With our outright wagers placed, we now turn to the prop market for our expert selections for the Sportsbook
Looking to get back on track after a poor showing at the Sanderson Farms Championship, we will continue to attack the top-20 betting odds for the Shriners Children’s Open. Nick Hardy nearly came through for us to make it a nice week in Mississippi, but a poor final round derailed any chances we had down the stretch.
Sportsbook
At Sportsbook, tournament favorite Viktor Hovland is -115 to finish inside the top 20. These odds imply a 53.49 percent probability of him being able to do so. Needing to put $115 down to profit $100 on such a wager, I have never found it profitable to target favorites in this market.
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Shriners Children’s Open Prop Bets: What To Look For
Fifteen of the top 30 players in the world are set to tee it up this week at TPC Summerlin for the Shriners Children’s Open, which has seen both favorites and long shots claim victory. Just last year, Martin Laird went off at +25000 and got the better of another long shot in Austin Cook and one of the favorites in Matthew Wolff.
Something similar will likely shake out at this year’s Shriners Children’s Open as well as there are plenty of recent Korn Ferry Tour graduates playing once again this week and still eager to make a name for themselves. At the Sanderson Farms Championship, Cameron Young and many others made their names known, a trend that should continue throughout the entirety of the swing season.
Sportsbook
Playing to par 71, TPC Summerlin has hosted the Shriners Children’s Open for just about 20 years now, becoming the full-fledged venue in the mid-2000s. Players such as Kevin Na, Martin Laird, Bryson DeChambeau and Patrick Cantlay have all found success in the desert.
With this being the case, there isn’t just one way through which to dismantle this Bobby Weed design. Length, while always advantageous, is not necessarily a prerequisite for success as we saw in both of Na’s victories. Instead, we will look for strong iron play and the hopes a hot putter makes its way to Las Vegas for our Shriners Children’s Open best bets.
Shriners Children’s Open Prop Bets & Best Bets: Our Recommendations
Tom Hoge (+500 To Finish Inside The Top 20)
A volatile option, Hoge capped off his 2020-21 PGA Tour season by playing his way into the BMW Championship. Courtesy of a top-five finish at the Northern Trust – gaining seven strokes putting in the process – Hoge found himself inside the top 70 of the FedExCup standings. Unable to extend his season to the Tour Championship, Hoge kicked things off in Napa a few weeks ago.
Finishing in a tie for 36th, the former TCU Horned Frog could have found the top 20 if not for a final round of 3-over 75. Gaining +3.1 Strokes Gained: Approach at the Fortinet Championship, Hoge was up to his similar ways last week at the Sanderson Farms Championship. Posting +4.0 SG: Approach in only two rounds, he was unable to make the weekend in Mississippi due to an uncooperative putter.
However, perhaps his fortunes can change in Las Vegas as Hoge has gained strokes on the field with the flat stick in two of his last three appearances at TPC Summerlin. Making his sixth showing in the Shriners Children’s Open, he has a scoring average of 69.89 and a top-10 finish in 2017.
Ryan Moore (+500 To Finish Inside The Top 20)
There are plenty of narratives this week with one of the more prominent being Las Vegas residency. Between Kevin Na, Scott Piercy, Charley Hoffman and Ryan Moore, a number of PGA Tour professionals have made their full-time homes in Las Vegas. As such, they have grown accustomed to desert golf, so to speak, and typically put together strong showings in the Shriners Children’s Open.
While I do like all of their chances this week, it is Moore who I will pull the trigger on for a top-20 finish. After narrowly missing out on a victory at the John Deere Classic, falling just short of Lucas Glover, the 38-year-old has since struggled. However, those troubles have nothing to do with his tee-to-green play as Moore has gained strokes to the field in said category in five consecutive starts now.
What’s Stopped Moore Before?
The issues arise on the greens as he lost strokes with his putter in each missed cut. Flipping the script in Jackson, Mississippi, by posting +1.5 SG: Putting, Moore captured a top-40 finish that I believe will be parlayed into a top-20 finish at TPC Summerlin. Possessing a career scoring average of 68.77 on the Bobby Weed design, he has fond memories of the Shriners Children’s Open.
Winning here in 2012, Moore shot 24 under to finish one stroke clear of Brendon De Jonge. Making his 15th career appearance at TPC Summerlin this week, he comes in not only with said victory, but also two top-10 finishes, three top-20 finishes, and only two missed cuts, making him one of our best bets for the Shriners Children’s Open.
Sportsbook
Jimmy Walker (+750 To Finish Inside The Top 20)
One of my favorite prop bets for the Shriners Children’s Open will reside with Walker, who is slowly but surely finding some form. After a brutal start to his 2020-21 PGA Tour season, he connected on weekend appearances in nine of 13 starts. With two of those missed cuts occurring in the major championships, he fared decent enough at your run-of-the-mill PGA Tour stop.
Capping off his efforts with a tie for 11th at the 3M Open – which happens to take place on a TPC course – the 2016 PGA Champion posted +5.5 SG: Tee-to-Green. Since following up this effort with his season debut last week at the Country Club of Jackson, the 42-year-old began the new campaign with a strong effort.
Walker: Coming In Hot
Finishing in a tie for 45th, Walker found himself inside the top 20 for the majority of the weekend before being lapped due to a final round of even-par 72. In the process, the six-time PGA Tour Sportsbook posted +3.9 SG: Approach and +3.5 SG: Putting, a lethal combination that should be up to the TPC Summerlin test.
Making his 11th Shriners Children’s Open appearance, Walker has very much had a mixed bag in Las Vegas. With six missed cuts, the best of Walker’s efforts came just about a decade ago. From 2012 to 2015, he recorded finishes of 10th, 12th, fourth and 50th. Based on his play from the Sanderson Farms, I’ll chance he can put together a similar performance again and sneak his way into the top 20 by the end of the week.
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William McGirt (+1000 To Finish Inside The Top 20)
Don’t look now, but McGirt appears to be finding some form ahead of the Shriners Children’s Open. Struggling when he did tee it up on the PGA Tour during the 2020-21 season, the 42-year-old failed to capture a top-50 finish. Missing the weekend in eight of his 11 total outings, the sense and mental freshness of a new season was a welcomed sight for McGirt.
Missing the cut at the Fortinet Championship, not all was bad for the American in Napa. He fell just two strokes short of the weekend and gained strokes tee to green for the first time since mid-April in Hilton Head. Carrying the momentum to the Sanderson Farms Championship, the 2016 Memorial Sportsbook captured his first top-20 finish on the PGA Tour in three years.
Perhaps missing on McGirt’s peak return to form, I am willing to chance he keeps the steady play going into Las Vegas. Posting +5.2 SG: Tee-to-Green and +1.6 SG: Putting, TPC Summerlin should be ripe for his picking. Making his eighth appearance in the Shriners Children’s Open, he not only holds a scoring average of 68.67, but also five top-35 finishes, including a top-10 finish in his last appearance in 2018.
