We've passed the All-Star break, so it's time to figure out our MLB second-half betting strategy.
Taking what we've learned from the first half of the season, here are my four MLB second-half bets to make and track:
2nd Half Best Bet: Yankees As Underdogs
The Yankees are struggling. They're 18-21 since the start of June and have fallen out of the top spot in the AL East. But, that doesn't mean you should be down on them — especially not when New York are underdogs.
The Yanks are 11-5 as underdogs this season (with a league-best 69% win rate), good for +8.46 units of profit. They’re actually 15-6 dating back to last season as dogs, too.
Obviously, the Yankees have been favored in a large majority of their games, so we don't have too many opportunities to capitalize on this trend. But, with New York's recent struggles, I expect they'll be underdogs a few times coming out of the gate — especially in a late-July series against the Phillies. So, let's back the Yankees when books think they're down and out.
Second-Half MLB Betting Tools
2nd Half Best Bet: Guardians At Home
The Cleveland Guardians are unbeatable at home — so let's bet on that home cooking in the second half. The Guardians have a league-best 30-11 record at home, so far, and are +11.6 units in that situation in 2024.
The Guardians’ players and manager Stephen Vogt credit the Cleveland home crowd. The Guards are currently averaging just over 25,000 fans per game. That mark ranks 22nd in the MLB, but it’s 2,000 more than they averaged last year and 8,000 more fans per game than in 2022.
“The fans are creating a home field advantage for us," Vogt said. "I really do think so. The crows are loud, they’re into it.”
This trend is especially important because 40 of the Guardians’ final 67 games (60%) will be at home. So, consider betting on Cleveland in those home games outright and locking in some futures bets on the Guards for the second half. I love the Guardians OVER 91.5 total wins (-130).
2nd Half Best Bet: Anyone But Aaron Judge To Win AL MVP
If Aaron Judge stays healthy, he’s gonna run away with the AL MVP.
Judge currently leads the league in homers (34), RBI (85), OBP (.433), and OPS (1.112). His 6.4 WAR in the first 96 games of the season gives him a 10.8 WAR pace, even higher than his 2022 total when he bashed 62 homers.
But, that health is a massive question mark. Judge is currently in his ninth MLB season, and he’s played over 120 games in just three of his previous eight campaigns (37.5%). We've already seen Judge narrowly miss injury this year.
All we need is one three or four-week injury to Judge, and someone else can take the AL MVP. With top MLB sportsbooks offering +270 odds on ANY other player but Judge to win AL MVP this year, I'm taking that chance.
X-rays and CT scans came back negative on Aaron Judge.
— Yankees Videos (@snyyankees) June 19, 2024
Source: Aaron Judge pic.twitter.com/9nbJoKvY8n
2nd Half Best Bet: Cal Raleigh On The Road
Cal Raleigh has become a road warrior. The Mariners catcher has 16 of his 20 homers on the road and a .872 OPS away from Seattle (compared to .685 at home). He's got hits in 55% of his road games and homers in over 29% of them.
This isn’t just a random blip for Raleigh, either. He’s had a higher road OPS and hit more road homers the past two seasons, as well. The Mariners have the most pitching-friendly park in baseball, with T-Mobile Park averaging 17% fewer runs than any other stadium. So, Raleigh's success away from Seattle makes sense and it’s something we can capitalize on.
Raleigh’s average OVER 0.5 HR line has been around +250 (implied odds of 28.5%), so with Raleigh hitting homers in over 29% of his road games this year, there’s value to betting him going yard when not in Seattle.
