on recent results, it’s hard to look past Bottas to help Mercedes with a double podium finish. I wouldn’t rule out a 1-2 Mercedes lockout either. While that is unlikely, it will all but ensure that Hamilton wins the race and Bottas finished on the podium.
However, from a value standpoint, Sergio Perez finishing on the podium in Turkey might just instil some confidence in his form and nature of driving in Austin. He is not too far from his home in Mexico, which meant a shorter flight and a more rejuvenated Perez. He is certainly a value option, particularly at F1 odds of +275.
Apart from the value of Perez, there are other options as well, including Ferrari’s Charles Leclerc (+350) and a resurgent Lando Norris (+275), who has been exceptional in his McLaren this season.
Odds Shark will return in a fortnight to update you with the new F1 odds for Sergio Perez’s home race in Mexico. Till then, you can have a look at our F1 championship odds page for more of this stunning season of racing.