The Players Championship Odds & Picks: Scheffler Leads A Stacked Field At Sawgrass

It’s not a major, but thanks to its stacked field and familiar venue, it certainly scratches that itch in the weeks leading up to the Masters. The Players Championship welcomes the top 11 players in the world and 48 of the top 50 to TPC Sawgrass, led by No. 1 and +400 odds favorite at Sportsbook, Scottie Scheffler.

Scheffler is the two-time defending champion of the event, and he hasn’t carded a score worse than 69 in Ponte Vedra Beach, Fla., since 2022. But Scheffler was also defending champ at last week’s Arnold Palmer Invitational, where he struggled with his putting—he didn’t hole anything beyond 5 feet in the final round, according to PGATour.com—and finished T11, leaving him still searching for his first victory of 2025.

The Players Championship Odds

Odds as of March 11 at Sportsbook

Five other past champions—Justin Thomas, Rory McIlroy, Si-Woo Kim, Jason Day and Ricky Fowler—are also in the field, but of that group only McIlroy and JT are ranked in the top 10. Of players with more than one career start at TPC Sawgrass, Christiaan Bezuidenhout owns the best career finish—of 22.3, which shows you how capricious fates on the 7,352-yard layout can be. Even Scheffler missed the cut once before his current run of success there began. 

The Players Championship Picks

Sepp Straka to Win (+5500) at Sportsbook

Tremendous value on a competitor who’s playing better golf than just about anyone else in the world. Straka has been T5 and T7 in his past two PGA Tour Signature Events, and he’s finished 15th or better in the past four tournaments in which he’s made the cut. The Austrian by way of the University of Georgia has flirted with contention at The Players, finishing T16 last year and T9 two seasons before that, but clearly seems primed to take the next step on a bigger stage.

Scottie Scheffler Top American (+280) at Sportsbook

This was the time of year when Scheffler ignited his historic 2024 run, winning the Palmer and The Players back to back. Outside of a poor final round at Phoenix, he’s been more than competitive in all of his starts this far—though he’s not yet made a serious challenge to win. That could clearly change this week, and the nationality prop makes for a better hedge than a top-five finish (-110), which simple doesn’t offer enough value. 

Michael Kim Top-10 Finish (+650) at Sportsbook

Long a star on social media, the likeable Kim is now looking like one on the golf course, too, with five straight finishes of T13 or better. Two of those have come in Signature Events, including his solo fourth in last week’s Arnold Palmer Invitational. While Kim’s track record in Ponte Vedra isn’t very good—he’s missed the cut in three of four career starts—just one of those has come since 2019, and he’s clearly a different player now. Ten of his last 12 PGA Tour rounds have been in the 60s.

The Players Championship Betting Tips

Russell Henley (+3500), who vaulted into the top 10 with his victory last week in the Arnold Palmer, has now finished T6 or better in three of his past four starts. His track record at TPC Sawgrass is a spotty one, though, with six missed cuts in 11 appearances and a best finish of T13 in 2022. Thomas (+2000) took a step back at Bay Hill after consecutive top-10s, and he hasn’t finished better than T33 at Sawgrass since winning there in 2021.

Much more consistent on the north Florida layout has been Hideki Matsuyama (+3300), who’s finished T6 and solo fifth the past two seasons. McIlroy (+1000) has been first, T17 and T15 in his three PGA Tour starts so far in 2025, all of them Signature Events, though he’s managed just two rounds in the 60s at Sawgrass since his last victory there in 2019. It’s a similar story for Collin Morikawa (+1200)—three excellent starts so far this season, but an average finish of 49th over four previous Players appearances.

Shane Lowry (+4000) owns a career-best finish of eighth at The Players, and he’s been second and seventh in Signature Events so far this season. Ludvig Aberg (+1600), who owns a Signature Event victory in 2025, was eighth last year in his Sawgrass debut, carding three 67s in the process. And such a stacked field doesn’t tend to leave much room for surprises—since Tiger Woods’ last win there in 2013, nine of 11 winners have also been major champions, with Si Woo Kim and Fowler as the exceptions.

The Players Championship Betting Handles

Our friends over at Sportsbook have released some of the betting handles data that they are receiving for the 2025 Players Championship. As of Tuesday, March 11, Scottie Scheffler is the most bet on golfer and has the most money behind him. That said, the biggest liability is Ludvig Aberg at +1600.

Players Championship Highest Betting Ticket Percentages

Player Championship Hghest Handle Percentages

Players Championship Biggest Liabilities