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The Match 4: Mickelson-Brady vs DeChambeau-Rodgers Odds & Picks

Mickelson-Brady vs DeChambeau-Rodgers odds for The Match 4 are here.

The fourth edition of The Match is set and Phil Mickelson is right in the middle of it once again.

Mickelson has been a part of every iteration of The Match so far, and he will again partner with Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady. The duo will take on Bryson DeChambeau and Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers in the celebrity golf match.  

DeChambeau and Rodgers are the favorites across sportsbooks, including -150 favorites at Bovada. A -150 line gives us an implied odds probability of 60 percent that DeChambeau and Rodgers will win. 

Mickelson and Brady vs DeChambeau and Rodgers odds are available now at Bovada.

Want to learn more about betting on golf? Check out our How to Bet on Golf page for strategies, info on prop betting and more.

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The Match 4: Broadcast Details
  • Date/Time: July 6, 5:30 p.m. ET
  • Location: Big Sky, Montana
  • Course: Reserve at Moonlight Basin
  • Where to Watch: TNT

Who Will Win The Match 4?

When it comes to celebrity golf events, there’s always money to be made for sports bettors. DeChambeau and Rodgers are favored in the latest odds to win, but be sure to keep checking this page for updated odds.

Odds To Win The Match 4 
Phil Mickelson and Tom Brady+115
Bryson DeChambeau and Aaron Rodgers-150

Odds as of July 5 at Bovada

Rules & Format

The format will be modified alternate shot, meaning the players will each hit a drive, pick the best one to hit from, and alternate shots until the hole is completed. The professionals will tee off from the tips and the football players will hit from the forward tees.

Match play scoring will be in effect, meaning best score wins the hole and tied holes are halved with no carryover. Play continues until one team is up by more holes than are remaining. If they are tied after 18, it’s sudden death.

The event will support multiple charities, including Feeding America.

Mickelson and Brady

Though Brady may be unmatched in the world of football, he is most likely the “worst” golfer in the foursome as he reportedly had an official handicap of 8.1 as of May 2020, according to Golf.com.

And while Mickelson’s win at the PGA Championship back in May was extremely impressive, he had only finished in the top 50 of a tour event four times in 14 events this season prior to the win. At 50 years old and ranked No. 32 in the world (he was at 115 before the PGA Championship win), Mickelson is simply an inferior golfer to Bryson DeChambeau at this point in their careers.

Mickelson currently ranks outside the top 120 on tour this season in most major categories, including driving accuracy percentage (187th), greens in regulation percentage (133rd), holes per eagle (192nd), sand save percentage (156th) and scoring average (162nd).

DeChambeau and Rodgers 

Rodgers came up short against Brady in the NFC championship game, but he definitely has the edge on the golf course. Rodgers reportedly has an official handicap of 4.6, according to USGA, but the veteran QB said in a Golf.com interview that at his best he’s a 3.5.

As for DeChambeau, the current sixth-ranked golfer in the world has enjoyed six top-10 finishes on tour this season, including wins at the U.S. Open in September to start the year and at the Arnold Palmer back in March. DeChambeau has missed just one cut on the year and ranks fourth in the FedExCup standings, second on the money list and, of course, first on tour in average driving distance.

DeChambeau also ranks favorably in several advanced metrics, including holes per eagle (first), birdie average (17th) and scoring average (12th).

Best Bet: DeChambeau/Rodgers

Brady has the Super Bowl win and Mickelson has the PGA Championship, but our money is on Rodgers and DeChambeau for The Match 4 at -150.

If it wasn’t enough to pick Rodgers and DeChambeau based on current ability, once we dig into the Montana mountain course a little further, it becomes even more obvious why books are backing the pair.

Moonlight Basin boasts five par 5s – including three that are more than 600 yards apiece and one over 750 yards (!) – across a vast 8,000-yard course. DeChambeau should have a distinct advantage off the tee with his notoriously powerful swing. Mickelson, meanwhile, ranks 50th on tour in average driving distance.

The Match 4 Props

One of the best ways to bet on celebrity golf tournaments like The Match 4 is through prop bets.

BetOnline Sportsbook has released a ton of great props for Mickelson and Brady vs DeChambeau and Rodgers odds and below you will find some of the best bets on the board as well as a look at all props available at BetOnline Sportsbook and Bovada.

Best Bets

Will DeChambeau hit a 450-yard tee shot?

DeChambeau to hit 450-yard drive?

Odds as of July 5 at BetOnline Sportsbook

Four hundred and fifty yards seems ridiculous, right? As long as DeChambeau is off the tee, he has reportedly never hit a drive over 450 yards in a tour event. So, what makes us think he can do it during The Match 4?

Well, the thin mountain air certainly won’t hurt, but there is a specific hole on the course that could allow for this bet to pay off. The 17th hole is a monstrous 777-yard par 5, but that yardage total is a bit deceiving. There is a severe downslope in the middle of the fairway that allows a well-hit tee shot to roll within 200 yards of the green.

A little bit of math tells us getting to 450 might not be too much of a problem for Bryson in that scenario. At +160, it’s a great bet.

Will either team record an eagle?

Either team to record an eagle

Odds as of July 5 at BetOnline Sportsbook

All indications are that Reserve at Moonlight Basin is an extremely tough course to score on. However, that 777-yard par-5 17th might again be a fountain of wealth for bettors as that fantastic roll off a cliff in the middle of the fairway allows for a wedge or short iron into the green with a subsequent eagle putt.

There are also several long holes on the course that present eagle opportunities given the length off the tee of the players involved. It’s definitely a long-shot bet, but at +500, the price is right.

Closest to the pin on hole 7

Closest to the pin hole 7 

Odds as of July 5 at BetOnline Sportsbook

We are staying away from bets on the par-3 third hole that presents a great challenge to even keep a ball on the green at 206 yards with a massive slope up the left side.

Instead, we like the par-3 seventh as a spot for some potential value. The seventh plays at 180 yards from the tips and is listed as the second-easiest hole on the course. It shouldn’t be much trouble for either DeChambeau (+130) or Mickelson (+130), but we like the value of going with Rodgers (+600) or Brady (+850) as being the closest to the pin on the hole.

There aren’t a lot of spots on the golf course where it’s realistic that one of the quarterbacks could hit a much better shot than the golf pros. This is one of them.

Other Mickelson and Brady vs DeChambeau and Rodgers Props

All four to hit first fairway

Odds as of July 5 at BetOnline Sportsbook

Any player to record a hole-in-one

Odds as of July 5 at BetOnline Sportsbook

Closest to the pin on hole 3

Odds as of July 5 at BetOnline Sportsbook

Leader after hole 1

Odds as of July 5 at BetOnline Sportsbook

Leader through 9 holes

Odds as of July 5 at BetOnline Sportsbook

Longest Drive Brady vs Rodgers
Aaron Rodgers-140
Tom Brady+100

Odds as of July 5 at BetOnline Sportsbook

Mickelson to hit 375-yard drive?

Odds as of July 5 at BetOnline Sportsbook

Team to make first birdie

Odds as of July 5 at BetOnline Sportsbook

What will happen first?
Brooks Koepka interviewed during match-275
DeChambeau to video-bomb interview+185

Odds as of July 5 at BetOnline Sportsbook

when will the match be decided?
Before hole 18-225
On hole 18+250
After playoff+700

Odds as of July 5 at BetOnline Sportsbook

Brooks Koepka to caddy for Mickelson & Brady?


Odds as of July 5 at Bovada