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2021 Charles Schwab Challenge: Odds to Win and Expert Picks

Kevin Na surveys the 13th green with his caddie at the Charles Schwab Challenge in Fort Worth, Texas.

It’s hard to believe it has been a year since the PGA Tour resumed play following the COVID-19 shutdown. The Charles Schwab Challenge presented an opportunity for the best players in the world to showcase their skills for the first time in nearly three months. Daniel Berger was up to the challenge in 2020, but the question is, who will be up to the challenge for the 2021 Charles Schwab Challenge?

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Last year, Berger was able to outlast the likes of Collin Morikawa, Xander Schauffele and Bryson DeChambeau. With a missed par-putt from the blade of Morikawa in a playoff, the Florida State University product secured his first victory since the 2017 FedEx St. Jude Classic after battling a nagging wrist injury for years.

At Bovada, childhood friends Jordan Spieth and Justin Thomas lead the way as 2021 tournament co-favorites at +1000, with an implied probability to win of 9.09 percent. If successful, a $100 bet on either of them would net you $1,000 profit.

Morikawa is close behind at +1400 while Berger and Abraham Ancer are both at +1800 to round out the golfers below +2000 odds. Last week’s PGA champion, Phil Mickelson, a two-time winner at Colonial Country Club, sits at +5000.

2021 Charles Schwab Challenge Odds
Jordan Spieth+1000
Justin Thomas+1000
Collin Morikawa+1400
Abraham Ancer+1800
Daniel Berger+1800
Patrick Reed+2200
Scottie Scheffler+2200
Tony Finau+2200
Will Zalatoris+2200
Corey Conners+2500
Sungjae Im+2500
Joaquin Niemann+2600
Brian Harman+3300
Gary Woodland+3300
Justin Rose+3300
Charley Hoffman+4000
Jason Kokrak+4000
Billy Horschel+5000
Chris Kirk+5000
Emiliano Grillo+5000
Matt Wallace+5000
Phil Mickelson+5000
Ryan Palmer+5000

Odds as of May 26 at Bovada

Head over to Bovada to see the rest of the book’s list of golf odds.

Can Justin Thomas Bounce Back from Missed Cut at Kiawah?

It was a surprising missed cut at the Ocean Course for the world No. 2 and 2017 PGA Championship winner. Untimely three-putts and wayward tee shots were the story of Thomas’s two days on Kiawah Island. He now comes to Colonial CC as the co-favorite and will be making his second start in Fort Worth.

Last year, in his tournament debut, Thomas finished in a tie for 10th despite being negative in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee. He’ll need to marry the driver with his exquisite iron play if he wants to have a chance to capture his second victory of the 2020-21 PGA Tour season.

How will Phil Mickelson fare after historic PGA Championship?

After one of the most memorable victories in the history of golf, Mickelson will take no time to celebrate and tee it up this week for the Charles Schwab Challenge. A two-time winner at Colonial CC, but not since 2008, Mickelson’s confidence should be at an all-time high this week.

The 50-year-old is playing with house money as any further victories are icing on the cake in an already Hall of Fame career. After the PGA Championship, nothing should surprise you when it comes to Mickelson, not even if he finds his way into contention this week.

Course and Analysis

The 2021 Charles Schwab Challenge takes place at the famed Colonial Country Club in Fort Worth, Texas. Measuring just north of 7,200 yards, this par-70 requires precision off the tee, strong iron play and a timely short game. Known for the “Horrible Horseshoe,” holes 3 through 5 typically play as one of the most difficult stretches of holes on the PGA Tour year in and year out.

The cream tends to rise to the top at Colonial Country Club as evidenced by the last five winners of this event: Daniel Berger, Kevin Na, Justin Rose, Kevin Kisner and Jordan Spieth.

PGA Charles Schwab Challenge Expert Picks

Prior to the tourney starting on Thursday, our PGA golf expert gave his best bets for the 2021 Charles Schwab Challenge, based on the latest odds.

