With our outright wagers placed, we now turn our attention to the prop market for our expert selections for the 2022 Sony Open. It’s always important to search for value in the top finishing markets, so remember to shop around for the best lines for your 2022 Sony Open prop bets as they typically differ from sportsbook to sportsbook.
While there was some disappointment in our selections last week at the Sentry Tournament of Champions, Patrick Cantlay came through for us for a top-10 finish. After getting one across the finish line, we will look to once again do so with the prices for the 2022 Sony Open far more favorable as the first full-field event of the year.
At Sportsbook, tournament favorite Cameron Smith is +110 to finish inside the top 10. According to our odds calculator, this implies a 47.62 percent chance he will do so this week. Needing to lay $100 to profit $110, we will instead look further down the Sony Open betting board in search of some perceived value.
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Sony Open: What To Look For
With 144 players set to play in the 2022 Sony Open, it is the first event to feature a cut in the new year. However, there are 21 players that present a clear advantage when looking at those who participated in last week’s Sentry Tournament of Champions. Out of the 38 who played just an island away, 24 were originally set to make the trip from Maui to Honolulu, but Bryson DeChambeau, Lucas Herbert and Garrick Higgo decided to pull out of the tournament earlier in the week.
For whatever reason, whether it is shaking off the rust and having a few rounds under your belt, those who play at the Plantation Course at Kapalua have historically fared well at Waialae Country Club. Kevin Na, Matt Kuchar, Patton Kizzire and Justin Thomas all played the week before their eventual Sony Open victory. The lone exception over the last half-decade was Cameron Smith’s victory in 2020, but in essence that week was a wash as the winning score only touched 11 under and inclement weather was ever present, making it a bit of an outlier result.
You will see this theory put to the test as we will be sure to target a couple of these players in our 2022 Sony Open prop bets. While the margins were thin at the Sentry Tournament of Champions, we should have some better prices to attack with the full field for the Sony Open.
Sony Open Prop Bets & Best Bets: Our Recommendations
Kyoung-Hoon Lee (+700 to finish inside the top 10)
Last year was a memorable one for K.H. Lee as he grabbed his first career victory on the PGA Tour at the AT&T Byron Nelson. However, there were a number of great moments for the South Korean, namely the Waste Management Phoenix Open where he nearly caught Brooks Koepka in the desert. Finishing runner-up to the four-time major champion, Lee proved his game is capable of stacking up with some of the best players in the world.
While he fell flat at the Sentry Tournament of Champions, the Plantation Course at Kapalua was never going to be a good fit, especially playing it for the first time, as the Coore and Crenshaw design has had a way of making debutants look silly.
The short game lacked a bit as he finished in a tie for 33rd, but he should find better success this week in his fourth appearance at Waialae CC. He struggled in the beginning, missing the first two cuts of his career. However, he showed last season exactly what he can do in Honolulu, finishing in a tie for 19th.
With a scoring average of 68.88 in his career at this tight, tree-lined par 70, Lee should be able to improve on that this week. Now all the way up to No. 64 in the official world golf rankings, a top-10 play seems like a viable option to start our 2022 Sony Open prop bets.
Tom Hoge (+800 to finish inside the top 10)
Switching gears for a moment, we are getting a nice top-10 price for Tom Hoge, a player who impressed for most of the fall. The former TCU Horned Frog played eight times in the swing season and finished his 2021 on a high note in Sea Island, collecting a top-five finish in the RSM Classic. Before then, the trend was clear as his iron play was exquisite, consistently gaining strokes on the field on approach.
Other notable finishes included top-20 outings at the Shriners Children’s Open and the Zozo Championship. It’s hard to say whether he will be able to maintain that momentum after a month off due to the PGA Tour break, but I am willing to suggest a course such as Waialae CC should allow such.
This will be his seventh Sony Open appearance and is a place where he has found some success before. Despite missing three cuts, when Hoge does make it to the weekend, he tends to be some sort of factor, finishing on the podium in 2018 and in a tie for 12th in 2020. Given those results, I am OK chancing he can put together a similar type of start this week.
John Huh (+900 to finish inside the top 10)
John Huh is another player I have been keeping my eye on, namely at the World Wide Technology Championship where he cashed a nice top-20 ticket for us. After following up that start with another quality result at the RSM Classic, at another venue where accuracy off the tee and strong Bermuda putting comes through, Huh is surely worthy of consideration this week.
While he is a bit more volatile than most, his upside is undeniable. Boasting a great history at Colonial Country Club, a course which provides plenty of crossover success, Huh has been unable to translate it to Waialae CC yet. Making his ninth start this week, the American has a scoring average of 68.88, meaning he is close to coming through in a big way. He made six consecutive cuts here at one point, so there is a clear comfort level – it will just be a matter of getting a touch more comfortable to finally sneak inside the top 10.
Lucas Glover (+1200 to finish inside the top 10)
Coming back to the Kapalua to Honolulu theory, Lucas Glover was a participant in the Sentry Tournament of Champions. The former Clemson Tiger finished in a tie for 35th and looked a bit rusty to begin his 2022, but he was able to get four rounds under his belt, which should help him out this week at Waialae CC.
Despite the poor finish, Glover did post positive metrics in SG: Off-the-Tee and SG: Around-the-Green, just lacking with the irons and the putter. However, in his previous start at the RSM Classic, he actually gained a few strokes on the Bermuda grass greens of Sea Island.
So simply put, I expect the 42-year-old’s chances to fall on the face of his iron play, which was terrific for the most part in 2021. In fact, it was great to begin the 2021-22 season before hitting a bit of a lull in November. I expect some improvement in this department from Glover and if that’s the case, he should be able to threaten the top 10 at the 2022 Sony Open.
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