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Expert PGA Betting Picks: 2018 British Open

Francesco Molinari of Italy hits off the ninth tee during the final round of the Quicken Loans National at TPC Potomac on July 1, 2018 in Potomac, Maryland.

Look, predicting a pre-tournament winner in golf isn’t easy. While it’s true sports bettors can find fantastic value, it’s incredibly frustrating when one of your picks doesn’t even make the cut. That’s why I’m here to help.

Every week I’ll highlight three golfers who have a good chance to win the hardware for the upcoming weekend. This week it’s the third major of the year, the British Open.

For a full breakdown of the tournament, check out my betting preview. For dark horse value, visit my sleeper picks article.

Odds courtesy of Bovada

My favorite pick: Tommy Fleetwood +2200

Fleetwood was one of my top picks to win the U.S. Open, and he nearly stole the tournament thanks to a 63 on the final day that left him as the runner-up behind Brooks Koepka. The event was a coming-out party of sorts for the Englishman, and even though his pre-tournament price has been cut in half since Shinnecock Hills, I’m still expecting big things out of him at Carnoustie.

Fleetwood sits seventh on the PGA Tour in scoring average (69.5), 12th in birdie average (4.12) and 27th in driving accuracy percentage (67.1 percent) while jumping to 10th in the world rankings. The affable Fleetwood has proven he has what it takes to contend in majors, so expect him to build off his strong U.S. Open performance and make a run in Scotland this week.

My second favorite pick: Francesco Molinari +3300

In case you haven’t been paying attention, Molinari is playing some of the best golf on the PGA Tour right now. The Italian Stallion’s past five worldwide starts include a T-2 at the John Deere Classic, a win at the Quicken Loans National (his first triumph on American soil), a T-25 at the U.S. Open, a second-place finish at the Italian Open and another victory at the BMW PGA Championship in England.

The 35-year-old has a 65.5 scoring average in his past eight rounds and is certainly not short in the confidence department. He’s already showcased his ability to win in North America, but with the third major of the season taking place on his home continent, the +3300 price on him looks even more appealing in my eyes.

My third favorite pick: Paul Casey +4000

If you’re wary about backing Casey at the British Open, I understand your concern. Despite finishing in 11th place at the tournament a year ago, Casey has struggled at the event, and at 40 he’s on the back nine of his career without a major championship under his belt.

He’s in excellent form right now, however, as he’s placed 16th or better in four of his last five starts, including a runner-up showing at the Travelers Championship. Casey has also finished in the top 15 in 11 of his last 12 appearances after making the cut. It’s been 26 years since an Englishman won the British Open, but that drought could come to an end this time around.