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Expert PGA Betting Picks: Valero Texas Open

Charley Hoffman plays his shot from the 17th tee during the third round at the Arnold Palmer Invitational Presented By MasterCard at Bay Hill Club and Lodge on March 17, 2018 in Orlando, Florida.

Look, predicting a pre-tournament winner in golf isn’t easy. While it’s true sports bettors can find fantastic value, it’s incredibly frustrating when one of your picks doesn’t even make the cut. That’s why I’m here to help.

Every week I’ll highlight three golfers who have a good chance to win the hardware for the upcoming weekend. This week it’s the Valero Texas Open.

For a full breakdown of the tournament, check out my betting preview.

Odds courtesy of Bovada

My favorite pick: Charley Hoffman +1800

Hoffman is not a star on the PGA Tour, but he’s a solid, consistent performer. There’s no denying he loves playing in San Antonio, either. Hoffman is the all-time earnings leader at the Valero Texas Open and has made the cut in all eight of his appearances at the tournament.

The 41-year-old won here in 2016, finished T-2 in 2011 and T-3 in 2013. He has also logged four other top-15s at TPC San Antonio. He’s in solid form right now thanks to four T-25 showings in his last six starts. With that track record, take the +1800 price and run.

My second favorite pick: Billy Horschel +3000

Streaky players are the definition of hit-or-miss depending on the week in the golfing world, and Horschel fits that description to a T. Horschel heads into the 2018 edition of the Valero Texas Open with the ninth-best odds to go all the way, and he’s fresh off a solid T-5 showing at last week’s RBC Heritage.

Horschel has never won in San Antonio but placed in the top five in 2013, 2015 and 2016. Only six of the top 30 golfers in the world rankings will be teeing it up in the Lone Star State, so the timing could be right for the American to pick up a victory thanks to the relatively weak field.

My third favorite pick: Brendan Steele +3300

The 2011 Valero Texas Open champion, Steele has placed in the top 15 on three occasions since then. The California native is in decent form, entering the event with four top-20s in his past seven starts.

Steele, who won the Safeway Open back in October, sits 13th in the FedExCup points race. TPC San Antonio tends to reward heavy hitters, and Steele ranks 11th on the tour in driving distance (309.4 yards).

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