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A late double bogey from James Hahn spoiled our chances of a nice top-10 wager at the Zozo Championship last week in Japan. Missing out on a +1200 ticket by a single stroke stings a bit, but I like the direction this article in particular is heading going into the Bermuda Championship.
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At Sportsbook, tournament favorite Matt Fitzpatrick is -200 to finish inside the top 20. According to our odds calculator, this implies a 66.67 percent chance for him to do so this week. Needing to lay $200 to profit $100, we will instead search further down the Bermuda Championship betting board in search of some perceived value.
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Bermuda Championship Prop Bets: What To Look For
In two editions of this tournament at Port Royal Golf Club, two seasoned veterans have come away victorious. Arriving with hardly any form, players’ troubles have disappeared in Bermuda, making our job all the more difficult.
Brendon Todd came to the Robert Trent Jones design in 2019 having missed seven of his last nine cuts and Brian Gay had missed the weekend in nine of his previous 10 outings on the PGA Tour. With such randomness so to speak, selecting potential outright selections almost seems like a fool’s errand.
However, with a field of 131 players at the Bermuda Championship and a cut finally presenting itself on the PGA Tour, we can attack the top-10 and top-20 markets through which we have been successful. And while Port Royal GC is a short course on paper, the forecasted high winds and inclement weather should force a stern examination of one’s game this week.
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With the course stretching just short of 6,900 yards, plenty of length is buried in the four par 3s as three of them measure north of 200 yards on the scorecard. Combine those holes with the three par 5s on the property and one may be surprised to find out six approach shots are likely to come from outside of 200 yards depending on the wind direction.
With the winning scores of 15 under and 24 under, I would expect to find the eventual victor somewhere in the mid- to upper teens under par. As for this article, we will look to those who will be close, but not quite close enough at the Bermuda Championship. Fairway finders, strong par-3 players, and those who get the most of their rounds will find their names in our Bermuda Championship best bets.
Bermuda Championship Prop Bets & Best Bets: Our Recommendations
Max McGreevy (+500 To Finish Inside The Top 10)
Putting the finishing touches on our Bermuda Championship bets for the week, a number of players have since dropped out of the tournament. For whatever reason, the field continues to shrink as the alternate list and qualifying criteria have been exhausted. Paul Barjon unfortunately decided to forgo the Bermuda Championship, meaning one of our outright selections is voided as well.
I have since replaced the Frenchman with McGreevy, who I have every intention of betting for a top-20 wager. Now with some investment in him in the outright department at +15000, I figure we may as well go in-depth on his Bermuda Championship chances.
Missing the cut in his first two starts of his rookie campaign on the PGA Tour, I reckon a course such as Port Royal GC should suit his game. Never considered the longest of hitters, the former Oklahoma Sooner is known more for his accuracy. Finding fairways with regularity during his Korn Ferry Tour days, it has yet to translate to success on the PGA Tour.
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However, the pieces of the puzzle appear to be there. Posting +3.9 SG: Approach over two rounds at the Fortinet Championship, McGreevy failed to find his form on and around the greens. In his next start at the Country Club of Jackson, the 26-year-old took to the Bermuda putting surface, gaining nearly four strokes over two days. Now, if he can just marry those two outings, he should find the weekend and possibly the first page of the leaderboard for the first time this season.
Brandon Wu (+500 To Finish Inside The Top 10)
Plenty of Korn Ferry Tour graduates have made the Bermuda Championship betting card this week, so what’s the price of one more. Wu may be best known for receiving his diploma from Stanford just off the 18th green at Pebble Beach during the 2019 U.S. Open, but he surely can play. A win and two runner-up finishes were good enough to secure his PGA Tour status and I expect some similar form to arrive in Bermuda this week.
The beginning to his PGA Tour career has been rocky, to put it lightly. Teeing it up three times this season, the 24-year-old has yet to make a cut. With his six rounds reading 71-75-69-71-73-69, it has been a lot of mundane golf, which does not bode well for these shootout-type settings.
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What he has done well thus far is find fairways, despite what his strokes gained off-the-tee figures may suggest. Finding the short grass with more consistency than the competition in each start, that should bode well for Wu at Port Royal GC. A strong par-3 player and comfortable on Bermuda greens, if Wu is able to clean up the loose swings that have hindered him to begin the season, he surely can make his way inside the top 20 of the Bermuda Championship.
Camilo Villegas (+700 To Finish Inside The Top 10)
Attempting to figure out Villegas is always a tough proposition, but I am willing to give it a go this week at the Bermuda Championship. Arriving to Port Royal GC having made six of his last seven cuts dating back to last season, the Colombian should improve on his Bermuda Championship record. Collecting a T-55 finish last season, Villegas put together rounds of 72-71-71-71.
He has since found his footing, gathering quality finishes of T-6 at the RSM Classic, T-8 at the Honda Classic, T-17 at the Valero Texas Open and T-11 at the Valspar Championship. With some potential parallels to those coastal, windy, tight venues, the 39-year-old has shown he can contend when the going gets tough.
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With winds up to 30 mph at some points during the week and thunderstorms likely to roll through, I want a fierce competitor like Villegas in my back pocket. He will need to be more accurate off the tee, but the irons and short game showed flashes of form at TPC Summerlin. Couple this with his affinity for putting on Bermuda grass and I believe Villegas will thrive this week at the Bermuda Championship.
Kurt Kitayama (+900 To Finish Inside The Top 10)
Kitayama, a two-time Sportsbook on the European Tour, secured his PGA Tour status via the Korn Ferry Tour Finals this summer. Mentioning three different circuits in one sentence, the Las Vegas resident is well-versed in playing in various areas of the globe and should have no issues in his Bermuda Championship debut.
After missing the cut in his first start at the Fortinet Championship, the 28-year-old bounced back at the Sanderson Farms Championship with a T-45 finish. Gaining +5.7 SG: Approach, Kitayama ranked third in that category behind Henrik Norlander and eventual champion Sam Burns.
Sufficiently long off the tee, Kitayama will need to utilize his distance advantage effectively in order to put together a quality outing. Able to dismember par 3s and par 4s, it is the scorable par 5s that usually trip him up. If he can hold his own on those three holes throughout the week, he should be able to gain strokes on the field via the remaining holes.
