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Expert PGA Betting Picks: 2018 Houston Open

Daniel Berger Houston Open

Look, predicting a pre-tournament winner in golf isn’t easy. While it’s true sports bettors can find fantastic value, it’s incredibly frustrating when one of your picks doesn’t even make the cut. That’s why I’m here to help.

Every week I’ll highlight three golfers who have a good chance to win the hardware for the upcoming weekend. This week it’s the Houston Open.

For a full breakdown of the tournament, check out my betting preview.

Odds courtesy of Bovada

My favorite pick: Phil Mickelson +1400

Mickelson loves teeing it up in Houston, as this weekend marks his 11th straight appearance at the tournament. In that span, he’s had six top-17 finishes, including a triumph here in 2011. Lefty got the monkey off his back by winning the WGC-Mexico Championship in early March, which ended a four-year winless drought.

Mickelson didn’t reach the knockout stage at last weekend’s WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play, but the event is a unique format, and his poor performance there shouldn’t worry bettors. Including the win in Mexico, he has three other top-6s in his last four stroke-play starts. He can still get the job done in the twilight of his career at the age of 47.

Solid value: Daniel Berger +2200

Berger tends to fly under the radar in the eyes of oddsmakers, but the 24-year-old is the real deal. Berger is in great form right now after posting four top-15s in his past seven starts. Since his debut at the Houston Open in 2015, the American has finished T-25, T-5 and fifth with a scoring average of 69.33.

Berger clearly likes the course, and with the relatively weak field, he should be able to create some separation between himself and the rest of the pack on Sunday if he continues his hot play.

My favorite sleeper: Bud Cauley +8000

Cauley is far from a household name, but sharp golf bettors are well aware of him. The 28-year-old has racked up two top-10s and three top-20s in the 2017-18 season, including a T-14 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational two weeks ago.

Cauley is another player with a great track record at the Houston Open, recording a T-8 in his debut in 2012 and T-16 in 2013. Over the years, a lot of lesser-known golfers have emerged triumphant at this event, and Cauley certainly fits the bill in that regard. He’s not a safe bet by any means, but he’s a steal at +8000 odds.