With our outright wagers placed, we now turn our attention to the prop market for our expert selections for the 2022 Mexico Open. It is always important to search for value in the top finishing markets, so remember to shop around for the best lines for your 2022 Mexico Open prop bets as they typically differ from sportsbook to sportsbook.
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The Zurich Classic was almost over before it started as the team of Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele led wire-to-wire. Dominating the best-ball portion of the event, the Ryder Cup and Presidents Cup teammates coasted through the final stretch at TPC Louisiana.
Cantlay had been close to victory in 2022 with playoff losses at the WM Phoenix Open to Scottie Scheffler and at the RBC Heritage to Jordan Spieth. Getting back into the Sportsbook’s circle, he brought his friend Schauffele with him as he was held without a victory on the PGA Tour since the 2019 Sentry Tournament of Champions.
Neither are in the field this week at the Mexico Open as it has been situated in a peculiar spot on the golf calendar. Officially in the full swing of major championship season, players are looking to peak for the PGA Championship next month in Tulsa, Oklahoma.
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While many of the big names will forgo the trip to resort town, Vallarta, Mexico, world No. 2 Jon Rahm will be making his first appearance since the Masters. Listed at -500 to finish inside the top-20 at Sportsbook, the Spaniard will look to find the top-20 of a leaderboard for the first time in stroke-play event since Scottsdale in February.
Our odds calculator gives him an 83.33% chance to do so as he looks to regain some form ahead of a busy summer. Needing to lay $500 to profit $100, we will instead target a mixture of top-20 wagers and missed cut props for our Mexico Open at Vidanta plays.
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2022 Mexico Open at Vidanta Prop Bets & Best Bets
Patrick Reed To Miss The Cut: +190
Patrick Reed has seemingly found some form over the last month as he has not missed a cut on the PGA Tour since the beginning of March. However, having played only three times, I believe his quality outings are misconstrued given the circumstances he was presented.
Reed was in the better wave at THE PLAYERS Championship where a substantial edge was given to those players off the golf course during the worst of the weather.
Factor this together with a WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play where he did not make it out of his group and a made cut at the Masters, where he has always had success, and I am not convinced the Texan is back to his normal self.
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The wide openness of the Norman Signature Course should allow Reed to spray it off-the-tee, but his lack of distance is what concerns me. Outside of putting, the rest of his game has been problematic and even more so with the big stick as he has lost some pop ever since changing equipment.
He missed three consecutive cuts before this mini streak and I expect him to be in for a short week given his lack of power and tee-to-green efficiency.
Abraham Ancer To Miss The Cut: +230
The native Mexican will be a popular selection as he returns to his home country for the first time in competition since the World Wide Technology Championship. One of the higher-ranked players in this field at world No. 20, Ancer should theoretically have a fantastic opportunity to capture his second title on the PGA Tour in front of some home fans.
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However, the 31-year-old has clearly not been himself lately as he continuously backs out of tournaments before the competition begins. Withdrawing at both the Valero Texas Open and the RBC Heritage, Ancer then forced himself to play in the Masters, much like Bryson DeChambeau, and eventually missed the cut.
It is clear the Olympian is not 100% healthy and because of that, I believe he will be in for a short trip home. Vidanta is not necessarily a strong fit for his game either as Ancer has always been a player to thrive on short, accuracy-driven, positional golf courses. Vidanta can be described as the opposite as wayward shots may not be penalized, leaving Ancer in a bit of a predicament in the Mexico Open.
Vincent Whaley Top-20 Finish: +350
Whaley is a player who has historically struggled on venues where accuracy is rewarded. The Norman Signature Course by all accounts is not one of those properties, leading me to believe the 27-year-old is capable of contending in this weak field. He will have his work cut out for him, but if his iron play cooperates, he should find his name on the first or second page of the Mexico Open leaderboard.
He arrives off back-to-back top-30 finishes at the Corales Punta Cana Championship and the Valero Texas Open. At both of those tournaments, Whaley was unimpressive with his scoring clubs, often relying on his short game to pick him up. A short-game specialist, Whaley has taken to these tropical, island tournaments in the past.
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The world No. 297 finished in a tie for seventh-place this past fall in Bermuda and found the top-20 at the Sony Open earlier this year. While both of those courses are considered shorter based on the scorecard yardage, a bigger ballpark such as Vidanta may lead to an even bigger week for the former Georgia Tech Yellow Jacket.
Bill Haas Top-20 Finish: +475
Hass has become a staple in this article, for better or for worse, as he continues to play well, but not quite well enough. He has now connected on seven consecutive cuts dating back to the end of February and perhaps a date alongside his father at the Zurich Classic last week will bring added inspiration for the Mexico Open.
The 39-year-old has often been well-positioned at the 36-hole mark of tournaments, but continues to falter over the weekend. In a field such as the Mexico Open, it is in the realm of possibilities he can thrive on Saturday and Sunday.
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He has been unbelievable on and around-the-green during this stretch and occasionally finds some form with his iron play. The irons have not been the biggest issue as Haas consistently finds trouble off-the-tee, but as we have mentioned previously, Vidanta should be forgiving to those who struggle with the driver in hand.
2022 Mexico Open at Vidanta: What to Look For
2022 has been kind to first-time Sportsbooks on the PGA Tour. Beginning with Lucas Herbert during the fall swing and culminating with Talor Gooch at the RSM Classic, this momentum carried into the new year. Tom Hoge was passed the baton as the California swing saw numerous first-time victors make their way into the Sportsbook’s circle.
From Hoge to Luke List to Scottie Scheffler, I believe the Mexico Open could make way for a similar champion by the end of the week. Outside of Chad Ramey, Tony Finau is the latest Sportsbook in the field coming last summer during the FedEx Cup playoffs. Because of this, the field is wide open despite world No. 2 Jon Rahm being in attendance.
Those likely to break the glass ceiling include Cameron Tringale who remains the all-time money leader among players not to win on the PGA Tour. In addition to Tringale, players such as Aaron Rai, Doug Ghim, and Davis Riley are possible candidates to emerge victoriously.
Riley has been close previously and was a proven Sportsbook on the Korn Ferry Tour in 2021 where he won twice. A decorated junior golfer and amateur, the former Alabama Crimson Tide lost in a playoff to Sam Burns at the Valspar Championship last month.
Fantastic from tee-to-green, the slow paspalum greens at the Norman Signature Course may be to his liking as well as other winless golfers in the field at the Mexico Open.
