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Breeders’ Cup Friday: Live Long Shots

Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint Mike Dempsey Live Long Shot picks

The Breeders’ Cup kicks off on Friday at Churchill Downs with five juvenile championship races, all with large fields and great betting opportunities.

There are several solid betting favorites including Bellafina in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1) and Newspaperofrecord in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (G1). However, there are plenty of contenders in these large fields that are going to offer great betting value.

Here is one live long shot in each of Friday’s races that should be included in any exotic wagers:

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint

Chelsea Cloisters (+1400 at Bovada) is one of four in here sent out by the Wesley Ward barn. The filly broke outward coming out of the gate in the Indian Summer, tracked the early pace, had the lead in the stretch and just missed when drifting outward, coming up a neck short. I like the jock switch here to Tyler Gaffalione. This gal handled good to soft turf overseas, running a good second in the Prix du Bois (G3) at Deauville.

She showed good speed on her return in the Bolton Landing where she set the early fractions and could not go with the winner in a runner-up finish. She has looked good this week and with the jock switch I expect to see this gal right up front early.

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf

The Mackem Bullet (+1200) has come out on the wrong ends of photos in her last two starts to the talented Aiden O’Brien-trained Fairyland. She missed by a nose two back in the Lowther Stakes (G2) at York and last out was beaten a neck in the Cheverly Park Stakes (G1) over good to firm ground at Newmarket.

She beat So Perfect last out for the place spot and that foe goes in today’s Juvenile Turf Sprint. Her Timeform rating from her last outing is the highest among the Euro invaders. Decent value here if she goes off near her +1500 morning line.

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies

Sippican Harbor (+600) is making her first start since winning the Spinaway (G1) on Sept. 1. She rallied from last to first to win by two lengths at +1600 and then was flattered when Restless Rider came back to win the Alcibiades (G1) while third Cassie’s Dream ran third in the Frizette (G1) next out. In addition, Reflect was second in the Alcibiades and seventh-place finisher Chasing Yesterday came back to win the Anoakia at Santa Anita in her next outing.

Not having a route race under her belt is a knock but it looks as if she is going to be a generous price. She is +1200 on the morning line but down to +600 at Bovada, and that price may rise.

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf

Arthur Kitt (+1000) was a disappointing fifth in the Royal Lodge Stakes (G2) at Newmarket last out, beaten six lengths over good to firm ground. He won his first two starts and then ran second to the talented Too Darn Hot in the Solario Stakes (G3) at Sandown Park. The winner came back to win the Champagne Stakes (G2) at Doncaster and then won the Darley Dewhurst Stakes (G1) in his most recent outing, a race that has produced three winners of this race.

His trainer Thomas Dascombe is 0-for-2 in the Breeders’ Cup with a fifth- and an 11th-place finish. The colt has shown he can handle ground with some give to it and is going to be a generous price. He is taking some action overseas, between +1000 and +1200.

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile

Standard Deviation (+1800) is Chad Brown’s second runner in here and is going to be a decent price. The colt was a smart-looking maiden winner in his debut at seven furlongs over a wet track in a race taken off the turf. He came back in the Breeders’ Futurity where Knicks Go was able to set moderate early fractions and take the field gate to wire at +7000.

He was outrun early while four wide, was fanned out seven wide making a good rally and flattened out late, checking in third while beaten 6 1/4 lengths. He will appreciate the longer stretch here. He comes back with blinkers added, the barn 31 percent winners (with a +ROI) when adding the hood for the first time.

The colt was a $450,000 Keeneland purchase and will appreciate it if the track is still wet. He is by Curlin out of an A.P. Indy mare that has dropped three other winners. Brown won this race last year with Good Magic and has a good shot of winning back to back. The Breeders’ Futurity has produced two of the last five Juvenile winners here at Churchill Downs.

Handicapper Michael Dempsey will be covering the Breeders’ Cup for OddsShark and his full card reports with selections, analysis, fair odds line and wagering recommendations for major tracks can be found daily at turfnsport.com.

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