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The 2025 Papal Election Betting Odds & Predictions | Conclave Tracker
Following the death of Pope Francis on April 21, 2025, the Catholic Church now turns its attention to the papal conclave that will determine his successor. While the process of electing a new pope is deeply rooted in centuries-old tradition, the modern era brings global interest, including from bettors and casual observers in North America seeking to understand how the next pontiff will be chosen, who the leading candidates are, and what the odds look like.
Latest Pope Betting Odds & Predictions
While betting on papal succession may seem unusual, it has gained popularity recently, mainly through international sportsbooks and regulated prediction markets.
Here are the latest odds according to Kalshi (US), Bet365 (Canada, excluding Ontario), and Sports Interaction (ON). The top candidates vary from one betting market to the next.
Where Can You Place Bets on the Next Pope?
USA Pope Predictions
Traditional sportsbooks such as BetMGM, FanDuel, and Caesars Sportsbook do not offer betting markets on papal elections in the United States due to regulatory restrictions.
However, Americans can legally participate via Kalshi, a US-based prediction market regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Kalshi operates like a stock exchange, where users buy and sell contracts based on potential outcomes. Instead of offering fixed odds like a sportsbook, Kalshi allows users to buy and sell contracts based on whether an event will occur.
Prediction markets don't have a traditional odds format, but you can treat the price as the implied win probability, just like a sportsbook does internally. If you want to compare Kalshi prices to American odds, use the formula: American Odds = (1/price) -1, then multiply by 100
Kalshi Pope Prediction Market
May 7, 2025 (1:35 pm EST)—Things have been heating up for the past few days on the Kalshi site. While Pietro Parolin remains the favorite, other candidates like Pierbattista Pizzaballa have emerged as contenders. Matteo Zuppi, on the other hand, shows a significant drop in implied probability today, having dropped from 19% yesterday to 10% right now.
It's important to note that these projected stats or favorability don't reflect the actual deliberations of the Conclave and the final decision.
| CANDIDATE | PRIZE | IMPLIED PROBABILITY |
|---|---|---|
| Pietro Parolin (Italy) | $0.31 | 31% (⏶ 5) |
| Luis Antonio Tagle (Philippines) | $0.21 | 21% (⏷ 1) |
| Pierbattista Pizzaballa (Italy) | $0.10 | 10% (⏶ 1) |
| Matteo Zuppi (Italy) | $0.10 | 10% (⏷ 9) |
| Peter Turkson (Ghana) | $0.08 | 8% (⏶ 1) |
| Peter Erdo (Hungary) | $0.08 | 8% (⏶ 1) |
| Jean-Marc Aveline (France) | $0.05 | 5% (⏵) |
| Mario Grech (Malta) | $0.02 | 2% (⏶ 1) |
| Fridolin Ambongo (DR Congo) | $0.02 | 2% (⏵) |
| Anders Arbolius (Sweden) | $0.01 | 1% |
Canada Pope Betting Odds
Outside the US, betting platforms such as Bet365 have opened robust markets on the conclave, especially in countries like the UK and Canada.
| CANDIDATE | ODDS | IMPLIED PROBABILITY |
|---|---|---|
| Pietro Parolin (Italy) | +225 | 30.8% |
| Luis Antonio Tagle (Philippines) | +300 | 25.0% |
| Matteo Zuppi (Italy) | +450 | 18.2% |
| Pierbattista Pizzaballa (Italy) | +500 | 16.7% |
| Peter Turkson (Ghana) | +600 | 15.4% |
| Peter Erdo (Hungary) | +750 | 11.8% |
| Robert Sarah (Guinea) | +1200 | 7.7% |
| Mario Grech (Malta) | +2000 | 4.8% |
Note: These figures are based on bet365 betting odds as of May 7, 2025, and are subject to change.
Ontario Betting Odds
Ontario-based users can access these markets via local licensed operators like Sports Interaction.
| CANDIDATE | ODDS | IMPLIED PROBABILITY |
|---|---|---|
| Pietro Parolin (Italy) | +225 | 30.8% |
| Luis Antonio Tagle (Philippines) | +300 | 25.0% |
| Matteo Zuppi (Italy) | +600 | 14.3% |
| Peter Turkson (Ghana) | +700 | 12.5% |
| Pierbattista Pizzaballa (Italy) | +800 | 11.1% |
| Peter Erdo (Hungary) | +1000 | 9.1% |
| Robert Sarah (Guinea) | +1600 | 5.9% |
| Fridolin Ambongo Besungu (DR Congo) | +2000 | 4.8% |
| Jean-Marc Aveline (France) | +2000 | 4.8% |
| Raymond Leo Burke (USA) | +3300 | 2.9% |
Note: These figures are based on Sports Interaction betting odds as of May 7, 2025, and are subject to change.
