Just as David beat Goliath, the gamers beat the books this NFL season thanks to the best record for favorites in 20 years. This season, the favorites went 196-76 SU (72.1%), the highest win percentage since 2005 when favorites held a 188-63 SU record (74.9%). All those wins hit sportsbooks hard.
According to Flutter, owners of sportsbook FanDuel, 2024 revenues were down an estimated $370 million thanks to "the most customer-friendly season since the launch of online sports betting". The real kick in the pants for books wasn't just to customers betting favorites straight up on the moneyline but those who combined them in parlays and same-game parlays.
And look, FanDuel wasn't the only big loser. Draft Kings also reported the same negative trend stating it was the "worst in company history".
The Biggest "Hit"
The worst period for books was from weeks 13 through 18 when favorites went 73-20 SU (78.5%). Week 17 was particularly tough for the books, as the favorites went 15-1, with the Giants pulling off the only upset in a 45-33 win over the Indianapolis Colts.
With all due respect to the books, they can find me playing the world's tiniest violin with this news. Flutter generated $3.2 billion in Q3 revenues in 2024, $2.5 million more than in 2023. Draft Kings' EBITDA in 2024 ranged from $240 to $280 million. They're still printing money!
And it's only going to get more lucrative for them. Missouri legalized sports gambling in 2024 with an expected launch in mid-2025, Alberta is expected to legalize sports gambling soon, and now Texas has been put in play for 2025 after Governor Greg Abbott stated he's open to legalizing the practice in the Lone Star State.
The House Always Wins
Despite taking the biggest "L" since sports gambling has been legalized across North America and the little guy getting a taste of success, books still pulled in incredible revenues. Remember, the house always wins.
The 2024 NFL season wraps up this weekend with Super Bowl 59 where the Philadephia Eagles challenge back-to-back champs the Kansas City Chiefs in New Orleans. The Chiefs are favored at -120 on the moneyline and given -105 odds to cover a -1.5 point spread.
Despite a historic season for the favorites, bettors aren't riding this wave into the Super Bowl. Per BetMGM the Eagles at +110 on the moneyline is the most popular Super Bowl bet, a result that would please the sportsbooks because it represents a big win in the futures market. Again; the house always wins.
Today's Matchups
Related News
