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Expert PGA Betting Picks: WGC-Mexico Championship

Tommy Fleetwood PGA Tour

Look, predicting a pre-tournament winner in golf isn’t easy. While it’s true sports bettors can find fantastic value, it’s incredibly frustrating when one of your picks doesn’t even make the cut. That’s why I’m here to help.

Every week I’ll highlight three golfers who have a good chance to win the hardware for the upcoming weekend. This week it’s the first World Golf Championship event of 2018, the WGC-Mexico Championship.

For a full breakdown of the tournament, check out my betting preview.

Odds courtesy of Bovada.

My favorite pick: Tommy Fleetwood +1600

How far has Tommy Fleetwood come since his runner-up finish at the WGC-Mexico Championship a year ago? The Englishman was +20000 at the start of the week before giving eventual champion Dustin Johnson everything he could handle in Fleetwood’s North American coming-out party.

Since then Fleetwood has risen to No. 11 in the world rankings and ranks fifth in greens in regulation, seventh in proximity and T-4 in par-5 scoring. Fleetwood is coming off a fourth-place finish at the Honda Classic and is in prime form to finish the job south of the border after coming so close in 2017.

Solid value: Justin Rose +2200

Fleetwood’s countryman Justin Rose seems to excel no matter where he plays in the world. Rose won the last WGC event in China and has triumphed in Turkey and Indonesia since. Rose also won the gold medal for England at the 2016 Summer Olympics in Rio de Janeiro in golf’s grand return to the Games.

Rose is fresh off a T-8 showing in his last start at Torrey Pines, and while he finished T-38 at this tournament last year, he did lead the field in strokes gained off the tee.

My sleeper pick: Shubhankar Sharma +15000

If you’ve never heard of Shubhankar Sharma before, you’re likely not alone. At the age of 21, the native of India has already won twice on the European Tour this season and owns the top spot in the Race to Dubai standings as a result.

It would be the longest of long shots if Sharma pulls out a win at Chapultepec, but stranger things have happened on the PGA Tour. Besides, there’s a reason he’s already risen to 75th in the world rankings. This kid is the real deal, and he’s someone sharp bettors need to keep an eye on in the coming months.