With our outright wagers placed, we now turn to the prop market for our expert selections for the CJ Cup at the Summit Club. It’s always important to search for value in the top finishing markets, so remember to shop around for the best lines for your 2021 CJ Cup prop bets as they typically differ from sportsbook to Sportsbook
Nearly cashing in on two of our best bets at the Shriners Children’s Open, we came away from the first week in Vegas with a smile on our face. Tom Hoge at +500 was able to find his way inside the top 20 and Jimmy Walker fell just a couple of strokes short when all was said and done. Looking to keep the momentum rolling down the street at the Summit Club, we now turn our attention to the CJ Cup for our best bets.
At Sportsbook, tournament favorites Justin Thomas and Dustin Johnson are -155 to finish inside the top 20. According to our odds calculator, this implies a 60.78 percent chance either will do so this week at the CJ Cup. Since that would require us to lay $155 to profit $100, we will instead look further down the CJ Cup betting board in search of some value.
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The CJ Cup At The Summit Club: What To Look For
With fewer than 80 players in the field this week at the Summit Club, there is a unique Sportsbook through which players may find themselves inside the top 20 by week’s end. Coupled with a guarantee of four rounds since there is no cut, the CJ Cup really fits our bill from a betting perspective.
All players – except for members Collin Morikawa and Maverick McNealy – will start from a level playing ground, so to speak. With no previous course history to really go on, youngsters and poor putters will not be put at a disadvantage having to play a course for the very first time. When such a scenario arises, ball-striking reigns supreme as it takes a couple of rounds on the course for players to become comfortable on the greens.
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Perhaps drawing from other Tom Fazio designs, one may look to previous results from Caves Valley, Quail Hollow, Congaree and last year’s edition of the CJ Cup at Shadow Creek. It was there that Jason Kokrak and Xander Schauffele battled down the stretch.
Both of them have had success at Colonial Country Club with Kokrak claiming last season’s Charles Schwab Challenge and Schauffele squandering a final-round lead the previous year. This hypothesis would bring a whole new pool of players into the fold as those with ties to the state of Texas appeared to fare well last year at Shadow Creek.
In total, there is plenty to digest this week for the CJ Cup between the betting odds and the Summit Club’s possible correlation to other courses. What we can confirm is how one is playing coming into this week and that will likely hold the bulk of our analysis. With this in mind, we will target those who may be ready to peak from tee to green at the Summit Club for our CJ Cup best bets.
CJ Cup At The Summit Prop Bets & Best Bets: Our Recommendations
Lucas Glover (+450 to finish inside the top 20)
A member at Congaree and a previous Sportsbook at Quail Hollow, Glover is one of many players to have taken to Tom Fazio designs. Playing in the CJ Cup for the first time since 2019 and only the second time in his career, the South Carolina native is coming in having made three consecutive cuts. While that won’t matter this week, it is comforting to know he has been playing well enough to make his way into the weekend.
That is typically when his troubles begin to fester from a ball-striking perspective. For one reason or another, Glover’s approach play disappears in the latter rounds of a tournament. Needing to stomach some suspect putting as well, I am willing to chance that this unfortunate trend comes to an end at the CJ Cup.
Overall, he been quite steady from tee to green from a full-tournament perspective, now gaining strokes on the field in three straight outings. Looking for convincing information that his putting is misleading, I stumbled on his last performance on a Fazio design.
Losing -1.6 strokes putting at the BMW Championship at Caves Valley – a decent result for Glover – it was really just one round that was his undoing. Outside of the third round, the recent John Deere Classic Sportsbook actually posted 1.4 Strokes Gained: Putting. If he can somehow avoid the weekend letdown and the uncooperative putter, Glover’s affinity for Tom Fazio should be able to shine through, thus making for our first best bet for the CJ Cup.
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Harry Higgs (+450 to finish inside the top 20)
Hopefully over his hangover from Sunday, Higgs played quite well at the Shriners Children’s Open despite his public disappointment. A player known for being strong off the tee and tidy on and around the green, the former SMU Mustang flashed some form with his irons at TPC Summerlin. While he gained less than a stroke on the field on approach, it is still something, as it marked the first time he accomplished such a feat since late July.
Nearly capturing a top-20 in last season’s CJ Cup – he tied for 21st – Higgs arrived off a missed cut at the Shriners the week before. Likely partaking in some weekend activities, he was unaffected and played well in the limited field at Shadow Creek. Acclimated to the nightlife and the altitude, I fancy the bundle of joy’s chances at the Summit Club.
Sportsbook
With four top-40 finishes in his last five outings, Higgs continues to get the job done, albeit in an unconventional manner. Never one to wow you with his ball-striking, the uptick at TPC Summerlin is enough to get me excited. He has not putted great to begin the new season and that should change sooner or later. For our sake and for the sake of our CJ Cup prop bets, I am hoping it changes this week at the Summit Club.
Keith Mitchell (+550 to finish inside the top 20)
A strong driver of the golf ball with past success on Tom Fazio designs, it is Mitchell – not Rory McIlroy – who makes his way onto our list of best bets for the CJ Cup. Combined with some quality finishes as of late and a few more in Texas throughout his career, the former Georgia Bulldog may be flying under the radar this week at the Summit Club.
Yes, his putting has been poor to begin the season, losing more than eight combined strokes on the greens in two starts. However, the ability to bounce back has been well documented, specifically when the bounce-back spot is on a Fazio design. It was not all that long ago that Mitchell lost 12 strokes on the greens of the Copperhead Course – due to an actual faulty putter – and came back the next week at Quail Hollow and gained 3.5 strokes on the greens en route to a top-five finish.
Throw in performances of +7.2 SG: Putting at the 3M Open and +5.4 SG: Putting at the Northern Trust and Mitchell is just as likely to boom as he is to bust. Missing the cut by one stroke last week, he battled back from a poor Sportsbook round to gain +1.27 SG: Off-the-Tee, +1.43 SG: Approach and 0.88 SG: Around-the-Green in Round 2. With hopes he carries this momentum into the Summit Club, Mitchell finds himself as one of the best bets for the CJ Cup.
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Hudson Swafford (+650 to finish inside the top 20)
Needing to get the better of 60 players or so, there is inherent value down the board of the CJ Cup in Swafford, who is a volatile option typically but is known for making the very most of his starts when his form arrives. An event with no cut should be to Swafford’s liking as he missed the first two of his season.
Bouncing back last week at the Shriners Children’s Open, the 34-year-old finished in a tie for 56th after carding a final round of 4-under 67. After gaining strokes on the field both off the tee and on approach for the second consecutive outing, perhaps a return to his postseason prowess is in his near future.
It was not so long ago that Swafford entered the final round of the BMW Championship on the cusp of qualifying for the Tour Championship before he faltered and finished in a tie for 17th. In a similar event on a Fazio design – as was his runner-up finish at Congaree – I am willing to chance Swafford can muster up a similar result, thus rounding out our best bets for the CJ Cup.
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