Sungjae Im +2500

It felt as if Sungjae Im was hovering around the top of the leaderboard for the entire weekend at the PGA Championship. A late stumble on Sunday left Im in a tie for 17th as he continued his solid play of late. The 2020 Honda Classic champion has yet to really contend in 2021, but I fully expect that to change at the Charles Schwab Challenge.

Outside of the Wells Fargo Championship, where he shot 11 over in the second round, Im has been brilliant tee-to-green. He gained 6.4 strokes in that category at the Ocean Course, which was good for his best performance since the Sentry Tournament of Champions. At the Valspar Championship and the RBC Heritage, Im gained north of 4.5 strokes tee-to-green in each start.

Coming off an extended layoff, like his peers, Im finished T-10 at last year’s Charles Schwab Challenge. The combination of his steady driving and reliable putting should suit Colonial CC to a tee. If he is able to strike his irons like we have seen in the past, he should be in the conversation come Sunday afternoon.

Charley Hoffman +4000

Alongside Im at T-17 on the PGA Championship leaderboard was Hoffman. It was another week of phenomenal ball-striking for the wily veteran, who appears to be going through somewhat of a resurgence in 2021. For the week, Hoffman was third in Strokes Gained: Approach at Kiawah Island, a statistic that bodes well for him at Colonial CC. He’ll need to improve around and on the greens if he wants to continue his recent run of quality results, but I am confident he will be able to.

A T-17 at the PGA Championship was his fourth top-20 in a row. Top-20s at the Valspar Championship and RBC Heritage came on the heels of a runner-up finish to Jordan Spieth at the Valero Texas Open. All in all, since March, Hoffman has finished outside the top 20 only once in seven starts – a T-34 finish at the Corales Punta Cana Championship.

Texas has been kind to Hoffman over the years, as his last victory came in the Lone Star State in 2016. As for the Charles Schwab Challenge, I won’t be putting too much stock in his missed cut in 2020, as it was his first start after the COVID-19 break. Previously, he had finishes of T-13 in 2019 and T-52 in 2018. He gained 5.1 SG: Putting in 2018 and if that’s the case this year, then he’ll surely be in the mix.

Matt Kuchar +7000

The Ocean Course at Kiawah Island was never going to be a course that Kuchar would thrive at. A missed cut at last week’s PGA Championship will likely muddy the waters when it comes to Kuchar’s popularity this week, but I will gladly jump in head first. The ball-striking wasn’t all that bad last week; it was mostly the putting as Kuchar lost nearly five strokes on the greens.

He now returns to Texas, where he has had more than his fair share of success. What has been a rather disappointing 2021 season has been saved by three quality starts, all of them in Texas. A third-place finish at the WGC Dell-Technologies Match Play was followed up with top-20s at both the Valero Texas Open and the AT&T Byron Nelson.

With finishes of T-6 in 2016 and T-12 in 2017, the runner-up in the 2013 Colonial Plaza Invitational, now known as the Charles Schwab Challenge, should be able to lean on past success at Colonial CC. I believe he’s worth a wager this far down the board as he has proven in the past that if he is in the thick of things, he can get the job done.

Live Betting

Live Betting is arguably one of the most exciting and sometimes even profitable ways to bet on golf. If a player that you placed a pre-tournament bet on is out of the running at any point during the 2021 Charles Schwab Challenge, don’t be afraid to hitch your wagon to a different horse to have some more stake in the tournament.

By utilizing Strokes Gained metrics, we are able to make informed, analytical decisions that can help predict outcomes of tournaments. By combing through live odds, we are able to select those players whom we deem undervalued while the tournament is well underway.

These helpful pages will assist you in handicapping your golf wagers:

  • Betting News: All the golf betting news necessary to give you an edge when placing your bets on the PGA Tour.​
  • Odds/Futures: A comprehensive list of every golfer and their betting odds for upcoming tournaments.
  • Best Golf Sites: A breakdown of the top sportsbooks on the internet to wager on golf. Find the shop that’s right for you!