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PGA Tour Expert Picks: Arnold Palmer Invitational

Francesco Molinari of Italy lines up a putt on the first green during the second round of World Golf Championships-Mexico Championship at Club de Golf Chapultepec on February 22, 2019 in Mexico City, Mexico.

Look, predicting a pre-tournament winner in golf isn’t easy. While it’s true sports bettors can find fantastic value, it’s incredibly frustrating when one of your picks doesn’t even make the cut. That’s why I’m here to help.

Every week I’ll highlight three golfers who have a good chance to win the hardware for the upcoming weekend. This week it’s the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

For a full breakdown of the tournament, check out my betting preview.

Odds courtesy of Bovada

My favorite pick: Justin Rose +1100

With two wins in his last five starts worldwide, Rose is a legitimate threat to win any tournament whenever he’s in the field. The Englishman, who’s been resting the last few weeks, leads the PGA Tour in adjusted scoring and scrambling this season. At 38, he’s shown no signs of slowing down and is clearly still one of the best golfers in the world.

Rose has a great track record at Bay Hill, collecting seven top-15s at the Arnold Palmer Invitational over the years, including a solo third in 2018. He’ll be in the mix on Sunday.

My second favorite pick: Francesco Molinari +3300

It’s no secret Molinari experienced a cooling-off period after winning the 2018 Open Championship, but he’s starting to regain the red-hot form he had last summer. The Italian was third in proximity and first in par-3 scoring in a T-17 finish at the WGC-Mexico Championship. He’s 6-for-6 on cuts made at Bay Hill with three top-10s, so his time for a win here could be coming.

My third favorite pick: Ian Poulter +5000

He’s not going to win any popularity contests, but Poulter has quietly been one of the hottest players on the planet in recent months. In his last four starts, he’s gone T-6, T-3, T-6 and T-3. Based on his recent form alone, he’s severely undervalued at +5000.

Poulter loves playing at Bay Hill as well, making the cut in every event since 2011 with five top-25s in that span. He may not win the whole thing, but he’s an excellent DFS play and should post a high finish at Arnie’s Place.