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Breeders’ Cup Friday: Live Long Shots

Alligator Alley Breeders' Cup Mike Dempsey Live Long Shot picks

The Breeders’ Cup at Santa Anita gets underway Friday with five championship races restricted to two-year-olds, the future stars of the sport.

The marquee event of the day is the $2-million Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) that will produce the early betting favorite for next spring’s Kentucky Derby (G1).

There are nine more Breeders’ Cup races coming up on Saturday, including the $6-million Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1), one of the richest races in the world.

Let’s take a look at a few contenders on Friday’s card that can be in the hunt at generous prices. (All odds are provided by Bovada).

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint

Alligator Alley (+1200) lost to contender A’Ali last time out where he was off awkwardly and did not have enough punch late after stalking the early pace as the even-money favorite in the Flying Childers (G2) at Doncaster. He won an ungraded stake two back at York going five furlongs over good to firm ground. Lasix and blinkers are added and he is going to be a decent price in this spot. He is capable of better than we saw out of him last out.

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies

Lazy Daisy (+1400) broke her maiden in her debut and then was fourth behind a couple of these foes in her stakes debut in a fourth in the Del Mar Debutante (G1). She then stretched out to two turns for the first time last out in the Pocahontas (G2) at Churchill Downs and she produced a career top in a sharp win, drawing away late to win by 1 1/4 lengths. The runner-up His Glory came back to beat Alw-1 optional claimers on October 27 at Churchill Downs. The Doug O’Neill trainee looks headed in the right direction and she should be able to get a good trip sitting just off the pace. She looks like a good value if she goes off near her 12-1 morning line.

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf

Crystalle (+1000) exits a runner-up finish in the Miss Grillo (G2), a race that has produced five of the 11 winners of this race. The U.S. holds a 9-2 advantage over the Euro shippers here. She was too far back early last out, racing last early behind a moderate pace and she came running late when fanned out very wide to finish 2 3/4 lengths behind the inner Selflessly. Two back she rallied to get up and win the P.G. Johnson at Saratoga in her stakes debut. The runner-up in that race was Sweet Melania, who came back to win the Jessamine (G2) at Keeneland on good ground next out. The filly looks as if she is going to see some pace in front of her and she should be flying late. Jockey Joel Rosario sticks here for trainer John Kimmel, who won his first Breeders’ Cup race with Bar of Gold in the 2017 Filly & Mare Sprint.

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile

Scabbard (+650) was second in the Iroquois and was only beaten 1 3/4 lengths. The colt stalked the early pace while saving ground, had to steady at the half-mile pole and was making up ground late while no real threat to the winner. He was better than five lengths clear of the rest of the field. He ran second in the Saratoga Special (G2) two back in his first start against winners, racing under the name Noose. He looks capable of moving forward in his second route. He is by More Than Ready out of a stakes-placed Gone West mare. He is in good hands with the Eddie Kenneally barn that is 0-for-5 with his Breeders' Cup starters. He picks up Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith, which is a plus, and should be a decent price.

Handicapper Michael Dempsey will be covering the Breeders’ Cup for Odds Shark and his full card reports with selections, analysis, fair odds line and wagering recommendations for major tracks can be found daily at turfnsport.com.