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2021 Palmetto Championship Prop Bets Preview & Analysis

Palmetto Championship Prop Bets are up

Now that our outright selections are locked in, we turn our attention to the top finishing markets for the Palmetto Championship. When searching through Palmetto Championship prop bets, it is important to shop around for the best lines as they differ among sportsbooks.

With that being said, let’s turn our attention to Congaree Golf Club. We discussed ad nauseam what to expect in the Palmetto Championship outright article, but I do not mind having to repeat myself. After all, this is only a one-time stop at Congaree Golf Club, so if we are going to do things, we might as well do them right.

Stretching to nearly 7,700 yards, on paper this par 71 will be one of the longest courses that the PGA Tour visits this season. The Tom Fazio design features generous landing areas off the tee, but precision will be required to set up the correct angle for the second shot. On and around the greens may eventually be the difference-maker by week’s end as players, publications and others have discussed the unique challenge Congaree presents as players get closer to the putting surfaces.

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Palmetto Championship Prop Bets: What to Look For

There is always some uncertainty when a new course pops up on the PGA Tour’s schedule, this week even more so as many players have had no past experience on Congaree. Players hailing from the Southeast, such as Lucas Glover, Kevin Kisner and J.T. Poston, have played this course numerous times, but outside of that, it may be hard to make sense of.

Typically, when a week like this occurs, sticking to basic statistical analysis is the best bet. We aren’t going to get too fancy with our modeling and hope the main statistics combined with a few other targeted areas will be enough for the Palmetto Championship.

While you have the likes of Brooks Koepka, Dustin Johnson and Tyrrell Hatton leading the way in the outright betting markets, it may be wise to look a bit further down the oddsboard for this week’s tournament at Congaree Golf Club. At Bovada, Johnson is -175 and Koepka is -140 to finish inside the top 10. These odds imply a 63.64 percent probability for Johnson to finish inside the top 10 and a 58.33 percent probability for Koepka to do the same.

After having back-to-back successful weeks, we’ll keep our prop bet focus on the top-10 and top-20 markets. Just one correct prediction should put us in the black, similar to last week at the Memorial with Max Homa finishing inside the top 10 at +800. Based on the latest Palmetto Championship odds, my favorite place selections are below.

The Palmetto Championship Prop Bets & Best Bets: Our Recommendations

Richy Werenski (+400 to finish inside the top 10)

There really is no rhyme nor reason to this selection. It’s more so a play on the field and the way I see the Palmetto Championship eventually unfolding. When Werenski finds himself in the thick of things, he doesn’t tend to back down from a challenge. While the form isn’t necessarily where we would like it to be, I think this week provides a great opportunity for him to contend.

He’s played well of late on those larger, more premier type of golf courses. I’m looking specifically at his play at Quail Hollow and the Ocean Course. At both of those venues, Werenski gained just about four strokes tee-to-green en route to top-40 finishes.

It’s a big jump from the top 40 to the top 10, but like I’ve been saying, this field warrants this type of selection. If he is able to clean things up just a touch on and around the greens, then I like Werenski to get in contention at the Palmetto Championship.

Vincent Whaley (+400 to finish inside the top 10)

It’s about time that Whaley gives himself a chance to win a tournament come Sunday. He’s seen the weekend plenty and was even generous enough to finish inside the top 20 for us at the Charles Schwab Challenge. At the same odds, I’m willing to wager that he’ll do us one better and he is one of my best bets at the Palmetto Championship to finish inside the top 10.

People have clearly caught on to the cut-making machine that is Whaley. He’s cashed a paycheck in nine consecutive starts, having not missed the weekend since the Waste Management Phoenix Open in early February. He’s been so steady throughout his entire bag that it’s hard to credit a certain aspect of his game for his recent success.

That’s what makes this wager so attractive to me. We just need to see a slight uptick in one area of his game or another and Whaley should be in the mix once the weekend rolls around. With many unknowns, the well-rounded play should suit Congaree. That combined with the fact that Whaley does his best work with his putter on Bermuda grass makes me very optimistic. He finished inside the top 15 at the Puerto Rico Open, a rather similar field once you take out the players under +2000.

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Sepp Straka (+700 to finish inside the top 10)

You look at Straka’s recent results and must think that I have hit my head or something. It’s fair reaction and totally warranted, but the big-hitting Austrian feels a lot closer than the numbers indicate. There have been some horrible rounds of late, don’t get me wrong, including losing 4.0 total strokes gained in Round 1 of the Memorial and losing 4.6 total strokes gained in Round 2 of the Charles Schwab Challenge.

So, that begs the question, what makes this week at the Palmetto Championship different from his last two starts? Simply, I think it’s a great opportunity to buy low on a player whose abilities I believe in. He’s shown glimpses in the past of what he is capable of and at venues not all that different from Congaree.

His last top-10 finish came at the Corales Punta Cana Championship toward the end of March. Since then, there haven’t been many great results to speak of, but I believe that has more to do with course fit. Based on what I’ve read, Straka could be a sneaky player who could fit his game to Congaree and because of this, he makes my list of best bets for the Palmetto Championship.

Henrik Norlander (+650 to finish inside the top 20)

A player of Norlander’s quality at such long odds to only finish inside the top 20 seems like a steal. Yes, his finishes have been rather poor of late and, yes, he is coming off a missed cut last week at the Memorial. Simply looking at his finishes fails to paint the full picture when it comes to Norlander, though, especially given how he finished at Muirfield Village.

After a horrible first round that saw Norlander lose 4.3 SG: Approach, the big Swede bounced back in Round 2 and gained 4.4 strokes ball-striking. The week before in Fort Worth, he gained four strokes on approach en route to a top-50 finish. Clearly his irons are turning the corner and last Thursday was just an outlier on what appears to be a return to his early 2021 form.

With his ball-striking coming around, this bet will lie on the shoulders of his putter. It’s been really bad at times over the past couple of months, sometimes losing upwards of eight strokes on the greens. He does typically putt his best on Bermuda greens and if that’s the case this week, then I like Norlander to finish inside the top 20 as one of my favorite prop bets for the Palmetto Championship.