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PGA Tour Expert Picks: Valero Texas Open

Billy Horschel of the United States plays his shot from the third tee in his match against Bubba Watson of the United States during the second round of the World Golf Championships-Dell Technologies Match Play at Austin Country Club on March 28, 2019 in Austin, Texas

Look, predicting a pre-tournament winner in golf isn’t easy. While it’s true sports bettors can find fantastic value, it’s incredibly frustrating when one of your picks doesn’t even make the cut. That’s why I’m here to help.

Every week I’ll highlight three golfers who have a good chance to win the hardware for the upcoming weekend. This week it’s the Valero Texas Open.

For a full breakdown of the tournament, check out my betting preview.

Odds courtesy of Bovada

My favorite pick: Billy Horschel +2200

Horschel’s ability to consistently play well at the Valero Texas Open is unparalleled. Since debuting in 2011, Horschel is 6-for-8 on cuts made with two thirds, a T-4 and a T-11 (last year). The American has played into the weekend in every tournament he’s participated in over the last eight months.

In his most recent stroke-play start, he tied for 26th at TPC Sawgrass. He hasn’t won this event yet, but based off his stellar track record here, his time is coming.

My second favorite pick: Jason Kokrak +2800

Kokrak is well-rested after his breakthrough runner-up finish at the Valspar Championship two weeks ago, and he hasn’t missed a cut since The Open last July. The 33-year-old posted three top-10 finishes during the four Florida swing events, so he’s in excellent form right now.

Kokrak has made five of seven cuts while cracking the top 15 twice at TPC San Antonio in 2013 and 2015. Even if he doesn’t pull out a win this week, he’s an excellent DFS play.

My third favorite pick: Charley Hoffman +5000

It’s no secret the field for the Valero isn’t exactly strong, and that means Hoffman could have an opportunity to rise up through the ranks and post a high finish on Sunday. Hoffman, who won this tournament in 2016, hasn’t contended in two straight years, yet he has 10 top-25s in 13 starts on the course.

Hoffman’s +5000 price is a direct correlation to his 88th spot in the world rankings, but he’s coming off a T-20 finish in his most recent start in Tampa. At 42 he’s entering the twilight of his career but I think he still has enough left in the tank to return to glory in Texas.