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2021 John Deere Classic Prop Bets: Best Betting Props at TPC Deere Run

The best 2021 John Deere Classic prop bets at TPC Deere Run

With our outright selections now placed, we turn to the top finishing markets for the John Deere Classic. It’s always important to search for value in the top finishing markets, so remember to shop around for the best lines as they typically differ from sportsbook to sportsbook.

TPC Deere Run will host the 50th edition of the John Deere Classic. Having been removed from the 2020 PGA Tour season due to COVID-19, players return to the Quad Cities for the first time since 2019. In recent years, not only has this event turned into a bit of a shootout at times, with winning scores touching as low as 27 under, but it’s also been a place on the calendar where long shots have come through at a decent clip.

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Dylan Frittelli is the most recent of the bunch, as the South African and Texas resident broke through in 2019 at 21 under. Other first-timers to punch their ticket to the Open Championship just as the clock struck midnight include Michael Kim, Bryson DeChambeau and Jordan Spieth.

They aren’t the only players who have a special place in their heart reserved for the John Deere Classic. Zach Johnson and Steve Stricker essentially call this place their second home as both seemingly contend or win every year.

John Deere Classic Prop Bets: What to Look For

Boasting one of the weakest fields of the year for a multitude of reasons, this week should provide another opportunity for an unlikely winner. With many of the world’s best taking an early flight across the pond to ready for the Open Championship, world No. 16 Daniel Berger headlines the field.

At +900, I really do like Berger’s chances to capture his second PGA Tour title of the year and head to Royal St. George’s with plenty of momentum. If that does prove to be true, having avoided him in our outright selections, our prop bets will have to carry the load yet again.

In order to do so, our selections have to make birdies and plenty of them. Precise iron players – specifically from 125 to 150 yards – and hot putters are the main focus this week. Not only that, but I believe driving the ball in the fairway can’t be understated. When these shootouts arise, people tend to only focus on two aspects of the game, but it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to understand that approaches from the short grass are a whole lot easier than approach shots from the rough.

It was Hank Lebioda who got the job done for us last week at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, at a decent price to say the least, helping us to continue our winning ways. With this in mind, we will employ the same strategy of perusing a bit further down the oddsboard, as it continues to pay the bills.

At Bovada, tournament favorite Berger is -105 to finish inside the top 10. These odds imply a 51.22 percent probability of him being able to do so. At -105, Berger is the only player in the field whose odds are less than plus-money to finish inside the top 10, providing yet another example of the difference in his quality of play compared to other players.

John Deere Classic Prop Bets & Best Bets: Our Recommendations

Pat Perez (+550 to finish inside the top 10)

I really do like Perez to continue to ride the momentum he has been gathering over the last couple of months. While he has had quality finish after quality finish, we’ll need him to do a bit better as he has only snuck inside the top 10 once in 2021. If he brings the putter that brought him success in Detroit over to Silvis, Illinois, there’s a good chance he does just that.

En route to a top-15 finish last week at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, Perez gained north of eight strokes putting. After one of the best performances of his career, some may be wary to go to Perez, knowing that the flat stick tends to be the most volatile golf club in the bag. However, not I, as my eyes are focused on his iron play, which has been fantastic for the better part of two months now.

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Perez has gained strokes on approach in six of his last seven outings, with the lone outlier being the Travelers Championship where he missed the cut. While he doesn’t have the best John Deere Classic history, I’m willing to give him the benefit of the doubt this week based on his current form. I like Perez, coming in with plenty of confidence, to once again play his way into the weekend mix, making him one of my favorite prop bets for the John Deere Classic.

C.T. Pan (+650 to finish inside the top 10)

TPC Deere Run sticks out as a course that Pan could be competitive on. With success on the likes of Harbour Town Golf Links, Sedgefield Country Club and Colonial Country Club, I don’t think it’s out of the realm of possibility that TPC Deere Run could fit into that mix. At each of those venues, Pan rode a hot putter to a quality outing, most notably his victory at the RBC Heritage in 2019.

With his tee-to-green game showing signs of life, this week could play out similarly. Before the Travelers Championship, where Pan missed the cut, he had made his way to the weekend in four straight starts. During this stretch of golf, he boasted +6.3 Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green at the Wells Fargo Championship and +5.9 SG: Tee-to-Green at the Palmetto Championship.

Neither of those golf courses were places I expected Pan to find success, so a course like TPC Deere Run that should theoretically better suit his game may in fact open the floodgates. This point is driven home when looking at his statistics from his lone John Deere Classic appearance in 2018 when he posted +4.8 SG: Approach. If he is able to replicate that sort of iron performance in 2021, Pan should find his way into the top 10 by week’s end.

Nick Taylor (+850 to finish inside the top 10)

I’ve been tracking Nick Taylor more than anyone should ever be tracking Nick Taylor. While I liked his chances at the Travelers Championship, I was hesitant, and luckily laid off, but this week at the John Deere Classic, I possess no such willpower. The game has been erratic, there’s no question about that, but a simple uptick on and around the green could do wonders for the Canadian.

The ball-striking was fantastic last week at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, gaining +3.6 strokes in said category. The issue was the short game, losing more than three strokes in that area of the bag, something that won’t stack up at the John Deere Classic. Yet still, I am cautiously optimistic about his chances to catch some form on the greens without a moment’s notice.

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It won’t take much, it really won’t. In his 10 career top-10 finishes, Taylor has only gained north of four strokes putting four times. Somewhere in the range of two to three strokes gained should be enough given not only the quality of this field, but also the efficiency with which Taylor can strike the ball. It’s a bit out there, yes, but these plays have proven to be kind to us in the past and will hopefully be once again this week at the John Deere Classic.

Ryan Armour (+850 to finish inside the top 10)

I’ve had a difficult time trying to decipher the state of Armour’s game, so instead of taking the wait-and-see approach, we’re going to wager on an uptick in play this week at the John Deere Classic. Enough pieces of the puzzle are there for Armour to do well at TPC Deere Run, it’s just a matter of him putting them together.

He has gained strokes tee-to-green in four consecutive starts now, despite missing the cut last week at the Rocket Mortgage Classic. At a course where he had previous success, missing the weekend probably surprised a few people. However, the miscues in the Motor City had nothing to do with ball-striking, making me rather optimistic about his prospects for the John Deere Classic.

Armour has been hit-or-miss on and around the greens over the past couple of months. It simply boils down to the fact that if he putts well, he’ll have a chance come the weekend. In his T-8 finish at the Palmetto Championship and his T-26 finish at the AT&T Byron Nelson, he posted +5.8 SG: Putting and +2.4 SG: Putting respectively.

The ball-striking of late is comparable, if not better than in those two outings, meaning a slight improvement on the greens would go a long way. For this reason, Armour to finish inside the top 10 makes for my final best bet for the 2021 John Deere Classic.