With our outright wagers placed, we now turn to the prop market for our expert selections for the Sportsbook
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There was not a whole lot doing for us at the Hewlett Packard Enterprise Houston Open last week. Poor weekend performances from Wyndham Clark and Jim Herman left us empty-handed as we looked to carry the momentum from Mexico to Texas. It was not meant to be and we now turn our attention to Sea Island, Georgia, for the 2021 RSM Classic.
At Sportsbook, tournament favorite Scottie Scheffler is -140 to finish inside the top 20. According to our odds calculator, this implies a 58.33 percent chance for him to do so this week. Needing to lay $140 to profit $100, we will instead search further down the 2021 RSM Classic betting board in search of some perceived value.
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Current Form Vs Course History?
An age-old debate among golf prognosticators is whether current form or course history is more important when projecting one’s chances for the week. While this becomes most prominent at a course such as Augusta National, I believe the same could be said for the RSM Classic and Sea Island Golf Club.
A large number of PGA Tour professionals call Sea Island home and play out of both the Plantation Course and Seaside Course at Sea Island Golf Club. Looking at those with exquisite history on the coast of Georgia, non-residential players such as Webb Simpson, Kevin Kisner and Charles Howell III come to mind.
We have not seen Simpson all too often this season, having only played three times thus far. Capturing a top-30 finish at the Fortinet Championship before missing the cut at the Shriners Children’s Open, Simpson finished inside the top 15 in his most recent start at the CJ Cup @ Summit.
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Simpson has the best scoring average (67.35) among those players who have made at least five RSM Classic appearances. Boasting two runner-up finishes – most recently to Tyler Duncan in 2019 – and another third-place finish in 2018, Simpson is always a threat at the RSM Classic.
Like Simpson, Kisner has played sparingly as well, only teeing it up during the two-week stretch in Las Vegas. Making his 11th RSM Classic appearance this week, the former Georgia Bulldog not only has a victory to his name, but also a playoff loss last season to Robert Streb. Throw in two additional top-five finishes and another top-10 finish and Kisner does some of his best work at the RSM Classic.
Finally, there is Howell III, who was brought up in Georgia, albeit in Augusta. Making his 12th start in the RSM Classic, the former Oklahoma State Cowboy has his most recent victory here in 2018. With only two missed cuts and three additional top-10 finishes, the 42-year-old has made his last two cuts on the tour and should once again fare well at the RSM Classic.
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RSM Classic: What To Look For
With previous Sportsbooks such as Robert Streb, Tyler Duncan, Charles Howell III and Mackenzie Hughes, anyone is capable of contending this week. Distance, while always advantageous, tends to take the back seat at the RSM Classic as other areas of the bag have the opportunity to come to light.
Instead, we will look to those who are strong par-4 players and capable with their wedges. In what will likely produce a winning score around 20 under, those who are able to effectively convert their scoring opportunities will find their names on the first page of the RSM Classic leaderboard come Sunday.
We will look to shake things up for our 2021 RSM Classic prop bets and mix in a couple plays from the top-10 and top-20 markets.
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RSM Classic Prop Bets & Best Bets: Our Recommendations
Scott Piercy (+850 To Finish Inside The Top 10)
It is hard to ignore Piercy’s recent stretch of play as he narrowly missed out on our outright selections. Finishing in a tie for 19th last week at the Houston Open, the 43-year-old led the field in Strokes Gained: Approach for the tournament. Combine this resurgence of his irons with his typical prowess from around the green and Piercy should find himself with a nice chance at the RSM Classic.
In addition to his strong showing in Houston, the four-time Sportsbook on the PGA Tour boasts these results: T-11 finish at the Fortinet Championship, T-15 finish at the Wyndham Championship, T-3 finish at the Barracuda Championship, T-19 at the Palmetto Championship and T-11 finish at the Wells Fargo Championship.
In the mix a surprisingly large number of times, he now returns to Sea Island for the fourth time in his career. Reaching the weekend in each previous appearance, Piercy found the top 20 in 2014 and 2018. He has been known to struggle with the putter, but having gained strokes on these greens in two of three starts, I have enough confidence that he can do so yet again in this year’s RSM Classic.
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Tyler Duncan (+1000 To Finish Inside The Top 10)
Duncan was in fact featured in our outright selections and I don’t mind adding an insurance policy top-10 wager on him as well. After missing the cut in his first start of the season at the Fortinet Championship, the 2019 RSM Classic Sportsbook has found a different gear.
Rattling off finishes of T-14, T-45 and T-29 in his last three starts, he now returns to the site of his maiden victory. In phenomenal form as well, the former Purdue Boilermaker has gained strokes off the tee in 12 consecutive starts despite his lack of length.
Leaning on his accuracy, the rest of Duncan’s game has followed suit as the irons and short game have looked sharp the past month. We outlined above how players tend to play well at Sea Island over a prolonged period of time. Duncan certainly could fit the same mold as Kisner and Simpson and is a decent putting week away from another nice finish at the RSM Classic.
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Jim Herman (+1000 To Finish Inside The Top 20)
For one reason or another, I can’t seem to shake Herman in the top-20 market. Gaining strokes last week off the tee and on approach, a shorter, accuracy-driven course such as Sea Island Golf Club should suit him much better than Memorial Park. Finishing in a tie for 54th, the 44-year-old held his own, but has an opportunity this week for an even higher finish.
He has now found fairways with more regularity than the field in 12 straight starts and the irons aren’t far behind. While his long-term approach numbers don’t look all too great, he’s finding a high percentage of greens in regulation. In fact, in eight of his last nine tournaments, he has found them at a higher percentage than the field average, signaling a big performance is just around the corner.
Making his 10th RSM Classic appearance, Herman has found the top 20 twice before, in 2015 and 2016. The last two seasons he has been right there as well, finishing in a tie for 35th in 2019 and a tie for 30th in 2020. Clearly comfortable on the Georgia coast, he arrives in much better form ahead of this year’s RSM Classic.
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Davis Thompson (+550 To Finish Inside The Top 20)
Last but not least, I would be remiss to leave Thompson off the card this week as the former University of Georgia standout has made mincemeat of Sea Island in the past. The Sportsbook of the 2019 Jones Cup by a massive nine-stroke margin, Thompson nearly went back to back, falling one stroke shy of Aberg Ludvig, who is also in this week’s field.
Gaining entry into the 2019 RSM Classic due to his win, Thompson finished in a tie for 23rd as an amateur, gaining more than seven strokes tee to green that week. Now a professional, the 22-year-old is set for his second start of the 2021-22 season.
Finishing in a tie for 35th in his first, Thompson once again impressed from tee to green, posting +4.3 Strokes Gained. He has struggled a bit on the greens in his professional career, but a return to Sea Island could be the perfect medicine for the former top amateur in the game.
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