Who Are the Frontrunners to Become Pope?
While any baptized Catholic male is technically eligible to be elected pope, in practice, the selection is made from among the cardinals. Several high-profile figures are widely viewed as frontrunners.
Pope Candidates With The Highest Likelihood of Becoming The Next Pope
One of these high-profile Cardinals will likely become the next Pope of the Catholic Church.
Cardinal Pietro Parolin (Italy)
Currently serving as the Vatican Secretary of State, Parolin is a seasoned diplomat with extensive experience in church governance. Known for his pragmatic leadership style, he is seen as a continuity candidate who appeals to centrists.
Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle (Philippines)
Tagle is the Pro-Prefect for the Section of First Evangelization of the Dicastery for Evangelization. Warm, charismatic, and media-savvy, he is beloved in Asia and often compared to Pope Francis for his pastoral focus and progressive tone. If elected, he would be the first Asian pope in history.
Cardinal Matteo Zuppi (Italy)
The Archbishop of Bologna and a key envoy in Vatican peace efforts, Zuppi is recognized for his bridge-building and humanitarian work. A pastoral moderate with liberal leanings, he could emerge as a compromise candidate.
Cardinal Peter Turkson (Ghana)
A longtime advocate for social justice and environmental causes, Turkson currently serves as Chancellor of the Pontifical Academy of Sciences. He is highly respected within the global south and would be the first African pope in over 1,500 years.
Cardinal Péter Erdő (Hungary)
Erdő is a traditionalist and scholar who appeals to the more conservative factions within the College of Cardinals. While considered a long shot, he is frequently mentioned as a potential candidate if the conclave leans right.
Pierbattista Pizzaballa (Italy)
He is the Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem, overseeing the Catholic Church’s presence in Israel, Palestine, Jordan, and Cyprus. A Franciscan friar known for his peace efforts and interfaith work in the Holy Land, he offered himself in exchange for Israeli hostages during the 2023 Israel-Hamas conflict. While a theological moderate, his focus on social justice and reconciliation aligns him with the Church’s progressive wing.
Why Are People Betting on the Papal Conclave?
For many, betting on the next pope is a novelty—part entertainment, part cultural event. For others, especially within religious and political circles, it reflects a real interest in the future direction of the Catholic Church. Pope Francis’s legacy included a shift toward inclusivity, environmentalism, and global outreach, and his successor’s identity will likely determine how those priorities evolve.
The Conclave: How Is a New Pope Chosen?
The election of a pope takes place during the conclave, a solemn gathering of the College of Cardinals held in the Sistine Chapel at the Vatican. Only cardinals under the age of 80 are eligible to vote, and in 2025, that group consists of 135 electors from around the world.
The conclave follows a period of official mourning known as the novemdiales, which lasts nine days following the pope's death. According to Vatican protocol, the conclave must begin 15 to 20 days after the seat is declared vacant.
For 2025, the conclave started on May 7 and ended on May 8.
Voting takes place in secret. The cardinals cast paper ballots up to four times daily until one candidate receives a two-thirds majority, at least 90 votes in this conclave.
Habemus Papam
When a decision is reached, white smoke (fumata bianca) billows from the chapel chimney, signaling to the world that a new pope has been chosen. The Vatican announces Habemus Papam, which means "We have a Pope."
Responsible Gambling Reminder
Betting on events like the papal conclave should always be approached with caution and for entertainment purposes only. Outcomes are unpredictable and determined in private by cardinal electors.
If you choose to wager, do so legally and responsibly. Set limits, never bet more than you can afford to lose, and use gambling support resources if needed. In North America, help is available through organizations such as 1-800-GAMBLER.
🤓 Fun Fact: Italy Doesn't Bet On The next Pope, but They Play "FantaPapa" 🇮🇹
Did you know Italian sportsbooks don't offer betting odds on who will be the new pope? It's not strictly illegal, but apparently, it's frowned upon.
However, a new game, Fantapapa, has become widely popular since Pope Francis's death. Tens of thousands of people are playing to guess who will be chosen to sit on Saint Peter's throne. So basically, it's fantasy football, but it's for picking the Pope.
What is Fantapapa?
As wild as it seems, it's pretty much what it sounds like. Fantasypapa is a free online fantasy game inspired by fantasy football, where players select a team of 11 cardinals they believe are most likely to be elected the next pope. Each player must also choose a “captain” (their top pick) and a “goalkeeper” (the least likely candidate).
In addition to assembling their team, players predict the new pope’s name, ideological leanings (progressive or conservative), the date of election, and the number of voting rounds it will take. Over 60,000 people in Italy participate in the game before the upcoming conclave.
And now you know.
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