It may not be one of the PGA Tour’s Signature Events, but it’s always a big deal when Scottie Scheffler tees it up. Fresh off a top-10 finish in his 2025 debut at Pebble Beach, the world No. 1 opened as the commanding +280 odds favorite at Sportsbook to win this week’s WM Phoenix Open—a tournament he’s won twice previously.
PGA Tour Waste Management Open Odds
| Golfer | Odds |
|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler | +280 |
| Justin Thomas | +1200 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | +1600 |
| Sungjae Im | +2200 |
| Sam Burns | +2500 |
| Tom Kim | +3300 |
| Corey Conners | +4500 |
| Sahith Theegala | +4500 |
| Sepp Straka | +4500 |
| Byeong Hun An | +4500 |
| Rasmus Hojgaard | +5500 |
Odds as of Feb. 4 at Sportsbook
The raucous event at TPC Scottsdale is scheduled to feature eight of the top 20 players in the world rankings, with Scheffler joined by Hideki Matsuyama (+1600), Wyndham Clark (+7000), Justin Thomas (+1200), Sepp Straka (+4500), Robert MacIntyre (+6000), Sahith Theegala (+4500) and Billy Horschel (+7500). The defending champion is Nick Taylor (+6500), who won last year in a playoff and claimed the Sony Open in Hawaii earlier this season.
But the spotlight is clearly on Scheffler, whose odds of winning dwarf that of the No. 2 player on the board—Justin Thomas at +1200. Scheffler over the past four seasons has gone T3-Win-Win-T7 in Scottsdale, shooting just one round higher than 70 in the process. And with clear, near-windless conditions in the forecast, expect target golf on a layout where Taylor last year became the fourth player to tie the course record of 60.
PGA Tour Waste Management Open Best Bets
Scottie Scheffler To Win (+280) at Sportsbook
Who else? Scheffler made his 2025 debut, and his first start since having surgery on his right palm, in cold and blustery conditions at Pebble Beach—and shook off the rust with a 15-under T9. Now it’s on to Scottsdale, where conditions will be ideal for scoring, and nobody is better at scoring than Scheffler. The risk is that the course plays so easily, everyone goes crazy low—which happened last year when Scheffler shot four 66s and still missed the playoff by two shots. Still, it's a risk worth taking.
Nick Taylor Top-5 Finish (+1100) at Sportsbook
That’s pretty great value for a golfer who’s figured out TPC Scottsdale over the past two years—he was the runner-up to Scheffler in 2023, and then beat Charley Hoffman in a playoff to claim the title last season. Over his last eight rounds in Phoenix, his average score is 66.25, and he hasn’t posted anything higher than a 70. The Canadian has also enjoyed a nice 2025 so far, winning the Sony Open in Hawaii (the first full-field event of the year) and finishing T12 at the American Express.
Andrew Novak Top-10 Finish (+600) at Sportsbook
The under-the-radar South Carolinian is enjoying a very nice start to his 2025 season—the last two weeks he’s been third at Torrey Pines and T13 at Pebble Beach, and he’s already made nearly half as much money as he did in 26 starts last year. Novak made his Phoenix Open debut last season, and after three rounds in the 60s was on the fringes of contention until he closed with a 72. After two windswept weeks on the Pacific coast, we know Novak can grind—now in the bright sunlight of Phoenix, it’s time to see how low he can go.
PGA Tour Waste Management Open Betting Tips
Of players who have made more than two starts at Phoenix, the best career average finish belongs to Theegala (15.7) thanks to a solo fifth last season and a T3 in 2022. Outside of Scheffler, the best active streak at Scottsdale belongs to Thomas, who’s been 13th or better in six straight years. JT has shown some signs of life this year with a runner-up at the AMEX and an opening 66 at Pebble Beach, and he’s still searching for his first victory since the PGA Championship in 2022.
While he’s never played well at the Phoenix Open (he has a 66th and two MCs in three starts) the best current run of form among players in the field belongs to Sepp Straka, who followed up his victory in the AMEX with a T7 at Pebble last week. The tireless Sungjae Im, who owns a solo third and a T4 already this season, has two career Phoenix finishes of T7 or better. Jordan Spieth, who returned at Pebble from a long layoff due to wrist surgery, owns five Phoenix top-10s including T6 in each of the past two years.
And there should be value options in a full-field event where Hoffman, Maverick McNealy, Kurt Kitayama and Cameron Young all finished in the top 10 last season. Sam Stevens heads to the desert on the heels of a solo second and T17 over the past two weeks. Tom Kim, T7 last week on the Monterey Peninsula, was T17 last season in his second Phoenix start. And hopefully for sports bettors and golfers alike, the flu bug that’s made its way through the locker room the past two weeks—feel better, Ludvig Aberg—has burned itself out.
