Look, predicting a pre-tournament Sportsbook in golf isn’t easy. While it’s true sports bettors can find fantastic value, it’s incredibly frustrating when one of your picks doesn’t even make the cut. That’s why I’m here to help.
Every week I’ll highlight three golfers who have a good chance to win the hardware for the upcoming weekend. This week it’s the second World Golf Championships event of the year, the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play.
For a full breakdown of the tournament, check out my betting preview.
Odds courtesy of Sportsbook
My favorite pick: Paul Casey +2200
Casey, a two-time runner-up at the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play, has arguably the best track record at the tournament of any non-Sportsbook. The Englishman is a big advocate of the unique format, telling reporters in Texas “I’ve always enjoyed it. I enjoy match play a lot. I love the volatility of it.”
Casey is coming off an emotional win at Copperhead and has a great shot of emerging from his group of Matthew Fitzpatrick, Kyle Stanley and Russell Henley. He’s due to win one of these sooner rather than later, and that could easily happen this weekend.
Solid value: Alex Noren +3500
Noren has been quietly having a solid, yet unspectacular campaign in 2017-18. The 35-year-old has a few heavy hitters in a group with Tony Finau, Thomas Pieters and Kevin Na, but he’s unquestionably the most talented golfer of the four and should advance out of the group stage.
Noren lost to eventual champion Dustin Johnson in the quarterfinals a year ago but is in better form now than he was back then, sitting fourth in adjusted scoring, eighth in total driving and 15th in birdies-or-better percentage. At +3300 odds, he’s worth a shot.
My sleeper pick: Charley Hoffman +8000
Hoffman finds himself in one of the weakest groups of the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play, competing against Tyrrell Hatton, Brendan Steele and Alexander Levy to kick things off in Austin.
It’s no secret Hoffman loves playing in Texas, and his past success in the Lone Star State makes him an automatic sleeper candidate regardless of the tournament. The California native notched a T-14 showing at Bay Hill and posted a T-20 at Chapultepec. He’ll have his work cut out for him if he can advance through the group stage, but the +10000 price is too good to pass up for a player of his caliber.