With our outright wagers placed, we now turn our attention to the prop market for our expert selections for the 2022 RBC Canadian Open. It is always important to search for value in the top finishing markets, so remember to shop around for the best lines for your 2022 RBC Canadian Open prop bets as they typically differ from sportsbook to sportsbook.
The Memorial Tournament turned what was a relatively tight leaderboard into a blowout over the weekend. The culprit of this was Billy Horschel, whom we targeted as a nice top-10 play at +450.
Horschel ended up winning the whole thing, but it was reassuring to know down the stretch that if he experienced any sort of hiccup, we would be covered from a betting perspective.
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While Horschel was not a selection of ours to win the tournament, Joaquin Niemann was, and he contended throughout the tournament and had his chances to win.
Although he came up short, it is encouraging to see multiple plays compete week in and week out for a trophy.
Neither Horschel nor Niemann will be in the field at the RBC Canadian Open, but Scottie Scheffler will make up for their absence. The world No. 1 tops the oddsboard at Sportsbook and was last seen in competition losing to Sam Burns in a playoff at the Charles Schwab Challenge.
Sportsbook
Our odds calculator gives Scheffler a 77.78 percent chance to finish inside the top 20 as he is listed at -350 to do so. Needing to lay $350 to profit $100 at those odds, we will instead look to other options in the top-20 prop market for some perceived value at the 2022 RBC Canadian Open.
2022 RBC Canadian Open Prop Bets
Dylan Frittelli Top-20 Finish +320
The South African has quietly become one of the most consistent golfers on the PGA Tour, connecting on nine straight cuts. During this stretch, Frittelli has hit his stride with his iron play, which was previously not the case.
This improvement on approach saw him post +1.26 strokes gained approach per round at TPC Sawgrass and +0.74 strokes gained approach at the Valero Texas Open.
Frittelli is extremely long off the tee and his success in Canada will be predicated on his play both on and around the greens of St. George’s Golf & Country Club.
He has gained strokes with the flat stick the past two weeks and if he is able to do so for a third, he should have no issue playing his way inside the top 20 on the RBC Canadian Open leaderboard.
Alex Smalley Top-20 Finish +350
The PGA Tour rookie has experienced an up-and-down campaign in 2022, but when he brings his best stuff, he often contends to win. Smalley finished runner-up at the Corales Puntacana Championship and in a tie for sixth at the Mexico Open.
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Much like Frittelli, the Duke product has seen an uptick in his approach play even when he has missed cuts. Smalley posted +0.74 strokes gained approach at the Wells Fargo Championship at TPC Potomac, which may hold some correlation to St. George’s Golf & Country Club.
Both courses are relatively short by PGA Tour standards and will likely play on the more difficult end. With the bulk of the holes checking in around 450 yards, Smalley’s mid-iron prowess will propel him to yet another quality outing in his rookie season.
Wyndham Clark Top-20 Finish +450
The 28-year-old struggles mightily with his driving accuracy but I am hoping he will be able to club down and hit long irons and fairway woods off the tee. If that is the case, Clark will enjoy a nice week as the rest of his game looks to be in well enough shape.
He is long enough to take care of the par 5s and also proficient on par 3s – there are five of them on the property and all require mid to long irons. If he does miss a green in regulation, he has both the chipping and putting to bail himself out.
When the RBC Canadian Open visited St. George’s Golf & Country Club in 2010, strong scramblers gravitated to the top of the leaderboard. Clark would fall under this category, but also has the upside from tee to green to make for a relatively safe top-20 bet.
Danny Lee Top-20 Finish +550
The man originally from New Zealand has had a precarious season as he has consistently missed cuts despite his statistics telling a different story.
For example, at the Memorial Tournament last week, Lee posted +0.88 strokes gained off the tee per round and +1.22 strokes gained approach per round but still was unable to play himself into the weekend.
Sportsbook
This type of statistical output and disappointing finish has become a habit for Lee. At the Wells Fargo Championship, he had a very similar week and once again missed the cut.
However, his ball-striking fell off the cliff the following week at the Charles Schwab Challenge and yet he surprisingly finished in a tie for 23rd.
In total, Lee has yet to play up to his potential but has shown that each aspect of his game is in well enough form. If he can piece it all together, he will most definitely finish inside the top 20 at the RBC Canadian Open.
Justin Lower Top-20 Finish +700
The 33-year-old rookie needed some time to find a comfort level on the PGA Tour but once the calendar flipped to the warmer months, so did his form. Lower finished in a tie for 10th at the Zurich Classic, a tie for 31st at the Wells Fargo Championship and a tie for 46th at the AT&T Byron Nelson.
The reason for this sudden shift in the quality of his play is his ball-striking combined with a hot putter. He has now gained strokes off the tee in three straight starts and on approach in two of his last three.
Sportsbook
When you see this type of consistent ball-striking married with gaining three to four strokes on the greens, it is easy to comprehend Lower’s success. If he is able to perform in a manner similar to how he has played over the past month, he will once again put together a nice week on the PGA Tour.
2022 RBC Canadian Open: What To Look For
It is a relatively new golf course for this edition of the RBC Canadian Open and with it comes some unknowns. Not only that, but with the U.S. Open looming large next week, this top-heavy field could be susceptible for a long-shot Sportsbook.
Scheffler will look to capture his second major championship and continue his breakout season next week at the Country Club. Justin Thomas will do the same as despite his victory at the PGA Championship, he still has only one win in the last 15 months.
Cameron Smith, Rory McIlroy and Burns are the remaining top-10 players in the Official World Golf Rankings to fill out this week’s field as they will each attempt to win their first major of the year at the U.S. Open.
