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Aaron Judge vs Cody Bellinger Betting Props

Leading their respective leagues in home runs, 25-year-old Aaron Judge and 21-year-old Cody Bellinger have set Major League Baseball on fire. The two rookies have combined to slug 50 long balls this season and they’re both on pace to beat the rookie home run record set by Mark McGwire back in 1987 when Big Mac went yard 49 times – these are very exciting times to be a baseball fan.

Bovada has set lines for whether either bomber will be able to eclipse McGwire’s 30-year-old record and if you’re an optimist, there’s plenty of value hanging over the plate with the option for both of them to get to 50 home runs being offered at +1000.

While their first-half feats are impressive, however, it would take near superhuman efforts to keep it up over the course of the season and it’s probable that they both come up short of McGwire’s record – possibly by a lot.

The grind of a 162-game schedule is cited frequently for slumps and can ruin the pace of even the most established major league sluggers. Judge and Bellinger may be full of piss and vinegar but it seems no one is immune to the dog days of summer, not even Mark McGwire.

Heading into the 1987 Midsummer Classic, Big Red had slugged 33 home runs and he was the toast of baseball. Most thought he’d finish the season with at least 60 but, alas, he went on to have an underwhelming second half, hitting just 16 the rest of the year.

Judge and Bellinger have the God-given talents and frames to become the two most prodigious home run hitters in baseball but to think they’ll easily break the half-century plateau is more than a little ignorant. They’ve both racked up huge strikeout totals in their short MLB tenures and as they see pitchers for the second, third and fourth times, those numbers will only climb.

With every at-bat, opposing pitchers are learning more and more about the two rookies and the probability that both will experience a slump at some point is high – expect Judge and Bellinger to both cool down significantly after the all-star break.

As for the home run competition between the two, does one have the edge over the other? It’s a little early in their careers to tell, but Judge’s .330 average indicates that he might be a better pure hitter and his massive stature leads to easy power. Bellinger, who’s hitting .271, relies on more of an uppercut swing that – in theory – is easier for pitchers to adjust to.

Given that analysis and his two-homer lead in the race, I’d give the edge to the Bronx Bomber and Bovada agrees, pegging the Yankee monster with a -200 line to finish 2017 with more home runs than his L.A. counterpart.

One thing that can’t be debated, though, is that these two are electrifying the two biggest markets in baseball and I for one am praying to the leather-bound gods that they continue to rake.

Who Will Break Mark McGWire's Rookie Regular-Season HR Record of 49?
  • Aaron Judge Only +250
  • Cody Bellinger Only +500
  • Both Aaron Judge and Cody Bellinger +1000
  • Neither Aaron Judge nor Cody Bellinger -200
Odds as of June 27 at Bovada
Who Will Have More Home runs in the 2017 Regular Season?
  • Aaron Judge -200
  • Cody Bellinger +150
Odds as of June 27 at Bovada